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GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.

I know people will call me a hack for this but I really do think Trump is being overestimated in most polling. I still think he narrowly wins in the end unfortunately, but not by as much as we're seeing now.

quote author=Chancellor Tanterterg link=topic=530268.msg9493619#msg9493619 date=1716810181 uid=1424]
If Trump is being overestimated then he’d likely lose since he’s barely up in the three rust belt states.

Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.

They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.

Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.

Luna is an atrocious candidate, on par with Boebert

Also, unlike in SC-1, Democrats actually have a seemingly somewhat stronger than expected wave insurance candidate in FL-13 (still nothing amazing, but about two rungs above the generic some dude she initially appeared to be).  Mace is a very weak incumbent who may or may not have genuine mental health issues and is at her core basically a really trashy redneck sorority airhead (which isn’t the best fit for her district), but she is now in a Republican enough district that she’s basically safe for the time being in a GE despite being (to quote South Park) something out of a stereotype coloring book.  I think she’d have lost in the old district lines to an A-list opponent, but she’s not going to draw any serious GE opposition right now. 

By contrast, Luna is so unhinged and ideologically out of sync with her district (as opposed to Mace, who is stylistically out of touch, but ideologically bipolar and strikes me as a Ron Johnson type who talks very, very, very differently to her constituents/Charleston local media than she does in Congress or in front of national media or at out-of-district events) that she [Luna] almost lost in 2022 to a pretty unheralded Democratic sacrificial lamb.  At her core, Luna is an unhinged MAGA nutjob and it really shows.  Incidentally, I’d argue that a stronger Democratic candidate almost certainly would’ve beaten her in 2022.  I think Democrats made a mistake by not rubbing anyone more serious than wave insurance here, but who knows what the internal polling showed. 
[/quote]

Mace’s district is bluer than Peltola’s and about on par with Boebert’s current seat, and only a couple points redder than her old one. It wasn’t a dramatic shoring up like Stephanie Bice or Burgess Owens got.

Andy Street won't run for Parliament:
https://twitter.com/andy4wm/status/1795160893208019344

I'd be interested in hearing an explanation as to how someone could support a fascist dictatorship and still be a good person.

Not everyone who supports Trump supports a fascist dictatorship and Trump winning wont turn us into one either.

There is no rational basis for assuming otherwise on either front.

I get that the continuity continuity SDP is basically a socially conservative with a slight left tinge larper party but what is the continuity Liberals aside from being the vehicle of a few councilors?

The SDP are for extremely online people who hold statist (but I wouldn’t really say left wing) views on the economy, so you’re basically correct. The Liberals are literally just a branding name for a few scattered council groups, there’s no real national platform or leadership.

Not a terrible outcome for Trump. The Mises lolberts now claim they want to vote for Trump as protest of Chase Oliver. Chase Oliver also is quite strongly culturally left wing in vibes as well along with calling Gaza a genocide so he could peel off some lefties.

Nationalist and social conservative economic leftism isn´t the newest thing.
The irony of it all is that MAGA's leader is Trump, a businessman whose economic stances outside of trade aren´t much different to the 2000's GOP.

It's just LaRoucheism tbh

Hinkle has connections with the Larouche movement. Remember, five years back, he was a normal Bernie Sanders supporter before pivoting to sh**tlib. Then when that plan failed he switched to becoming an apologist for Assad.  Now he wants to trick leftists into joining his fascist movement.

Hinkle is a fed.

Maybe.

Eligibility should begin at conception.

- Consistent leads or ties in the battleground states.
- Minority and youth votes returning to normal at the polls.
- Another foreign conflict arises that Biden doesn't fumble, or Russia/Ukraine takes stage again.

RFK Jr. being up there would at least add something new to the mix. I can only imagine he'll come off as completely awful, probably even worse than the other two.

Yeah, I don't think RFK's campaign team actually wants him in this debate. They want him excluded so he can complain...

Can you imagine this guy and Trump going back and forth?

Jesus he sounds terrible. This guy makes Biden sound like a master orator.

Biden used to be a master orator, but he has lost the ability to speak, unfortunately.
Or I have lost the ability to understand what he is saying.

Given that Southampton are back in the Premiership, I think that the election is now a mere afterthought for Sunak. Even more than it was before. Like most people in the UK who are heavily into football, he probably adheres to the great Bill Shankly quote. All of this makes an even more chaotic Tory campaign more likely.