Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes but the question remains - *why* do they so fervently support Russia?

Some are doubtless just paid to do so, but there must be genuine believers.

Because most of them are fascists

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/ukraine-village-mobilized-men-war/

"In This Ukrainian Village, Almost No Men Are Left"

 Few men of fighting age are left in this village in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment.
Their neighbors are already hundreds of miles east in trenches on the front lines. Some have been killed or wounded. Several are missing. Others from this rural area — about 45 miles from the borders of Romania and Moldova — have fled abroad or found ways to avoid the war, either with legitimate exemptions or by hiding.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/senior-israeli-official-us-slow-walking-aid-us-disputes/story?id=108107192

"Senior Israeli official says US slow-walking aid, which US disputes"

According to the senior Israeli official, in increasingly short supply are 155 mm artillery shells and 120 mm tank shells. The U.S. had been supplying similar munitions to Ukraine, which also reports specifically running low on 155 mm artillery shells.

Looks like the collective West needs to triage between Israle and Ukraine as far as 155 mm artillery shell shortage

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1769076957424079125

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/ukraine-village-mobilized-men-war/

"In This Ukrainian Village, Almost No Men Are Left"

Few men of fighting age are left in this village in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment.
Their neighbors are already hundreds of miles east in trenches on the front lines. Some have been killed or wounded. Several are missing. Others from this rural area — about 45 miles from the borders of Romania and Moldova — have fled abroad or found ways to avoid the war, either with legitimate exemptions or by hiding.

Grim but inevitable.

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/16/ukraine-ammunition-crisis-air-defence-missiles-russia/

"Ukraine faces ammunition crisis as air defence missiles dwindle"

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/3b32cea8-2a01-405f-8ecc-cccbc8c59a5b

"Kyiv calls on west to fund Ukraine’s domestic defence production"

The main problem with this is that this goes against the interest of the USA military-industrial complex.  Besides a good part of the Biden argument for passing the $61 billion aid to Ukraine is that most of that money will stay in the USA.  Well, that argument is weaker if there is going to be an effort to crate production capacity in Ukraine itself.

[GoTfan]

With Jaichin's spamming of any little bit of negative news about Ukraine, you'd almost think he's a Putin supporter.

[Storr]

"Every time I re-read this conversation between Walesa and Clinton, I can't help but think that Walesa had a lot of foresight."

[jaichind]

https://2009-2017.state.gov/s/d/2015/238644.htm

Blinken  in 2015

[PSOL]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/15/ukraine-village-mobilized-men-war/

"In This Ukrainian Village, Almost No Men Are Left"

 Few men of fighting age are left in this village in southwest Ukraine, and those who remain fear they will be drafted at any moment.
Their neighbors are already hundreds of miles east in trenches on the front lines. Some have been killed or wounded. Several are missing. Others from this rural area — about 45 miles from the borders of Romania and Moldova — have fled abroad or found ways to avoid the war, either with legitimate exemptions or by hiding.

Zelenskyy has the ability to rapidly shape Ukrainian society for a long war under the midst of necessity for the continuation of the Ukrainian population. I'm not advocating for nonsense said by Nazis obsessed with the fake notion of white genocide, but of the successful policies adopted by the Soviet Union which tacitly accepted adultery and empowered women with massive support and wage growth in the midst of the demographic leveling of the Cold War as is the success of Rwanda following the Genocide there. Allowing for the young and virile men remaining to engage in mass procreation, as old sperm by old men leads to health complications for the newborn just as old women often produce unhealthy offspring. Where people cannot or do not want to have sex, IVF is a possibility just as popularizing surrogate motherhood so that LGBTQ families can have the joy of raising children. It will take the whole nation to raise these children, and you cannot have prospering children without prospering adults who are single from their partners death, so accepting the fluidity of relationship structures is necessary.

These as is support for the legalization of marijuana and gay marriage is necessary but not enacted out for some inane reason or another by SN with a parliamentary majority.

[Hindsight was 2020]

With Jaichin's spamming of any little bit of negative news about Ukraine, you'd almost think he's a Putin supporter.

I have no idea why Tim defends him as some type of good source, it’s literally the exact same “Ukraine is out of ammo” Ukraine is out of manpower” spam over and over and over again for months. And for a country that apparently per all of jaichin’s months long spam is out of manpower and ammo, Ukraine has somehow found a way to keep Russia from a breakthrough after Avdiivka

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Zelenskyy has the ability to rapidly shape Ukrainian society for a long war under the midst of necessity for the continuation of the Ukrainian population. I'm not advocating for nonsense said by Nazis obsessed with the fake notion of white genocide, but of the successful policies adopted by the Soviet Union which tacitly accepted adultery and empowered women with massive support and wage growth in the midst of the demographic leveling of the Cold War as is the success of Rwanda following the Genocide there. Allowing for the young and virile men remaining to engage in mass procreation, as old sperm by old men leads to health complications for the newborn just as old women often produce unhealthy offspring. Where people cannot or do not want to have sex, IVF is a possibility just as popularizing surrogate motherhood so that LGBTQ families can have the joy of raising children. It will take the whole nation to raise these children, and you cannot have prospering children without prospering adults who are single from their partners death, so accepting the fluidity of relationship structures is necessary.

These as is support for the legalization of marijuana and gay marriage is necessary but not enacted out for some inane reason or another by SN with a parliamentary majority.

It is indeed not unrealistic for Ukraine to have to loosen up on things and take a more radical approach going forward.
If you are a country whose population has pretty much halved over 35 years, and in an urgent need for more men to hold off the enemy, you'll need to look at what you can do.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-be-asked-ceasefire-during-olympics-macron-tells-ukraine-interviewer-2024-03-16/

"Russia will be asked for ceasefire during Olympics, Macron tells Ukraine interviewer"

I fail to see why Russia will help since Russia is not even participating in the Olympics

[jaichind]

https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/la-popularite-d-attal-et-de-macron-en-baisse-d-apres-des-enquetes-20240317

"The popularity of Attal and Macron declining, according to surveys"

Macron's Ukraine position seems to be a key factor in driving down his approvals

For his part, Emmanuel Macron satisfies 28% of French people (29% in February) and dissatisfies 72% (71% in February). Note that the “very dissatisfied” increases by four points. “The very strong dissatisfaction with the president is mainly focused on Ukraine and the question of sending troops” from Western countries on the ground, Frédéric Dabi, director of Ifop, explained to AFP.

[CumbrianLefty]

With Jaichin's spamming of any little bit of negative news about Ukraine, you'd almost think he's a Putin supporter.

I have no idea why Tim defends him as some type of good source, it’s literally the exact same “Ukraine is out of ammo” Ukraine is out of manpower” spam over and over and over again for months. And for a country that apparently per all of jaichin’s months long spam is out of manpower and ammo, Ukraine has somehow found a way to keep Russia from a breakthrough after Avdiivka

Aren't deliveries now starting to pick up again as well?

[jaichind]

Ukraine has a clear and massive output gap due to the war.  But Ukraine's underperformance has been there since 2009 due to the impact of the 2008-2009 world financial crisis followed by the 2014 crisis.

What is interesting is that the war is also hitting other East European economies in terms of ability to recover from the 2020 COVID-19 crisis

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yes but the question remains - *why* do they so fervently support Russia?

Some are doubtless just paid to do so, but there must be genuine believers.

There's a couple things that lead people to support Russia, and often it's a combination of both.

A) They get their information exclusively from far-right sources that have since either unironically begun supporting Putin (because he's also right-wing) or been bribed and bought out by Russian oligarchs.  As a result, their perception of what's going on and what Putin/Russia are like is twisted by a web of lies.  Example -- Tucker Carlson's fanbase.

B) Similarly, they get their information exclusively from far-left sources that support Putin/Russia either because they hate America and the West, or because the Democrats are against Putin/Russia and they are against Democrats.  Example -- the entire payroll of the Bernie 2020 campaign.

C) They are habitual contrarians, so when they hear everyone in the news saying "Russia bad", they go, "but is Russia really that bad?" and then believe the very first thing they hear that says "actually the news is lying to you and Russia isn't really that bad."

D) Their brains are completely addled by conspiracy theories and their perception of the world is utterly divorced from reality.  Maybe they think there's no war going on at all.  Maybe they think American soldiers are actually fighting for Russia and the news is lying to us.  etc.

E) They bit hard on Russian propaganda about Ukrainians being Nazis, Ukraine not being a real country, the United States engineering a "color revolution", NATO being a "threat" to Russia, America only caring about Ukraine because of oil, or whatever.  At this point they've spent so much time and energy defending their position that it's impossible for them to switch.  It's just the classic ideological sunk cost fallacy.  Many of these are the same people who boasted in February 2022 that Russia would never invade and Biden was just lying about it.

F) They're just complete assholes and enjoy antagonizing and pissing off other people.  If all their peers supported Russia, they would support Ukraine.  There's nothing more to it than just picking an unpopular position and using it to try and get under your skin.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yes but the question remains - *why* do they so fervently support Russia?

Some are doubtless just paid to do so, but there must be genuine believers.

There's a couple things that lead people to support Russia, and often it's a combination of both.

A) They get their information exclusively from far-right sources that have since either unironically begun supporting Putin (because he's also right-wing) or been bribed and bought out by Russian oligarchs.  As a result, their perception of what's going on and what Putin/Russia are like is twisted by a web of lies.  Example -- Tucker Carlson's fanbase.

B) Similarly, they get their information exclusively from far-left sources that support Putin/Russia either because they hate America and the West, or because the Democrats are against Putin/Russia and they are against Democrats.  Example -- the entire payroll of the Bernie 2020 campaign.

C) They are habitual contrarians, so when they hear everyone in the news saying "Russia bad", they go, "but is Russia really that bad?" and then believe the very first thing they hear that says "actually the news is lying to you and Russia isn't really that bad."

D) Their brains are completely addled by conspiracy theories and their perception of the world is utterly divorced from reality.  Maybe they think there's no war going on at all.  Maybe they think American soldiers are actually fighting for Russia and the news is lying to us.  etc.

E) They bit hard on Russian propaganda about Ukrainians being Nazis, Ukraine not being a real country, the United States engineering a "color revolution", NATO being a "threat" to Russia, America only caring about Ukraine because of oil, or whatever.  At this point they've spent so much time and energy defending their position that it's impossible for them to switch.  It's just the classic ideological sunk cost fallacy.  Many of these are the same people who boasted in February 2022 that Russia would never invade and Biden was just lying about it.

F) They're just complete assholes and enjoy antagonizing and pissing off other people.  If all their peers supported Russia, they would support Ukraine.  There's nothing more to it than just picking an unpopular position and using it to try and get under your skin.

This covers most but leaving one noticeably group out:
G) They are anti-Semitic and think aid to Ukraine is some type of money laundering scam because of (((Zelensky))). See people like Elon Musk and Ben Garrison and how they talk about/depict Zelensky

[PSOL]

lmao, still hating Bernie after winning. What sore winners.

Bernie honestly would have been much better on Russia and China than Trump or Biden; unions and socialists would have promoted pro-worker policies among Chinese firms and kept rich Chinese from buying up all the property on the East Coast and, with the Iran deal in effect, Bernie could have worked something out to not make Iran so willing to back Russia over Ukraine. Heck, Bernie probably would have given bank to ensure good relations with anti-Chinese Castillo of Peru and all those anarchists and trotskyists y'all keep reposting guns to drive out the Russians

It's objectively clear that a lot of the NAFO trolls on atlas don't live in reality.

[GeneralMacArthur]

lmao, still hating Bernie after winning. What sore winners.

I challenge you to find me a single prominent online personality who supports Russia/Putin today and also supported any candidate other than Bernie Sanders or Trump's future VP Tulsi Gabbard in the 2020 primary.

[Hindsight was 2020]

lmao, still hating Bernie after winning. What sore winners.

I challenge you to find me a single prominent online personality who supports Russia/Putin today and also supported any candidate other than Bernie Sanders or Trump's future VP Tulsi Gabbard in the 2020 primary.

Bernie himself has been consistently good on this topic though

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

lmao, still hating Bernie after winning. What sore winners.

I challenge you to find me a single prominent online personality who supports Russia/Putin today and also supported any candidate other than Bernie Sanders or Trump's future VP Tulsi Gabbard in the 2020 primary.

Bernie himself has been consistently good on this topic though

Bernie's biggest problem is that he is a horrible judge of character, both in who he endorses and whose endorsements he accepts. He's surprisingly good on this issue, yes, but basically 90% of "Team Bernie" is monstrous and loud about it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

lmao, still hating Bernie after winning. What sore winners.

I challenge you to find me a single prominent online personality who supports Russia/Putin today and also supported any candidate other than Bernie Sanders or Trump's future VP Tulsi Gabbard in the 2020 primary.

Bernie himself has been consistently good on this topic though

Bernie's biggest problem is that he is a horrible judge of character, both in who he endorses and whose endorsements he accepts. He's surprisingly good on this issue, yes, but basically 90% of "Team Bernie" is monstrous and loud about it.

Unfortunately true 😕

[Virginiá]

Czechia finds another 700,000 artillery shells available, bringing the total sourced worldwide to 1.5 million. They estimate it will cost $3.3 billion to obtain them all. So assuming these deals hold up, a shell shortage in Ukraine is avoidable if the price is willing to be paid, at least for 2024.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1769483993492193542