🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

In the 900-inhabitant village of Frankenstein (yes, that's really its name!) in Rhineland-Palatinate, the only (!) CDU member of the municipal council, Monika Schirdewahn, and her husband, the only AfD member of that council, formed a caucus called "Fortschritt Frankenstein" back in 2019, but she was immediately expelled from her party.

In Luther City Eisleben in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU formed a coalition with the AfD. After a news magazine discovered that Martin Ahrendt of the AfD faction was a convicted Neonazi, who regularly shares right-wig extremist content on Facebook, the CDU cancelled the cooperation.

[beesley]

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

That doesn't explain, though, how Linke + AfD became the two strongest parties in the last state election. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Well, it kinda does. I assume beesley knows about the structural strengths of Left and AfD in the East, as the AfD became second largest party in all Eastern states (excluding Berlin).

Indeed I do.

[Former President tack50]

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

In the 900-inhabitant village of Frankenstein (yes, that's really its name!) in Rhineland-Palatinate, the only (!) CDU member of the municipal council, Monika Schirdewahn, and her husband, the only AfD member of that council, formed a caucus called "Fortschritt Frankenstein" back in 2019, but she was immediately expelled from her party.

In Luther City Eisleben in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU formed a coalition with the AfD. After a news magazine discovered that Martin Ahrendt of the AfD faction was a convicted Neonazi, who regularly shares right-wig extremist content on Facebook, the CDU cancelled the cooperation.

That Saxony-Anhalt city comes the closest to what I was thinking, but is that really it? I am surprised Germany doesn't have more of the uber weird local results compared to here; or that AfD doesn't have an overall mayority (or even just an elected mayor) in some rural Saxony village of like 50 people.

Like I said our far right controlled 3 rural villages of 50 people even when polling at 0.2%. And I am aware of some bizarre results in local elections in the past, with the most hilarious one being an IU-Falange coalition in some Andalusian village in 2007.

[Astatine]

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

In the 900-inhabitant village of Frankenstein (yes, that's really its name!) in Rhineland-Palatinate, the only (!) CDU member of the municipal council, Monika Schirdewahn, and her husband, the only AfD member of that council, formed a caucus called "Fortschritt Frankenstein" back in 2019, but she was immediately expelled from her party.

In Luther City Eisleben in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU formed a coalition with the AfD. After a news magazine discovered that Martin Ahrendt of the AfD faction was a convicted Neonazi, who regularly shares right-wig extremist content on Facebook, the CDU cancelled the cooperation.

That Saxony-Anhalt city comes the closest to what I was thinking, but is that really it? I am surprised Germany doesn't have more of the uber weird local results compared to here; or that AfD doesn't have an overall mayority (or even just an elected mayor) in some rural Saxony village of like 50 people.

Like I said our far right controlled 3 rural villages of 50 people even when polling at 0.2%. And I am aware of some bizarre results in local elections in the past, with the most hilarious one being an IU-Falange coalition in some Andalusian village in 2007.

German local politics is often dominated by numerous voter associations, civic initiatives and interest groups ("Wählergruppen", "Freie Wähler" -> some organizations formed an own centrist-populist party that had some electoral success in Bavaria, Brandenburg and on EU level), and in many local councils there is no formalized coalition but rather a loose cooperation depending on the issue, and sometimes there are fully "wild majorities". Closest comparison to the Free Voters would be the "STAN" alliance (mayor and independents) in Czechia.

The only real cooperation I could directly find seems to happen in Pirna in Saxony, where AfD, Free Voters and another local group have an overall majority in the city council (https://www.mdr.de/sachsen/dresden/freital-pirna/kommunalwahlen-pirna-chemnitz-afd-ein-jahr-100.html), but if I understood correctly, it is more of a loose majority than a formalized agreement.

My home state offers two of the most obscure colorful coalitions on local level, both involving the FDP, which has a lot of members who back the horseshoe theory. In the Saarlouis County Council, there is a "R2G2" coalition (SPD, Left, Greens, FDP) and in the city of Schiffweiler, a Jamaica-purple-haze-orange juice/confused rainbow/acid trip coalition of CDU, Left, FDP, Greens and Free Voters has been governing for almost 2 years now (this weird alliance had exactly one seat more than the Social Democrats).

CDU and Left ("black-dark red") have also cooperated in some municipalities in the East, for instance by backing the same mayoral candidates, but I don't think there is any example of a formalized coalition.

There is also an example for a cooperation of AfD and the Left in the city of Forst (https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/gemeinsames-projekt-mit-der-afd-der-tabubruch-in-der-lausitz-beschaeftigt-die-linke/25873718.html). The AfD and the Left vote together on some occasions in Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland, too (reducing kindergarten fees and cutting income of state broadcaster bosses). I guess that's what some would call a "Ribbentrop Molotov pact"?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Looking at that Thuringia poll, and given that a negative majority seems almost a certainty again; I wonder when will any German state eventually "bite the bullet" and go with some sort of CDU-FDP-AfD coalition (doesn't even need to be a proper coalition, standard toleration would work).

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Honestly cordon sanitaires are unsustainable and eventually end up backfiring.

Disagree. They work just well.

I'd rather have AfD giving external support with 10% of the vote, than it growing to 25% because "all parties are the same, they don't care about us" and them getting to lead a minority government of some sort or more likely forcing dumb coalitions like CDU-Linke (or eventually 50% but I will admit the party growing that much is nearly impossible).

There is no guarantee that the AfD will lose support once in power. Quite the contrary is possible. 

And even if we hypothetically assume that such a guarantee exists, there is still one important point to consider: In the first scenario (AfD at 25% but maintaining total opposition), the only real downside is that the other parties will have a harder time forming a coalition. In the second scenario (AfD at 10% but providing outside support), (a) the AfD's racist and xenophobic positions are legitimized; (b) the AfD has actual power over policy-making; (c) the AfD can blackmail the ruling coalition at any time.

I have no doubt which scenario is better for German democracy.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The CDU MV nominated their gubernatorial candidate on Saturday: Michael Sack. This personnel matter isn't a pivotal nomination whatsoever, but I find his political background quite interesting: Sack is not only the state chair of the CDU MV, he is also the county commissioner of Vorpommern-Greifswald County. I mean how many chancellors and minister presidents have been county commissioner before? Does anybody know an American president or governor who had held such a post before their big career began?

It's moreover interesting that Steve Urkel's white twin brother Philipp Amthor, who has been selected as the top candidate of the party's list for the federal election at the state convention, comes from the same county as Michael Sack. Vorpommern-Greifswald County is the stronghold of the AfD within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where it became the second-strongest party in in 2016; that county encompasses all constituencies the AfD won in that state election.

[Former President tack50]

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Disagree. They work just well.

Not really, just look at Thuringia. The fact that there is a negative majority there means the cordon sanitaire has 100% unambiguously failed. There is no question about that.

There is no guarantee that the AfD will lose support once in power. Quite the contrary is possible. 

And even if we hypothetically assume that such a guarantee exists, there is still one important point to consider: In the first scenario (AfD at 25% but maintaining total opposition), the only real downside is that the other parties will have a harder time forming a coalition. In the second scenario (AfD at 10% but providing outside support), (a) the AfD's racist and xenophobic positions are legitimized; (b) the AfD has actual power over policy-making; (c) the AfD can blackmail the ruling coalition at any time.

I have no doubt which scenario is better for German democracy.

Yeah I know there is no guarantee that they'd go down after a coalition but they are a party that gets 15% of the vote and up to 25% in certain states. Given just how many people vote for them, why shouldn't they be normalized gradually?

Linke was also not normalized at one point and that was a mistake in my opinion; leading to the disastrous grand coalitions of 2005 (Red-Red-Green or Traffic Lights should have been the pick there) and to a lesser extent 2013 (R2G had a majority though I'll admit going for it would have been slightly undemocratic)

[Estrella]

Not really, just look at Thuringia. The fact that there is a negative majority there means the cordon sanitaire has 100% unambiguously failed. There is no question about that.

"Negative majority" only applies in a strictly practical sense that it makes government formation somewhat harder. Ramelow is no Thälmann and the impasse in Thuringia (which is, like a large part of German politics, only glorified kabuki) is hardly comparable to situation in Weimar Republic.

[buritobr]

"Bloc" was a bad word. Of course, CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD don't build a bloc. There was never also a SPD, Grünen and Linke bloc at the federal leval.
But I compared the sum CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD to the sum SPD+Grünen+Linke in order to verify if the pendulum of the voter's preference is more to the left or to the right, and according to the sums, the right performs better. Usually the sum of the right has 51% and the sum of the left is 43%.
But it would be interesting to check which parties are inside the "Sonstige" which is the not negligible 6%. If "Sonstige" was a single party, it would have seats. We have to see if most of this 6% of "Sonstige" is to the left or to the right.

[President Johnson]

Furthermore, I think the FDP can't necessarily be counted as part of the right-wing bloc. They're pretty liberal on social issues and staunchly oppose nationalism and the AfD. And while the Union and FDP once were "dream partners" that has changed in recent years both due personell and platforms. They're no longer as close as they once were. It will be interesting to see whether a traffic light coalition also becomes a serious option in BaWü after the election. The FDP has indicated to be open for talks, in stark contrast to 2016.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Bloc" was a bad word. Of course, CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD don't build a bloc. There was never also a SPD, Grünen and Linke bloc at the federal leval.
But I compared the sum CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD to the sum SPD+Grünen+Linke in order to verify if the pendulum of the voter's preference is more to the left or to the right, and according to the sums, the right performs better. Usually the sum of the right has 51% and the sum of the left is 43%.
But it would be interesting to check which parties are inside the "Sonstige" which is the not negligible 6%. If "Sonstige" was a single party, it would have seats. We have to see if most of this 6% of "Sonstige" is to the left or to the right.

That's a pretty one-dimensional way of looking at things and ignores the fact that - at least according to pretty much every opinion poll - the clear of majority of CDU/CSU and FDP voters would prefer working with SPD or Greens over cooperating with the AfD. Hell, a significant chunk of CDU/CSU and FDP voters would most likely cease to be CDU/CSU and FDP voters if said parties started working with the AfD, rendering your entire point a bit moot.

Lumping CDU/CSU, FDP, and AfD together in the same basket and for some reason artificially labeling them as "the right" completely misses the complexities of politics. One could very well argue that there are not two "blocs", "camps" or whatever of parties, but in fact four: 1) CDU/CSU+FDP, 2) SPD+Greens, 3) Left, 4) AfD. And the distance between CDU/CSU/FDP and AfD is about as large as the distance between CDU/CSU/FDP and SPD/Greens - not just measured in their (un)willingness to cooperate with each other, but in hard political issues.

For instance, if you go to the "Wahl-o-mat" for the upcoming Rhineland-Palatinate state election, CDU and SPD completely agree on 19 out of the 38 political issues presented there, CDU and AfD agree on 21 (perhaps more interestingly, the "complete agreements" between SPD and Left there amount to 12, putting the social democrats closer to the CDU).

Granted, this might not necessarily be true for (rural) eastern Germany where CDU/FDP and AfD seem in fact to be "culturally" closer to each other. But then again eastern Germany is not the entire country. More like the exception to the rule.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The answer is: 'Never' - especially not with the AfD being a Verdachtsfall for the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. It is more likely that the party gets dissolved than that the CDU will ever enter into a state level cooperation. Let alone the FDP (for which it would be political suicide).

Even CDU-LINKE is ten times more likely. And it is unlikely enough.

Disagree. They work just well.

Not really, just look at Thuringia. The fact that there is a negative majority there means the cordon sanitaire has 100% unambiguously failed. There is no question about that.

Quite the contrary! There is no 'negative majority' of any sort, just a little bit of political theater until the CDU/CSU decides to tolerate Ramelow's R2G "for the sake of democracy". Estrella is spot on here.

The AfD, by contrast, remains powerless and completely isolated. As it should be.

Yeah I know there is no guarantee that they'd go down after a coalition but they are a party that gets 15% of the vote and up to 25% in certain states. Given just how many people vote for them, why shouldn't they be normalized gradually?

They got 12.6% of the vote. Four years ago. They currently poll between 9.0% and 11.0%. In addition, their last state election results were pretty bad (they almost missed the electoral threshold in Hamburg), they are on track to underperform their 2016 results in BW and RLP this week, and only poll around 6.0% in NRW, Germany's most populous state...

Also, nobody cares if the AfD occasionally gets 20+% in the East German wilderness. But everybody would care if one of the other parties were to break up the cordon sanitaire. Basically all relevant actors agree that integrating the AfD into the political system would have devastating consequences; not only for German democracy but also for the parties doing it. It would completely delegitimize them and tear them apart.

Linke was also not normalized at one point and that was a mistake in my opinion; leading to the disastrous grand coalitions of 2005 (Red-Red-Green or Traffic Lights should have been the pick there) and to a lesser extent 2013 (R2G had a majority though I'll admit going for it would have been slightly undemocratic)

Indeed, but the public perception of LINKE and AfD is fundamentally different: The LINKE is often treated with suspicion but the AfD with outright contempt and hatred. It is by far the most toxic party in Germany's post-war history (with the exception of the NPD perhaps).
__________

Edit: I fully agree with what Old Europe has written on the 'bloc question'. There are literally zero similarities between a socially liberal but fiscally conservative party like the FDP (which is not right-wing!) and the quasi-socialist neo-nazis of the AfD. Zero.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

They got 12.6% of the vote. Four years ago. They currently poll between 9.0% and 11.0%. In addition, their last state election results were pretty bad (they almost missed the electoral threshold in Hamburg).

You could as well have written that the AfD is only one of two parties (if you consider the Union one party: three), in the near future maybe even the only party, that is represented in each and every state parliament, that even managed to get re-elected into the Bürgerschaften of states where the Antifa controls all four divisions of power.

It is by far the most toxic party in Germany's post-war history (with the exception of the NPD perhaps). [...]Edit: I fully agree with what Old Europe has written on the 'bloc question'. There are literally zero similarities between a socially liberal but fiscally conservative party like the FDP (which is not right-wing!) and the quasi-socialist neo-nazis of the AfD. Zero.

That blatantly wrong. The FDP is clearly right-wing; the party even deems itself to be right-wing; that's why they sit to the right of the Union in the Bundestag. The FDP is de facto the successor party to the NSDAP as measured by the number of its former NSDAP members, which is why the Allies even wanted to prohibit the FDP initially. I find it also interesting that your Antifa sometimes deems their foes from the FDP to be neoliberal, and sometimes "quasi-socialist", depending on the suitableness for your "argumentation"...
Moreover, the AfD isn't nearly as right-wing as the CDU, CSU an FDP of 2000.

[Former President tack50]

I appreciate the responses from the German posters in this thread (and its sister). I guess I am just going to have to agree to disagree

Tbh it doesn't help that I have a big allergy to grand coalitions other than in very limited circumstances since they kill the junior partner (which happened to be the SPD in Germany) and make extreme parties increase; as well as for some reason me perhaps wrongly seeing the rise of Grüne at least partially as a symbol and clearest example of everything wrong with the modern (European) left (losing working class voters in favour of wealthy bourgeoise voters in cities and hipstery youths).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I appreciate the responses from the German posters in this thread (and its sister). I guess I am just going to have to agree to disagree

Tbh it doesn't help that I have a big allergy to grand coalitions other than in very limited circumstances since they kill the junior partner (which happened to be the SPD in Germany) and make extreme parties increase; as well as for some reason me perhaps wrongly seeing the rise of Grüne at least partially as a symbol and clearest example of everything wrong with the modern (European) left (losing working class voters in favour of wealthy bourgeoise voters in cities and hipstery youths).

The SPD also kills the CDU on the other hand, if the Christian Democrats act as their junior partner, as it happened in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

[President Johnson]

I appreciate the responses from the German posters in this thread (and its sister). I guess I am just going to have to agree to disagree

Tbh it doesn't help that I have a big allergy to grand coalitions other than in very limited circumstances since they kill the junior partner (which happened to be the SPD in Germany) and make extreme parties increase; as well as for some reason me perhaps wrongly seeing the rise of Grüne at least partially as a symbol and clearest example of everything wrong with the modern (European) left (losing working class voters in favour of wealthy bourgeoise voters in cities and hipstery youths).

The SPD also kills the CDU on the other hand, if the Christian Democrats act as their junior partner, as it happened in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Junior partners are screwed most of the time, especially in governments with high approval ratings. That's just because all the positive news get associated with the head of government. All junior partners under Merkel suffered from this effect, as did The Left in Brandenburg in 2019 or the CDU now in BaWü. There are just few exceptions to the contrary in recent years, like Hesse in 2018, which was an election under different dynamics.

[Pick Up the Phone]

You could as well have written that the AfD is only one of two parties (if you consider the Union one party: three), in the near future maybe even the only party, that is represented in each and every state parliament, that even managed to get re-elected into the Bürgerschaften of states where the Antifa controls all four divisions of power.

Absolutely irrelevant. Strong emphasis on 'irrelevant'. And with all due respect - but you are in need of psychological help if you think that the 'Antifa' is in control of any German state. Unless you are simply referring to the SPD...

https://twitter.com/EskenSaskia/status/1267350240904036354

No, seriously, you overestimate the importance of the AfD. It is a weak and impotent party that has clearly missed its window of opportunity. In terms of actual politics, its existence is only inasmuch relevant as it ensures that the 'traditional blocs' (i.e., CDU/CSU-FDP and SPD-GRÜNE) won't get a majority on their own any time soon. And this obviously helps the CDU.

That blatantly wrong. The FDP is clearly right-wing;

In your dreams perhaps. There is nothing right-wing about the FDP barring some sort of market liberalism. I also don't know any serious political scientist who would classify the FDP that way.

the party even deems itself to be right-wing;

Now, that's something I would want to see. Proof? By the way: 'Bürgerlich' is not right-wing. And neither is 'Mitte' or any related attribute.

that's why they sit to the right of the Union in the Bundestag.

Wow. Party politics is so much easier than I had thought. Thanks for the lesson.

The FDP is de facto the successor party to the NSDAP as measured by the number of its former NSDAP members, which is why the Allies even wanted to prohibit the FDP initially.

Okay, we're definitely in clown cuckoo land now. No. Simply no.

1) The FDP is not a 'successor party to the NSDAP'. What the hell?
2) The number of former NSDAP members in the postwar period is absolutely irrelevant for the party's ideological position in 2021. As you might know, the CDU's 'Ahlener Programm' (1947) also called for 'overcoming capitalism' - I guess that makes it the 'de facto successor party' of the USPD?

Moreover, the AfD isn't nearly as right-wing as the CDU, CSU an FDP of 2000.

You're 100% wrong on this. The AfD is far more right-wing than both CDU and FDP ever were. Neither CDU nor FDP ever referred to the Nazi era as 'a speck of bird poop' (Alexander Gauland) or engaged in völkisch lines of argument.

But getting political ideologies right is simply not your strength I guess.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

But getting political ideologies right is simply not your strength I guess.

This user is on my ignore list since he started to derail threads in German because some people criticized him for hating Muslims (while calling himself "left-wing"). You have good points.

[Tender Branson]

Some surprising late developments for the state elections in BW and RP on Sunday:

# in BW, the Greens are now 8-10% ahead of the CDU, after a close race a few months ago
# the FDP is rising slightly (+ above 2016 levels) and maybe even the AfD (but below 2016)
# Left still projected below the threshold
# SPD is where it always has been

# in RP, the SPD seems to have pulled ahead of the CDU by a few points, thanks to the MaLu Dreyer incumbency bonus (same as before the 2016 election).
# Green voters are getting cold feet, won’t vote for the unknown and vote SPD instead (in fact, the Greens dropped from 20% a year ago to 10% now - while the SPD gained the same).
# AfD maybe rising slightly, but all within the MoE and below 2016
# FDP falling slightly again after some increase in the last few weeks
# the big surprise could be the centrist, municipal-based Free Voters - who seem to gain CDU and FDP voters and could get close to the 5% threshold

[Lord Halifax]

Some surprising late developments for the state elections in BW and RP on Sunday:

# in BW, the Greens are now 8-10% ahead of the CDU, after a close race a few months ago
# the FDP is rising slightly (+ above 2016 levels) and maybe even the AfD (but below 2016)
# Left still projected below the threshold
# SPD is where it always has been

# in RP, the SPD seems to have pulled ahead of the CDU by a few points, thanks to the MaLu Dreyer incumbency bonus (same as before the 2016 election).
# Green voters are getting cold feet, won’t vote for the unknown and vote SPD instead (in fact, the Greens dropped from 20% a year ago to 10% now - while the SPD gained the same).
# AfD maybe rising slightly, but all within the MoE and below 2016
# FDP falling slightly again after some increase in the last few weeks
# the big surprise could be the centrist, municipal-based Free Voters - who seem to gain CDU and FDP voters and could get close to the 5% threshold

Will it hurt Laschet's chances of becoming the Unions' Chancellor candidate if the CDU loses both elections?

[Tender Branson]

Some surprising late developments for the state elections in BW and RP on Sunday:

# in BW, the Greens are now 8-10% ahead of the CDU, after a close race a few months ago
# the FDP is rising slightly (+ above 2016 levels) and maybe even the AfD (but below 2016)
# Left still projected below the threshold
# SPD is where it always has been

# in RP, the SPD seems to have pulled ahead of the CDU by a few points, thanks to the MaLu Dreyer incumbency bonus (same as before the 2016 election).
# Green voters are getting cold feet, won’t vote for the unknown and vote SPD instead (in fact, the Greens dropped from 20% a year ago to 10% now - while the SPD gained the same).
# AfD maybe rising slightly, but all within the MoE and below 2016
# FDP falling slightly again after some increase in the last few weeks
# the big surprise could be the centrist, municipal-based Free Voters - who seem to gain CDU and FDP voters and could get close to the 5% threshold

Will it hurt Laschet's chances of becoming the Unions' Chancellor candidate if the CDU loses both elections?

Ah yeah, this is still not decided ...

At this point, they should probably run Merkel for another term ...

[Tender Branson]

It seems 2 in 3 voters will be postal voters on Sunday.

In RP, about 50% of eligible voters have requested a postal ballot (today is the last day).

Assuming 90% are returned, that’s a turnout of 45% alone from postal voters - out of an expected 70% in total turnout.

BW has no statewide figures for postal requests, but it’s probably similar as in RP.

[palandio]

Some surprising late developments for the state elections in BW and RP on Sunday:

# in BW, the Greens are now 8-10% ahead of the CDU, after a close race a few months ago
# the FDP is rising slightly (+ above 2016 levels) and maybe even the AfD (but below 2016)
# Left still projected below the threshold
# SPD is where it always has been

# in RP, the SPD seems to have pulled ahead of the CDU by a few points, thanks to the MaLu Dreyer incumbency bonus (same as before the 2016 election).
# Green voters are getting cold feet, won’t vote for the unknown and vote SPD instead (in fact, the Greens dropped from 20% a year ago to 10% now - while the SPD gained the same).
# AfD maybe rising slightly, but all within the MoE and below 2016
# FDP falling slightly again after some increase in the last few weeks
# the big surprise could be the centrist, municipal-based Free Voters - who seem to gain CDU and FDP voters and could get close to the 5% threshold

Will it hurt Laschet's chances of becoming the Unions' Chancellor candidate if the CDU loses both elections?

Ah yeah, this is still not decided ...

At this point, they should probably run Merkel for another term ...

That depends very much on what main reason the CDU/CSU will find for its losses (assuming that they will be losses). Söder's popularity for example has decreased together with the popularity of the restrictive COVID-19 policy, although it is still higher than Laschet's.

Merkel at this point is in my opinion a part of the problem rather than the solution. I'm not saying that it will become better after her, probably it will become worse. But delaying the inevitable won't make it easier.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's interesting that you cite a person who was eaten eaten alive by the Thierse wing of decency of her same party and who was even called incompetent by Willy Brandt's eldest son.
I would also like to tear apart, but you already said multiple time that you are not interested in facts and reliable sources, just like every extremist. Your posts are full of false information and alternative facts, which you do on purpose, and thus it's impossible to argue with you. (And you comrade Hash would mutilate my reply, anyway.)
Someone who reasons themselves, against common knowledge, into thinking that the FDP weren't a right-wing party and that the CDU'S and FDP's of the early 2000's had been left-wing can't be a serious interlocutor for a political discourse. You just tried persuade yourself of those alternative facts you've been spreading only to justify your screwy and awry world view. If you only tarry in Holger's and meanwhile also Dave forum where you are surrounded by fellow travelers who applaude you for every lie you spread, you'll start to belive yur lies someday...

I also read your comments about Nick Hein, the archfoe of the Antifa for two reasons, in Holger's forum, and I absolutely condemn them, just like I deeply condemn your misogynic, anti-Semitic, homophobic, transphobic, pedophilia-glorifying and violence-glorifying remarks on either forum.

And also:

Fun fact: I'm gay myself Try again.

You're 100% straight of course. That's merely one of your numerous Paulaner Geschichten you excogitated in order to mud your own reality. You just pretended to be gay in order to justify the violence Utlu face from your Migrantifa, thanks to which he is being under police surveillance. Even if you were gay, your homophobic and anti-Semitic stances wouldn't be representative of the gay community whatsoever.

Altas used to be known for its high-quality posts - until you came and dragged it down QAnon-style.

But getting political ideologies right is simply not your strength I guess.

This user is on my ignore list since he started to derail threads in German because some people criticized him for hating Muslims (while calling himself "left-wing"). You have good points, but this poster is absolutely delusional so it probably won't matter.

That's simply slander. I never said I hated Muslims. i only said that Islam is a right-wing ideology and that a plethora (I didn't even say majority) of Muslims living in Europe hold right-wing extremist views and commit disproportionately crimes. And that's just a fact.
What makes your slander against me so disgusting is the fact that there are some Muslims around here, who are very fine and decent people and who have nothing in common with the criminal, terroristic Migrantifa in Europe, and by claiming I hated Muslims in general you intended to set those members against me. And to make it clear, there are also very decent, integrated in Europe, who oppose the criminal acts of their brethren, but those Muslims are threatened, attacked, and even murdered by the Migrantifa, and the Phone-up-picker already confessed that he approves of the violent atroctities against Muslimes who criticze Islam and right-ing Muslims.

I'm glad that this week's quarrel within the SPD, which the decent Thierse wing has clearly sewn up, proved once again that your woke Antifa wing is an absolutely immaterial minority within your party. You must learn that most left-wingers are not left-wing extremists.
My left-wing political views are clearly mainstream, not only within society, but also within the SPD.

There are no globalists running Germany. And I wish there were.

Interesting ... You don't consider the FDP to be right-wing because they are not neoliberal enough for you. I was never aware of the overlap between your Antifa and Neolibs: Globalism. That's why you glorify the FDP so much.

[Flyersfan232]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???