When will the 538 Odds show the GOP has a 51% chance or better of taking control of the Senate?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

The most absurd thing is the hand wringing over all of this. And obsessed with predictions, and anger with those with contrary crystal balls. Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate. Who would want to live with that toxic brew, or expose your issue (legal term for rug rats) to that?

Especially since there's no meaningful difference between 50-50 and 51-49 (either way) or really anything closer than about 55-45.  They're all toss-ups, or "dead heats" as 538 has switched to using.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

The most absurd thing is the hand wringing over all of this. And obsessed with predictions, and anger with those with contrary crystal balls. Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate. Who would want to live with that toxic brew, or expose your issue (legal term for rug rats) to that?

Especially since there's no meaningful difference between 50-50 and 51-49 (either way) or really anything closer than about 55-45.  They're all toss-ups, or "dead heats" as 538 has switched to using.

We're creatures who hate the unknown and love to see patterns where they may be none.  It's just how our brains are wired. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate.

No, that more applies to guys named "Carter" whose parents own a yacht club, yet make you pay for dinner every time you go out, don't know the meaning of "not tonight, babe", and have relatives who can't wrap their heads around the fact that you're not from the Middle East. 

Completely hypothetical, of course. 

[soundchaser]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate.

No, that more applies to guys named "Carter" whose parents own a yacht club, yet make you pay for dinner every time you go out, don't know the meaning of "not tonight, babe", and have relatives who can't wrap their heads around the fact that you're not from the Middle East. 

Completely hypothetical, of course. 

I’m surprised Rosalyn still lets him date.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ayy back up to 51-49 Dems.  Fivey Fox probably chewed on the wiring, that little sh**t. 

Don't hook up with a guy who is too political, my dear, that is my best advice. They have long since lost the ability to see the grays in life, and more importantly, potentially lost the  ability to laugh at one's self, and self deprecate.

No, that more applies to guys named "Carter" whose parents own a yacht club, yet make you pay for dinner every time you go out, don't know the meaning of "not tonight, babe", and have relatives who can't wrap their heads around the fact that you're not from the Middle East. 

Completely hypothetical, of course. 

I’m surprised Rosalyn still lets him date.

Huh.  He *did* say he had a "government job" and that he once got attacked by a rabbit. 

[2016]

Never thought this would happen but 538 switched it to 51-49 GOP!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Never thought this would happen but 538 switched it to 51-49 GOP!

(Torie, in Maxwell Smart voice): Missed it by that much!

[Ferguson97]

There's basically no difference between 51% GOP odds and 49% GOP odds, so it's gonna be funny to see people react hysterically to this, and then again when it switches back to 52% Dem in three days, back to 51% GOP in five days, and stuck at 50% the day of the Election.

[South Dakota Democrat]

There's basically no difference between 51% GOP odds and 49% GOP odds, so it's gonna be funny to see people react hysterically to this, and then again when it switches back to 52% Dem in three days, back to 51% GOP in five days, and stuck at 50% the day of the Election.

This.  People assume a level of precision where none exist, it seems.  The same thing happens, relatedly, with polling averages.  When a candidate is up by 1-2% (polling biases of late notwithstanding), people assume that candidate is going to win and it would be a major upset if they lost, when in reality being up 1-2%, even in the aggregate, means nothing and is essentially the same as the race being tied.

[Torie]

Never thought this would happen but 538 switched it to 51-49 GOP!

(Torie, in Maxwell Smart voice): Missed it by that much!

Yeah, but close only counts in horse shoes.


I am closing the poll.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time

[Associate Justice PiT]

Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time

     538 tweaking their model might be a factor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time

     538 tweaking their model might be a factor.

As I recall from an explanation one of the 538 folks gave last cycle: what happens is that each model run does 40,000 simulations.  What it displays is a representative 100 of the 40,000 outcomes -- but not necessarily the same set of 100 each time.  So if the current probabilities are (for example) 50.6 R, 49.4 D, then sometimes it will show 50/50 and other times 51/49.  This is why you can see those minor fluctuations even between runs of the model.

[Senator Incitatus]

Anyone else find it nuts the forecast is seemingly changing every few hours? Like what is possibly changing in such little time

     538 tweaking their model might be a factor.

As I recall from an explanation one of the 538 folks gave last cycle: what happens is that each model run does 40,000 simulations.  What it displays is a representative 100 of the 40,000 outcomes -- but not necessarily the same set of 100 each time.  So if the current probabilities are (for example) 50.6 R, 49.4 D, then sometimes it will show 50/50 and other times 51/49.  This is why you can see those minor fluctuations even between runs of the model.

Smart if their goal is to boost clicks.

[Snellen]

It's up to 54% now, it could reach 60% by next Tuesday.
55% now, the swing over the last couple weeks towards Republicans has been steady.
Hard to believe it was 67% for Democrats just a short while ago.