Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Yup, I don't even understand how that makes the current situation less bad? EU isn't a defense alliance and already sending aid to Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Yup, I don't even understand how that makes the current situation less bad? EU isn't a defense alliance and already sending aid to Ukraine.

The EU isn’t explicitly a defence alliance, but it does have a defence treaty similar to Article 5 and French nuclear capabilities to trigger MAD.

Ukraine will fail to meet the criteria until it has all its territory, unless they are somehow (unrealistically) waived.

[T'Chenka]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

They need to weigh the risk of NYC, LA or Washington DC being nuked and millions of Americans dying. No, it is not likely to happen. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that it COULD happen. These things need to be taken into strong consideration.

[pppolitics]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Ukraine has become a symbol of democracy and of the people who are willing to die defending what they believe in.

Yes, the nation is poor and has corruption, but what the EU is looking for here is the symbolism.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It looks like the EU, although perhaps not individual member states,  is going to avoid explicitly coordinating the procurement of more expensive pieces of kit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/suzannelynch1/status/1498313893038284802
My guess is that this means EU-funded SAMs (besides MANPADS) are also off the table, unless and until a larger military aid package is announced. However, a few countries have been throwing comparable sums’ worth of kit at Ukraine without EU compensation - see Lithuania delivering €350k’s worth of MANPADS in January. If the countries with MiG- and Su- planes in active service can’t get guarantees of Western replacements, they might be unwilling to part with many of their Ukranian-compatible jets.

I’m so old I remember when ‘no wars in Europe’ was the primary selling point and raison d’etre of the EU. It’s gotten better than pre-invasion, but if they are back peddling when there is an actual invasion of a European state, what the hell is the EU even doing anymore?

[BlueSwan]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Ukraine has become a symbol of democracy and of the people who are willing to die defending what they believe in.

Yes, the nation is poor and has corruption, but what the EU is looking for here is the symbolism.

Nah, I'm telling you it is not going to happen.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Less gooooo

https://mobile.twitter.com/UA_Emb_FI/status/1498332538972033031

He's overplaying his hand here. Obviously the EU cannot admit a member that is in the middle of a war. Also, even if there was no contested territories within Ukraine and no war, Ukraine still needs to solve a bunch of problems, such as massive corruption, before it could even be debated whether it should be a part of the EU. Finally, the EU has all but regretted admitting member states like Hungary and Poland - there isn't much appetite for admitting yet another country that really isn't a fully functioning democracy.

Ukraine has become a symbol of democracy and of the people who are willing to die defending what they believe in.

Yes, the nation is poor and has corruption, but what the EU is looking for here is the symbolism.

Nah, I'm telling you it is not going to happen.

My guess is the thinking isn’t Ukraine joins the EU, it’s that once there is peace treaty/Russian withdrawal they join so they get whatever EU for Article 5 protection is to prevent Russia from going back in.

[Helsinkian]

Let's remember that Cyprus was admitted to the EU even though it was and still is in the middle of a major territorial dispute.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Let's remember that Cyprus was admitted to the EU even though it was and still is in the middle of a major territorial dispute.

An important exception to the rule, but Cyprus’ dispute was a frozen conflict.

[It’s so Joever]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

They need to weigh the risk of NYC, LA or Washington DC being nuked and millions of Americans dying. No, it is not likely to happen. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that it COULD happen. These things need to be taken into strong consideration.

I understand, but given the extremely low risk, it is worth it IMO.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

We’ve just rearmed Europe, we’re shipping Ukrainians arms and giving them up to minute surveillance, and we’ve effectively shut down the Russian central bank.

Short of actually declaring war on Russia, I’m terribly sure what you want the US to do.

[Person Man]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

They need to weigh the risk of NYC, LA or Washington DC being nuked and millions of Americans dying. No, it is not likely to happen. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that it COULD happen. These things need to be taken into strong consideration.

I understand, but given the extremely low risk, it is worth it IMO.

At this point, the risks of pretending they are always one second away from blowing us up is riskier than calling it.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

They need to weigh the risk of NYC, LA or Washington DC being nuked and millions of Americans dying. No, it is not likely to happen. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that it COULD happen. These things need to be taken into strong consideration.

I understand, but given the extremely low risk, it is worth it IMO.

At this point, the risks of pretending they are always one second away from blowing us up is riskier than calling it.

There is a reason we fight proxy wars and not formal wars.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Yet again the farmers are being absolute chads

https://mobile.twitter.com/W_W_3_2022/status/1498336157037314048

[Storr]

Jesus Christ....
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498273606266195972?s=20&t=iWlXsKz...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498285547097407497?s=20&t=iWlXsKz...

[It’s so Joever]

Jesus Christ....
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498273606266195972?s=20&t=iWlXsKz...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498285547097407497?s=20&t=iWlXsKz...

Remember, this is what Russia is being told is okay.

[jaichind]

Russia says Ukraine agreed to another round of talks. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Putin thought that things were going to be sweet. He f**ked around and found out that wasn't the case!

[Person Man]

Putin thought that things were going to be sweet. He f**ked around and found out that wasn't the case!

You probably saw what I said about that in the other thread.

[Storr]

Based.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1498132689391689730?s=20&t=G3qKOjGklcj0...

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1498342341521854476?s=20&t=hs36TmWKbC4aA8...

[Logical]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM

PRISTINA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Hungary will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory in order to keep the country safe, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday during a visit to Kosovo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/

First crack in the European coalition. Ukraine and Putin will now be an important issue in the upcoming elections in Hungary.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biggest update on the jets yet (thread): https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1498336344673853447
Bulgaria and Poland are the only countries Ukraine has asked so far, and both have said no - Bulgaria’s justification is that they have too few and too few spare parts to service their own fleet.

Ukraine could ask Slovakia for MiG-29s or request different kinds of jet - around Europe, there are still Su-25s (Bulgaria) in service, as well as really old Su-22s (Poland) and MiG-21s (Croatia, Romania) in service.

If desperate, they could ask for L-39 and Yak-52 trainers which have limited offensive capabilities, or they could ask for the various MiG- and Su- planes in other European countries that are currently out-of-service (although I don’t expect many, if any, of these will be airworthy).

IMO this is where EU coordination and US support is/was needed. Countries that no longer use their Soviet planes could offer them as spare parts for the likes of Bulgaria and countries with Western jets could backfill the Bulgarian, Polish and Slovakian airforces in exchange for them giving their active jets to Ukraine. Similar logic applies to countries parting with their Soviet SAMs, which otherwise seems unlikely right now.

[Storr]

Also based:

https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1498332884121399307?s=20&t=G3qKOjGkl...

[It’s so Joever]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM

PRISTINA, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Hungary will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory in order to keep the country safe, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday during a visit to Kosovo.

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-will-not-allow-lethal-weapons-ukraine-transit-its-territory-fm-2022-02-28/

First crack in the European coalition. Ukraine and Putin will now be an important issue in the upcoming elections in Hungary.

F**K HUNGARY!