🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. [...] But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.

The past proved otherwise; incumbent governors usually enjoy high favorability ratings; nonetheless that doesn't necessarily affect their party's election results.

Prior to the 2005 Schleswig-Holstein state election, for instance, 51% of the citizens wanted Heide Simonis to remain Governor (as against her CDU contender Peter Harry Carstensen's 37%). In the end, Simonis' SPD narrowly and surprisingly lost the state election.

That same year, the North Rhine-Westphalia state election led to a even more surprising and even more severe defeat of the SPD even though their incumbent Governor Peer Steinbrück was more popular than the eventual winner Jürgen Rüttgers of the CDU; if there had been a direct election of the Governor, Steinbrück would have won it 39%-31%.

The only state election I can remember where an unpopular incumbent governor won re-election was the Hesse Landtag election: Governor Roland Koch trailed his challenger Andrea Ypsilanti owing to his merciless law-and-order stance and his extremely neoliberal and neoconservative worldview, but eventually Koch's CDU eked out an unpredicted win, which led to a year of anarchy until all parties agreed upon snap elections.

[Astatine]

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. [...] But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.

The past proved otherwise; incumbent governors usually enjoy high favorability ratings; nonetheless that doesn't necessarily affect their party's election results.

Prior to the 2005 Schleswig-Holstein state election, for instance, 51% of the citizens wanted Heide Simonis to remain Governor (as against her CDU contender Peter Harry Carstensen's 37%). In the end, Simonis' SPD narrowly and surprisingly lost the state election.

That same year, the North Rhine-Westphalia state election led to a even more surprising and even more severe defeat of the SPD even though their incumbent Governor Peer Steinbrück was more popular than the eventual winner Jürgen Rüttgers of the CDU; if there had been a direct election of the Governor, Steinbrück would have won it 39%-31%.

The only state election I can remember where an unpopular incumbent governor won re-election was the Hesse Landtag election: Governor Roland Koch trailed his challenger Andrea Ypsilanti owing to his merciless law-and-order stance and his extremely neoliberal and neoconservative worldview, but eventually Koch's CDU eked out an unpredicted win, which led to a year of anarchy until all parties agreed upon snap elections.

Yeah, I should've been more precise and refer to elections in the GroKo era since 2013.
To add another election to your list, in 2013, David McAllister had extremely good approval ratings in Lower Saxony and his CDU/FDP coalition only lost by a few thousand votes.

But ever since, there were only 3 cases of Minister-Presidents who really "lost" an election as there was no possibility to govern for their party anymore (excluding Bodo Ramelow with the Kemmerich situation and the two Bremen dudes who resigned after the election but their party retained power): Christine Lieberknecht in 2014, Torsten Albig and Hannelore Kraft in 2017. Their approval ratings were generally okay, but not overwhelming and their lead in direct match-up polling had dwindled.

[Tender Branson]

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. [...] But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.

The past proved otherwise; incumbent governors usually enjoy high favorability ratings; nonetheless that doesn't necessarily affect their party's election results.

Prior to the 2005 Schleswig-Holstein state election, for instance, 51% of the citizens wanted Heide Simonis to remain Governor (as against her CDU contender Peter Harry Carstensen's 37%). In the end, Simonis' SPD narrowly and surprisingly lost the state election.

That same year, the North Rhine-Westphalia state election led to a even more surprising and even more severe defeat of the SPD even though their incumbent Governor Peer Steinbrück was more popular than the eventual winner Jürgen Rüttgers of the CDU; if there had been a direct election of the Governor, Steinbrück would have won it 39%-31%.

The only state election I can remember where an unpopular incumbent governor won re-election was the Hesse Landtag election: Governor Roland Koch trailed his challenger Andrea Ypsilanti owing to his merciless law-and-order stance and his extremely neoliberal and neoconservative worldview, but eventually Koch's CDU eked out an unpredicted win, which led to a year of anarchy until all parties agreed upon snap elections.

The point of Astatine is still valid though:

An upset CDU win might be somewhat likely, but the chances are also there that MaLu Dreyer catches up and overtakes the CDU on Election Day again.

The examples you mentioned include hypothetical direct elections for Governor which were relatively close polling-wise, whereas Dreyer leads Baldauf by a huge 60-20 margin ...

I think some Greens will switch over to the SPD as a result (= the Greens are in a polling bubble right now and will slightly underperform). Maybe even some FDP voters.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But ever since, there were only 3 cases of Minister-Presidents who really "lost" an election as there was no possibility to govern for their party anymore (excluding Bodo Ramelow with the Kemmerich situation and the two Bremen dudes who resigned after the election but their party retained power): Christine Lieberknecht in 2014, Torsten Albig and Hannelore Kraft in 2017. Their approval ratings were generally okay, but not overwhelming and their lead in direct match-up polling had dwindled.

Oh, you shouldn't have mentioned Hannelore Kraft; she's a perfect example of how to destroy your own political future by becoming a snobbish shrew through the power that is accompanied by the Governor's office.
Not only did she pronounce upon the incidents of the infamous New Year's Eve of Cologne, not only was she always reacting snitty and aggressively when she was posed a critical question by news media representatives, no, she also pulled a Ted Cruz; when the city of Münster was hit by disastrous floods in 2014, which claimed two lives, she refused to cut short her vacation. Later she claimed she was tarrying within a dead zone during her stay in Brandenburg, plus she couldn't have thwarted the flooding even if she had returned ahead of schedule...  

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Maybe Integration has gone a bit too far in Germany?

Some cultures are incompatible and just can't integrate and adopt to Western values, it seems.

obvious /s

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Polls for the March 14 Baden-Württemberg state election:



Hypothetical direct gubernatorial election:



Favorability of possible coalitions:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Polls for the March 14 Rhineland-Palatinate state election:



Hypothetical direct gubernatorial election:



Favorability of possible coalitions:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here's another interesting poll regarding either election:



In both cases, the majority of eligible voters are not yet sure about their eventual vote decision.

Furthermore, if I take a look at the favorability of possible coalitions in either election, the FDP seems to have lost their expertise and credibility. Even in Rhineland-Palatinate, the eligible voters seem to get rid of the current Ampel coalition encompassing SPD, Grüne and FDP.

[Astatine]

Both FGW polls are almost one month old tho. Newer ones:

RLP (INSA - 23/02 and Infratest 25/02):

CDU 33 / 31
SPD 31 / 30
Greens 12 / 12
FDP 6 / 7
Left 3 / 3
AfD 9 / 9
Free Voters 3 / 4

BW (INSA - 13/02):

CDU 28
SPD 11
Greens 31
FDP 10
Left 4
AfD 11
Free Voters 1

[President Johnson]

So there was a TV debate yesterday between incumbent Winfried Kretschmann and his CDU challenger Susanne Eisenmann, the sitting Minister of Education. Not much new to learn, Covid essentially took the first half hour of the 60 minute discussion, in which Eisenmann pushed for faster openings in the lockdown. Obviously it remained pretty civil with not a whole lot controversies. I don't see how the debate changes anything, Kretschmann with his 70% approval rating remains the favorite for a third term and Eisenmann is sort of a lackluster candidate.

Other parties were not represented since SPD, AfD and FDP have a nonexistent chance to win the state's top job.

[Astatine]

Btw, Thuringia goes to the polls in September in all likelihood and the current chaotic situation with the R2G minority government reluctantly being supported by CDU is just getting worse, as a new Infratest poll shows (result in 2019 in brackets):

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)
CDU: 22 % (21.7 %)
SPD: 10 % (8.2 %)
FDP: 6 % (5.0 %)
Greens: 5 % (5.2 %)

Ironically, after the whole Kemmerich sh*tshow one year ago it seems as if the FDP is actually recovering from that. Kemmerich announced that he won't lead the FDP list (after being pressured to give up on his claim by the entire national party). The FDP approach of criticizing the increasingly unpopular Covid-19 measures without actively obstructing the government (like the AfD does) seems to pay off, plus with the current recession, they might benefit from usually being perceived as a party which can get the economy on track.

Ramelow's initial bump (The Left was at 40 % shortly after the governmental crisis last year) in polls has completely faded, and his unpopularity is growing. His approval rating is at 51 % with 47 % disapproving, which is bad for German standards. His net approval was at +40 (67 appr./27 disappr.) one year ago. Depending on national trends (as the Thuringia election is held simultaneously with the federal elections, although Germans still love to split their tickets) and how Ramelow will be perceived by then, we'll see whether the Left is able to maintain their #1 spot. I'm inclined to say yes, but the national trend (6-9 % in most polls) is not really in their favor as of now.

Btw, with a seat calculator we'd get the following seat distribution (one under the assumption the Greens fail the 5 % threshold which would be an extremely pathetic result, result from 2019 in brackets, and with the Landtag's normal seat count of 88):

Left: 27 / 28 (29)
AfD: 21 / 23 (22)
CDU: 21 / 22 (21)
SPD: 9 / 10 (8 )
FDP: 5 / 5 (5)
Greens: 5 / 0 (5)

Soooo, let's see which hypothetical coalitions (CDU would never govern with AfD etc., just for the sake of seeing how complicated the situation would be) would be possible (45 seats needed):

Left-CDU: 48 / 50
AfD-CDU-FDP: 47 / 48
Left-SPD-Greens-FDP: 46 / 43
CDU-AfD: 42 / 45
Left-SPD-Green (inc.): 41 / 38
CDU-SPD-FDP-Green: 40 / 37

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, Thuringia goes to the polls in September in all likelihood and the current chaotic situation with the R2G minority government reluctantly being supported by CDU is just getting worse, as a new Infratest poll shows (result in 2019 in brackets):

Wait! Hasn't that already officially been decided and pronounced yet?

Here's the schedule for the upcoming state elections:

• March 14: Baden-Württemberg + Rhineland-Palatinate
• April 25: Thuringia (snap election) (postponed until Federal Election Day)
• June 6: Saxony-Anhalt
• September 26: Federal Election + Mecklenburg-Vorpommern + Thuringia (snap election) + Berlin¹⁾

1) The date for the Berlin state election has not officially been announced yet, though. If the expected election date does hold true, it will mark only the second time after Reunification that both the Bundestag and the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus are to be elected on the same day.

Actually, that's a good idea - not only because they save money in terms of the election procedure owing to synergistic effects.
Furthermore, Thuringia always used to hold its state elections in autumn/fall. I don't like the idea of changing the season during which an election is usually held due to the occurrence of a snap election.
Something similar happened in Hesse, when the state government suddenly changed the "election season" in 2013, effectively ending the state government's legislative period ahead of schedule because they wanted to hold the state election contemporaneously with the federal election. 😒

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, Thuringia goes to the polls in September in all likelihood and the current chaotic situation with the R2G minority government reluctantly being supported by CDU is just getting worse, as a new Infratest poll shows (result in 2019 in brackets):

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)
CDU: 22 % (21.7 %)
SPD: 10 % (8.2 %)
FDP: 6 % (5.0 %)
Greens: 5 % (5.2 %)

Not only the numbers for the Left Party have been shrinking more and more, the same goes for Governor Ramelow's numbers; he is still leading by huge margins, but they have also steadily been shrinking, and for the first time, a majority of Thuringians doesn't want him as their head of government anymore. 🤗

[Astatine]

Infratest polls from RLP and BW!

RLP

Voting intention:
SPD: 30 %
CDU: 28 %
Greens: 12 %
FDP: 9 %
AfD: 9 %
Free Voters: 5 %
Left: 3 %

Preferred Minister-President:
Dreyer (SPD): 53 %
Baldauf (CDU): 29 %

Satisfaction with State Government (SPD, FDP, Greens):
Satisfied: 56 %
Dissatisfied: 41 %

Approval ratings of candidates:
Dreyer (SPD): 61/33 (+28)
Schmitt (FDP): 15/13 (+2)
Baldauf (CDU): 31/32 (-1)
Frisch (AfD): 9/15 (-6)
Spiegel (Greens): 26/36 (-10)

BW

Voting intention:
Greens: 33 %
CDU: 25 %
AfD: 12 %
SPD: 10 %
FDP: 10 %
Left: 4 %

Preferred Minister-President:
Kretschmann (Greens): 65 %
Eisenmann (CDU): 17 %

Satisfaction with State Government (Greens, CDU):
Satisfied: 59 %
Dissatisfied: 38 %

Approval ratings of candidates:
Kretschmann (Greens): 67/29 (+38)
Storch (SPD): 21/24 (-3)
Rülke (FDP): 14/24 (-10)
Gölgel (AfD): 9/19 (-10)
Eisenmann (CDU): 21/55 (-34)

https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/wahl/rp/landtagswahl-2021/rheinland-pfalz-trend-februar-2021-100.html
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wuerttemberg/bw-trend/umfrage-sonntagsfrage-infratest-dimap-landtagswahl-04-maerz-2021-100.html

[President Johnson]

More polls for RP and BW:







Tagesschau

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.

[Astatine]

More polls for RP and BW:

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.

Ha, I was a bit quicker!

Agreed, RLP looks like a redux of 2016 in terms of the Social Democrats' recovery. Kind of surprised that a Free Voter Association could make it into a Landtag beyond Bavaria and Brandenburg, but we'll see whether they'll actually make it.

As Hades pointed out with regards to the previous polls, the voting behavior of most FDP voters is kind of syncretic. In RLP both in 2016 and now, they seem to prefer a CDU led government over one led by SPD, but the Liberals gain instead of losing support. Might be connected to their nationwide recovery. Could very well see them break 10 % again in the federal elections if the current trend holds on.

RLP would probably be a traffic light coalition once again, while the result in BW both allows a Green-Black and a traffic light coalition. A return of Green-Red, a Green-Yellow majority and a "Germany coalition" of CDU, SPD and FDP are within the margin of error though (doubt the latter two are realistic).

[President Johnson]

More polls for RP and BW:

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.

Ha, I was a bit quicker!

Agreed, RLP looks like a redux of 2016 in terms of the Social Democrats' recovery. Kind of surprised that a Free Voter Association could make it into a Landtag beyond Bavaria and Brandenburg, but we'll see whether they'll actually make it.

As Hades pointed out with regards to the previous polls, the voting behavior of most FDP voters is kind of syncretic. In RLP both in 2016 and now, they seem to prefer a CDU led government over one led by SPD, but the Liberals gain instead of losing support. Might be connected to their nationwide recovery. Could very well see them break 10 % again in the federal elections if the current trend holds on.

RLP would probably be a traffic light coalition once again, while the result in BW both allows a Green-Black and a traffic light coalition. A return of Green-Red, a Green-Yellow majority and a "Germany coalition" of CDU, SPD and FDP are within the margin of error though (doubt the latter two are realistic).

It will be interesting to see which coalition is formed in Baden-Württemberg. Unlike in 2016, the FDP actually indicated to be open for talks with Greens and the SPD. I'd definitely prefer a traffic light coalition to the current since the CDU is often blocking good policy. Not to mention how poorly Eisenmann has handled schools in the pandemic compared to other states.

"Germany coalition" is definitely not happening, especially if the Greens come in first again, which is very likely at this point. It's plain obvious voters want Kretschmann at helm and expect the parties to act accordingly. I just wonder whether he'll serve the full term or retire a year or two ahead of the next election to allow his successor to run as the incumbent MP. However, their bench is rather thin at this point, or at least there is nobody who's well known and widely popular. Personally I'd prefer Cem Özdemir, who's a prime example for successful integration and a center-left pragmatist.

[Cassius]

The AfD seems pretty strong in BW by West German standards (if I recall correctly they got about 15% here in 2016, although that was at the peak of the migrant crisis) - any particular reason for that, such as disgruntled CDU/FDP conservatives?

[beesley]

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)

Gosh, something went wrong here. Any reason other than being the former East Germany why those two are so strong in the first place?

[Astatine]

The AfD seems pretty strong in BW by West German standards (if I recall correctly they got about 15% here in 2016, although that was at the peak of the migrant crisis) - any particular reason for that, such as disgruntled CDU/FDP conservatives?

BW always had a base for right-wing populists that either didn't turn out or voted CDU most likely. The Republicans managed to get into the Landtag in 1992 and 1996 with 9-10 %, and the NPD received almost 10 % in 1968. I guess the CDU also was quite right wing, considering that they had former Nazis like Kiesinger or Filbinger serving as Minister-Presidents.

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)

Gosh, something went wrong here. Any reason other than being the former East Germany why those two are so strong in the first place?

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

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The AfD seems pretty strong in BW by West German standards (if I recall correctly they got about 15% here in 2016, although that was at the peak of the migrant crisis) - any particular reason for that, such as disgruntled CDU/FDP conservatives?

BW always had a base for right-wing populists that either didn't turn out or voted CDU most likely. The Republicans managed to get into the Landtag in 1992 and 1996 with 9-10 %, and the NPD received almost 10 % in 1968. I guess the CDU also was quite right wing, considering that they had former Nazis like Kiesinger or Filbinger serving as Minister-Presidents.

Don't disregard the fact that the vast majority of Swabian Greens are esoteric, spiritual globule gobblers, staunch anti-vaxxers and believers in homeopathy, breatharianism and "Germanic medicine". Nowhere in the whole of Germany are AfD voters as similar to Greenservatives as in Swabia. I wouldn't even be surprise if we experience a green-blue coalition one day. (Ironically, in basically all cultures these two colors used to be perceived as the same; in Japan, they even "invented" the color green only some decades ago in order to keep up with the Western world.)
My going-out-on-a-limb theory is that this is the aftermath of the Tambora eruption...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

That doesn't explain, though, how Linke + AfD became the two strongest parties in the last state election. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Astatine]

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

That doesn't explain, though, how Linke + AfD became the two strongest parties in the last state election. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Well, it kinda does. I assume beesley knows about the structural strengths of Left and AfD in the East, as the AfD became second largest party in all Eastern states (excluding Berlin). And in every of the most recent state elections in the East the party of the incumbent Minister-President became largest party which can (not completely but mostly) be attributed to non-AfD voters trying to avoid that the AfD becomes the strongest force in their state by strengthening the incumbent. I guess I'll do an extra #analysis on the strength of incumbents in state elections.

Don't disregard the fact that the vast majority of Swabian Greens are esoteric, spiritual globule gobblers, staunch anti-vaxxers and believers in breatharianism and "Germanic medicine". Nowhere in the whole of Germany are AfD voters as similar to Greenservatives as in Swabia. I wouldn't even be surprise if we experience a green-blue coalition one day. (Ironically, in basically all cultures these two colors used to be perceived as the same; in Japan, they even "invented" the color green only some decades ago in order to keep up with the Western world.)
My going-out-on-a-limb theory is that this is the aftermath of the Tambora eruption...

Yeah, that's a phenomenon not only affecting the Greens, but also other parties in Swabia. I am aware of at least one federal FDP MP who (at least privately) staunchly opposes the party's stance on homeopathy and favors that globuli still get covered by health insurances. BW also happens to be one of the states where the ÖDP, the completely batsh#t version of the Greens, is naturally stronger (BW has the second highest number of elected ÖDP officials besides Bavaria).

[Former President tack50]

Looking at that Thuringia poll, and given that a negative majority seems almost a certainty again; I wonder when will any German state eventually "bite the bullet" and go with some sort of CDU-FDP-AfD coalition (doesn't even need to be a proper coalition, standard toleration would work)

Honestly cordon sanitaires are unsustainable and eventually end up backfiring. I'd rather have AfD giving external support with 10% of the vote, than it growing to 25% because "all parties are the same, they don't care about us" and them getting to lead a minority government of some sort or more likely forcing dumb coalitions like CDU-Linke (or eventually 50% but I will admit the party growing that much is nearly impossible).

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why are the free voters big in Bavaria but no where else and is it possible for them to be in federal politics???

That's wrong! In the latest two Brandenburg state elections they each won a direct seat - in two different constituencies.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, they are poised to enter the Landtag this weekend.
In Baden-Württemberg, they are very influential on the community level.

The Free Voters began to make their breakthrough in 2007, when Edmund Stoiber refused to step down as Bavarian Governor and as CSU party chair.
Fürth County Commissioner and Latex fetishist Gabriele Pauli as a consequence organized some massive grassroot support, which initially came to nothing. Only after a whole regiment of party members leaving the CSU and joining the Free Voters, which had already been an important figure on the community level, Stoiber chose to renounce a further candidacy for either office.