Election models megathread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm really confused about how 538's model is working.  Siena releases 4 polls this morning showing Dems doing better than expected in every race.  Siena is an A+ rated pollster on 538, in fact the only A or A+ rater pollster polling any of these races as far as I can tell.

And these polls don't move the needle the slightest bit today any of these races.  What is 538 basing these predictions on if not these sort of polls?  (I know there's generic ballots and fundamentals and stuff, but shouldn't they be relying on this at least a little?)

[kwabbit]

I'm really confused about how 538's model is working.  Siena releases 4 polls this morning showing Dems doing better than expected in every race.  Siena is an A+ rated pollster on 538, in fact the only A or A+ rater pollster polling any of these races as far as I can tell.

And these polls don't move the needle the slightest bit today any of these races.  What is 538 basing these predictions on if not these sort of polls?  (I know there's generic ballots and fundamentals and stuff, but shouldn't they be relying on this at least a little?)

It did help the Dems, it’s just that the other polls today hurt them. The NYT polls also aren’t super fresh, they’re already a bit old. NV had no effect, the AZ poll helped Kelly but the other polls today hurt him, the PA poll helped Fetterman, and the poll helped Warnock but the AJC poll balanced it out. I think the model calculates a house effect in PA and AZ that limited the effect, but not in GA or NV where NYT polls haven’t over estimated Democrats as much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist models have finally updated, with their new probabilities at 52% D for the Senate and 74% R for the House.  G. Elliott Morris has a long technical explanation of why they paused the models on Oct. 16 and what they've done to fix them.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587176269728260096

[Alben Barkley]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

Chances were once as high as 71%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did they? It's back up to 51-49 Dems. 

[Alben Barkley]

Did they? It's back up to 51-49 Dems. 

It was 50-50 a minute ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did they? It's back up to 51-49 Dems. 

It was 50-50 a minute ago.

Minor fluctuations occur from one model run to another. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Did they? It's back up to 51-49 Dems.  

It was 50-50 a minute ago.

I truly cannot comprehend this.  Hasn’t every single Senate poll today been good for Dems? (I guess except for the high school “poll” in WI)

[2016]

The new Wall Street Journal Poll is truly eye popping. R's up two (I think that is a little bit too generous). If you look at the Shift of the Suburban Vote between August and October D's are going to face an ALAMO on Tuesday.

Let that sink in folks: In August Democrats led among Suburban White Women by 9 Points, now they favoring the Republican Party by 15 Points. This is the same Group Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin won VA with. He made a dent among those Voters who hated Trump but now came back.

[Inmate Trump]

538 was 51-49 Republican senate a minute ago but is now back to 50-50 again.

[soundchaser]

538 was 51-49 Republican senate a minute ago but is now back to 50-50 again.

We'll be doing this dance for the next couple of days, I expect. Best not to pay it too much attention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fox-news-power-rankings-republicans-125822449.html

Fox just said the H is GOP but the Senate holds sway for both parties as WI, PA, NC and OH and GA will come down to end

Ds have more pathways than Rs of course if all our Incumbents hold on it's a 51/50 S

Or if we gain PA and win GA or WI it's a 51/49 S

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

538 is at 51-49 GOP again

[Ferguson97]

There's basically no difference between 51% GOP odds and 49% GOP odds, so it's gonna be funny to see people react hysterically to this, and then again when it switches back to 52% Dem in three days, back to 51% GOP in five days, and stuck at 50% the day of the Election.

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

In NH, Biden was +10.4 in the RCP average but won by 7.3, so a 3.1% underestimation.  Same with 2016; Hillary was up 3.3 but won by like 0.3, so a 3% understimation.

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

In NH, Biden was +10.4 in the RCP average but won by 7.3, so a 3.1% underestimation.  Same with 2016; Hillary was up 3.3 but won by like 0.3, so a 3% understimation.

Thanks. That metric is  nonsensical to me (the polls will have the exact same bias as the previous election, as fixed as the speed of light), but whatever. RCP's lack of transparency as to what it is doing makes it an HP (horrible place).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

It's another way for RCP to fudge the numbers.

[Torie]

Does anyone know what "adjusted poll average" means?

It's the RCP average plus the average poll underestimation.

But why are NV and AZ projected as GOP pick-ups when Dems lead the adjusted average?

I don't understand what "average poll underestimation" means.

It's another way for RCP to fudge the numbers.

Well perhaps this guy believes them anyway.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/01/politics/democratic-seats-jeopardy-gallup-polling/index.html

[Alben Barkley]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-republican-sweep-on-election-night/

This is a completely separate article from the model, indeed he plays Devil's Advocate against his own model and talks about many other factors besides the model, so it deserves its own thread. Stupid to shove every article Silver publishes in the model thread. And didn't used to happen, so WTF mods? Are you just trying to bury this for some reason?

[Ferguson97]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-republican-sweep-on-election-night/

This is a completely separate article from the model, indeed he plays Devil's Advocate against his own model and talks about many other factors besides the model, so it deserves its own thread. Stupid to shove every article Silver publishes in the model thread. And didn't used to happen, so WTF mods? Are you just trying to bury this for some reason?

I read that without realizing he was playing devil's advocate with a fictional person, so I kept thinking "oh my god, this Redd guy is insufferable, why is Nate talking with him?" And then I read the premise description.

I look forward to his discussion with Nathaniel Bleu.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models with change from last update (Oct. 30). 


Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 56 (-7)
538 Classic 54 (-7)
DDHQ 47.6 (-0.7)
538 Deluxe 47 (-6)
JHK 46.8 (-4.4)
Economist 46 (-6)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 92.9 (+4.5)
538 Deluxe 85 (+5)
538 Classic 84 (+4)
DDHQ 80.4 (+2.9)
Economist 78 (+4)
538 Lite 77 (+6)


Democrats continue to slide as the consensus now looks like a Likely R House and Tossup Senate.