🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Pick Up the Phone]

Results as expected. Only interesting question is whether we get GRÜNE-FDP-SPD in BW (or once again GRÜNE-CDU).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Traffic light is almost safe in RLP, another theoretical options is SPD-Greens-FW (red-green-orange...  idk what flag that would be? Burkina Faso?).

Disaster for the CDU.

I would call that a pepper coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in BW is estimated at 62%, RP at 70%. That's less than in 2016. But would be very high by American standards.

Everything above 60% these days in such big states for a state election is solid.

[parochial boy]

Good results for FW in both states !

Pretty underwhelming for everyone else really (except for the Greens and FDP in BaWü).

lol at CDU voters wanting to protest vote and finding the most boring way possible to do it

[President Johnson]

FGW exit polls:

BW:

Greens: 31.5
CDU: 23
AfD: 12.5
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 11
Left: 3.5
FW: 3

RLP:

SPD: 33.5
CDU: 25.5
AfD: 10.5
FDP: 6.5
Greens: 9.5
Left: 3
FW: 5.5

SPD is at 12% per ARD. About the same as five years ago, but a hilariously terrible result.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371145066849447936
https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1371144736707391492

[Astatine]

So, to sum it up, it is a mixed evening for both parties:

CDU: Absolute disaster. The worst result for the party in both states, and they will remain in opposition in RLP and might be out of government in BW as well. 9 consecutive elections with big or moderate losses.

SPD: Mixed. They definitely benefitted of Dreyer's incumbency in RLP. The result in BW is pretty bad tho, and there is a real possibility of the SPD becoming the smallest party in the Landtag there.

Greens: Gains of course, but below expectations. They expected a double digit result in RLP and Kretschmann's polling numbers were a bit better. For the Greens, the RLP result isn't even a record (that was set in 2011 shortly after Fukushima with 15.2 %), it seems like that many Green leaners voted for SPD to keep Dreyer.

AfD: Relatively strong (stronger than most polls), but a bit of a setback. The times of continuous gains are officially over.

FDP: The result in BW might be the best in 50 years, so they belong on the winner side. The gains in RLP were abysmal, but considering that the top candidate was relatively unknown, the result is acceptable.

Left: At least here it's clear, they're the real losers of this evening, might even lose votes compared to the last elections there. The federal trend isn't looking great either.

FW: Probably the biggest winners, the RLP result is really good and BW is a solid performance.

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that the huge amount of postal voting weeks ago might have prevented the CDU from a bigger crash in both states ...

Many voters sent in their ballots before the CDU mask/money scandal.

[President Johnson]

Since it's pretty evident the incumbency played a massive role in both states and helped their parties to win again, Greens and SPD would be well advised to find a successor in time. Especially for Kretschmann, who at 73 probably won't run for a fourth term (Dreyer can easily run again in 2026). If I were Kretschmann, I'd resign around 2024 so that my successor can establish a reputation and run as the incumbent Minister President in the 2026 election. Personally, I'd prefer Cem Özdemir as his successor.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD: Mixed. They definitely benefitted of Dreyer's incumbency in RLP. The result in BW is pretty bad tho, and there is a real possibility of the SPD becoming the smallest party in the Landtag there.

That BW result isn't a good reflection on Eskja's character and competence.

The clear winner of this evening ought to be Markus Söder...

[Pick Up the Phone]

Winners:

Greens (best result ever in a state election (BW); stronger position than before in both coalitions). 

FDP (very good result in BW; static in RLP but will remain part of the coalition there).

SPD (Malu Dreyer saves the day; expectedly weak in BW however).

Losers:

CDU ("we would have hoped for other, we would have hoped for much different results" - Secretary-General Paul Ziemiak).

AfD (did not benefit from COVID-19/the CDU 'mask scandal'; erratic performance).

LINKE (well, at least they tried).

[Astatine]

Since it's pretty evident the incumbency played a massive role in both states and helped their parties to win again, Greens and SPD would be well advised to find a successor in time. Especially for Kretschmann, who at 73 probably won't run for a fourth term (Dreyer can easily run again in 2026). If I were Kretschmann, I'd resign around 2024 so that my successor can establish a reputation and run as the incumbent Minister President in the 2026 election. Personally, I'd prefer Cem Özdemir as his successor.

Dreyer has multiple sclerosis, so I wouldn't be so sure if she runs again in 2026.

Anyways, I find the tendency to just resign in mid of a term... questionable. Yes, Minister-Presidents are elected by the legislature, but the increasing incumbency bonus (reverse trend to the US) allows the leading government party to have a substantial advantage heading into the election. Here in Saarland, 47 % of CDU voters voted CDU in 2017 to keep AKK as Minister-President according to exit polls, but instead, after one year, they got a guy hardly anyone heard of before (...and who lost the only direct election he ran for before).

Idk what would be the alternative tho. If I remember correctly, Italian regional elections are sort of direct elections and when the incumbent resigns or dies, a snap election is called. Maybe elect the Minister-President directly and vote for the legislature simultaneously or so? Wouldn't really match with the German preference for stable governments tho.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Since it's pretty evident the incumbency played a massive role in both states and helped their parties to win again, Greens and SPD would be well advised to find a successor in time. Especially for Kretschmann, who at 73 probably won't run for a fourth term (Dreyer can easily run again in 2026). If I were Kretschmann, I'd resign around 2024 so that my successor can establish a reputation and run as the incumbent Minister President in the 2026 election. Personally, I'd prefer Cem Özdemir as his successor.

Agree. Cem Özemir and Muhterem Aras would be possible successors. However, I'm not sure how much intra-party support the former would enjoy (or if he would be considered a Berlin transplant).

[palandio]

It should be noted that the huge amount of postal voting weeks ago might have prevented the CDU from a bigger crash in both states ...

Many voters sent in their ballots before the CDU mask/money scandal.

According to infratest dimap the CDU lost ca. 2% compared to the last poll before the scandal in both Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz. This is not that much after all. And if you take into account that between one half and two thirds voted by mail, then the effect of the scandal will be ca. 1%.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Just like in Hamburg: Retirees have saved the SPD.

52% of all SPD voters voted for their party due to Governor Malu Dreyer.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Worst CDU performance in BaWu ever:

[Astatine]

Just like in Hamburg: Retirees have saved the SPD.

52% of all SPD voters voted for their party due to Governor Malu Dreyer.

For the Greens, it is a bit of a wash: In RLP, they overperformed with younger voters (18 % for <30, 5 % for >60), in BW it is the reverse (28 % for <30, 34 % for >60).

[President Johnson]

It's noteworthy that the Greens almost always underperform their polling numbers. They were expected to be in double digits in RP and BW polls saw them between 32% and 35%. Same pattern in the last few federal elections.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

AfD currently thrid-strongest party (11.8%) in BW according to the latest Hochrechnung by ARD.
SPD: 11.7%
FDP: 11.3%

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Latest Infratest Dimap numbers:

[Astatine]

RLP according to ZDF:

SPD 34.2
CDU 26.0
AfD 10.2
FDP 6.4
Greens 8.9
FW 5.5
Others 8.8

[President Johnson]

Baldauff and Eisenmann have de facto given concession speeches now, congratulating Dreyer and Kretschmann. My wife just turned to me and asked to imagine them calling the results rigged and a steal in the fashion of Donald Trump. That's so freakin' unimaginable.

[Astatine]

Baldauff and Eisenmann have de facto given concession speeches now, congratulating Dreyer and Kretschmann. My wife just turned to me and asked to imagine them calling the results rigged and a steal in the fashion of Donald Trump. That's so freakin' unimaginable.

"Des Ergebnis isch kombledda Humbug, des sinn Fäik-Zahlen vom ÖR! Ich hab' ganz sicher deutlich gewonnen und bin die nächste Minischterpräsidentin!"

Even the AfD candidate just congratulated Kretschmann.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

ARD now sees the Greens on 32% in BW. Green-Red is two seats short of a majority according to their latest estimation.

Links for updates:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/baden-wuerttemberg-alle-ergebnisse-der-landtagswahl-2021-im-ueberblick-a-181b2648-0398-46f6-a854-22115d9c396b (Baden-Württemberg)

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/rheinland-pfalz-alle-ergebnisse-der-landtagswahl-2021-im-ueberblick-a-6c819b8d-2b10-404a-99f9-1110ec3ede2e (RLP)

[mubar]

SPD's worst performance in RP also, but they still manage to hold up far better:

That's not the SPD electoral history in RLP, that's the largest party share over the years.

Back in 1950s SPD was smaller and their worst performance in RLP is just 31.7% in 1955. They're easily going to beat that this time. And in other elections between 1947-1959 they got around 34% which is about the same they are expected to get now.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

So in RLP it seems that the vote share for "Others" (without including Die Linke or FW) has more than doubled (!). Any idea who's benefiting from this?