🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Tender Branson]

Could the Free Voters enter federal politics???

No, but after a good showing in the BW & RP state elections on Sunday - they could get a respectable 2-3% in the federal election. Which would be up from 1% last time.

[Kabam]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

[Flyersfan232]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

No, they are not (at least not at the state level).* There are two Freie Wähler representatives in the European Parliament however, and several more at the local level and in various city councils.

Center to center-right I would say. Definitely more conservative than the FDP on most social matters but hardly in an ideological way. In the European Parliament, they are part of 'Renew Europe' (liberals) though. I guess 'center-right regionalism with liberal elements' is an apt description.

*There is also one single MP in Saxony-Anhalt (former independent member of the CDU parliamentary group) who switched to the Freie Wähler in 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

No, they are not (at least not at the state level).* There are two Freie Wähler representatives in the European Parliament however, and several more at the local level and in various city councils.

Center to center-right I would say. Definitely more conservative than the FDP on most social matters but hardly in an ideological way. In the European Parliament, they are part of 'Renew Europe' (liberals) though. I guess 'center-right regionalism with liberal elements' is an apt description.

*There is also one single MP in Saxony-Anhalt (former independent member of the CDU parliamentary group) who switched to the Freie Wähler in 2019.

You're forgetting Brandenburg, but there are other factors in play there such as the local party's relationship to what FW national organization exists, and the fact that they have ran prominent candidates and won direct mandates in 2014 and 2019, allowing them to 'cheat' the threshold.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).

[Astatine]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).

BVB/FW actually managed both in the last state elections: They won a district (availing them to enter Parliament via Grundmandatsklausel), but they also took the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

Btw, before it falls under the radar: Not only the state parliaments of RLP and BW are up for election tomorrow, but there are also local elections in Hesse.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

No, they are not (at least not at the state level).* There are two Freie Wähler representatives in the European Parliament however, and several more at the local level and in various city councils.

Center to center-right I would say. Definitely more conservative than the FDP on most social matters but hardly in an ideological way. In the European Parliament, they are part of 'Renew Europe' (liberals) though. I guess 'center-right regionalism with liberal elements' is an apt description.

*There is also one single MP in Saxony-Anhalt (former independent member of the CDU parliamentary group) who switched to the Freie Wähler in 2019.

You're forgetting Brandenburg, but there are other factors in play there such as the local party's relationship to what FW national organization exists, and the fact that they have ran prominent candidates and won direct mandates in 2014 and 2019, allowing them to 'cheat' the threshold.

Indeed, there is the BVB/FW in Brandenburg. My bad.

I nonetheless remain skeptical regarding their long-term chances outside of Bavaria. I also don't think that it is a priority of the federal party (which is unsurprisingly dominated by Bavarians).  

[Pick Up the Phone]

Let's have a look at the latest poll for tomorrow's state elections in BW and RLP:

Baden-Württemberg (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 23% / 24% (-4.0% / -3.0%)
SPD: 11% / 10% (-1.7% / - 2.7%)
GRÜ: 32% / 34% (+1.7% / +3.7%)
FDP: 11% / 11% (+2.7% / + 2.7%)
LIN: 04% / 03% (+1.1% / +0.1%)
AfD: 13% / 11% (-2.1% / -4.1%)

Prediction: Green triumph. Real possibility of a GRÜNE-FDP-SPD coalition (reverse traffic light). Amusingly, there is a scenario in which GRÜNE-FDP could get a majority on their own.

Rhineland-Palatinate (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 29% / 29% (-2.8% / -2.8%)
SPD: 32% / 33% (-4.2% / -3.2%)
GRÜ: 10% / 10% (+4.7% / +4.7%)
FDP: 7% / 6.5% (+0.8% / +0.3%)
LIN: 03% / 03% (+0.2% / +0.2%)
AfD: 10% / 09% (-2.6% / -3.6%)

Prediction: SPD-led coalition prevails, GRÜNE demand more power at the FDP's expense. Not much to be seen here.

[Astatine]

Let's have a look at the latest poll for tomorrow's state elections in BW and RLP:

Baden-Württemberg (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 23% / 24% (-4.0% / -3.0%)
SPD: 11% / 10% (-1.7% / - 2.7%)
GRÜ: 32% / 34% (+1.7% / +3.7%)
FDP: 11% / 11% (+2.7% / + 2.7%)
LIN: 04% / 03% (+1.1% / +0.1%)
AfD: 13% / 11% (-2.1% / -4.1%)

Prediction: Green triumph. Real possibility of a GRÜNE-FDP-SPD coalition (reverse traffic light). Amusingly, there is a scenario in which GRÜNE-FDP could get a majority on their own.

Rhineland-Palatinate (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 29% / 29% (-2.8% / -2.8%)
SPD: 32% / 33% (-4.2% / -3.2%)
GRÜ: 10% / 10% (+4.7% / +4.7%)
FDP: 7% / 6.5% (+0.8% / +0.3%)
LIN: 03% / 03% (+0.2% / +0.2%)
AfD: 10% / 09% (-2.6% / -3.6%)

Prediction: SPD-led coalition prevails, GRÜNE demand more power at the FDP's expense. Not much to be seen here.

Addition for RLP: INSA sees the Free Voters at 4 %, FGW has them at 5 %.

[Former President tack50]

Let's have a look at the latest poll for tomorrow's state elections in BW and RLP:

Baden-Württemberg (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 23% / 24% (-4.0% / -3.0%)
SPD: 11% / 10% (-1.7% / - 2.7%)
GRÜ: 32% / 34% (+1.7% / +3.7%)
FDP: 11% / 11% (+2.7% / + 2.7%)
LIN: 04% / 03% (+1.1% / +0.1%)
AfD: 13% / 11% (-2.1% / -4.1%)

Prediction: Green triumph. Real possibility of a GRÜNE-FDP-SPD coalition (reverse traffic light). Amusingly, there is a scenario in which GRÜNE-FDP could get a majority on their own.

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).
BVB/FW actually managed both in the last state elections: They won a district (availing them to enter Parliament via Grundmandatsklausel), but they also took the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

What should be noted: BVB/Freie Wähler is not part of the federal umbrella group called Bundesvereinigung Freie Wähler, which the Free Voters in Bavaria and Saxony-Anhalt belong to.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Btw, before it falls under the radar: Not only the state parliaments of RLP and BW are up for election tomorrow, but there are also local elections in Hesse.

In 2016, the SPD fell against the CDU by a mere 0.4%. I guess that was the SPD's last gasp of relief before its final falling into decline.
The AfD became the third-strongest party, narrowly beating the Greens.

[President Johnson]

I hope the CDU totally collapses, especially in BW. Dropping to the low 20s would be so hilarious in a state they governed for 58 years until 2011. However, it would weaken Armin Laschet, whose clearly preferable to Söder. But maybe a cratering CDU and the scandals change the dynamics at the federal level. Just remember that Schulzmentum in 2017 faded because the SPD blew three state elections in the months leading up to the Bundestag election.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

Technically, even when considering the pre-1952 Eastern cabinets led by SED officials (SED was the merger of SPD and KPD, plus those governments mostly included Eastern CDU members as well), the only German state governments excluding SPD and CDU/CSU were the cabinets of Johannes Hoffmann and Heinrich Welsch in Saarland 1947-1956 (Saarland was technically sort of independent but in an economic union with France, but the Governors from that time usually get included into the lists of German state governments): Hoffmann led four different governments - two CVP/SPS coalitions and two CVP cabinets.

CVP and SPS were somewhat comparable to a "Saarland equivalent" of CDU and SPD, but they were fully independent from the German parties. After Saarland reunited with Germany in 1957, CVP and CDU would merge, same with SPS and SPD.

Heinrich Welsch led an interim government for four months from 1955 until 1956 which was composed of independents only.

[Flyersfan232]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

Technically, even when considering the pre-1952 Eastern cabinets led by SED officials (SED was the merger of SPD and KPD, plus those governments mostly included Eastern CDU members as well), the only German state governments excluding SPD and CDU/CSU were the cabinets of Johannes Hoffmann and Heinrich Welsch in Saarland 1947-1956 (Saarland was technically sort of independent but in an economic union with France, but the Governors from that time usually get included into the lists of German state governments): Hoffmann led four different governments - two CVP/SPS coalitions and two CVP cabinets.

CVP and SPS were somewhat comparable to a "Saarland equivalent" of CDU and SPD, but they were fully independent from the German parties. After Saarland reunited with Germany in 1957, CVP and CDU would merge, same with SPS and SPD.

Heinrich Welsch led an interim government for four months from 1955 until 1956 which was composed of independents only.

Green might be a main party soon

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

(mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!)

Let me guess, the SPD is traditionally locally dominant?

[DL]

Why wouldn't a CDU/FDP black-yellow coalition be called "the bumblebee coalition"?

[Astatine]

(mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!)

Let me guess, the SPD is traditionally locally dominant?

Exactly, and the acid trip coalition had 17 seats to the SPD's 16.
It is one of at least two formal coalitions of CDU and Left on local level (the town is called Schiffweiler, the other one Sulzbach/Saar) and officially that's a violation of the Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss of the federal CDU.

[Kabam]

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).
BVB/FW actually managed both in the last state elections: They won a district (availing them to enter Parliament via Grundmandatsklausel), but they also took the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

What should be noted: BVB/Freie Wähler is not part of the federal umbrella group called Bundesvereinigung Freie Wähler, which the Free Voters in Bavaria and Saxony-Anhalt belong to.

This is why I didn't count them in my earlier post. I know they cooperate, but the structure still confuses me tbh.

[Astatine]

Why wouldn't a CDU/FDP black-yellow coalition be called "the bumblebee coalition"?

In German that would be "Hummelkoalition", that just sounds a bit odd. "Tiger duck" coalition is more of a sarcastic term (the tiger duck - Tigerente - is a famous book character by the German child book author Janosch), but for coalitions of two parties, country flag/food/obscure description coalition names are relatively rare (CDU/FDP could be a Baden-Württemberg coalition - which would kinda fit since BW used to be the heartland for both parties - SPD/Greens would be a Bangladesh coalition, SPD/Left/Greens a Belarus coalition - that term was used once actually in 2005 - CDU/SPD a Trinidad-Tobago coalition, SPD/FDP a Vietnam coalition), as "Schwarz-gelb" or "Rot-grün" are practical two syllable terms.

Besides "Black-yellow", a CDU/FDP coalition is sometimes referred to as "Christian-liberal coalition" (Christlich-liberale Koalition).

[Flyersfan232]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?