Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes that's what I meant. Ta'al only had 1 MK? but now they have large chunk of the old Joint List vote. It's a bit surprising.

Ah, but why should we assume that widespread discontent with politics as usual be only restricted to the majority ethnicity?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, there's definitely an argument that the only parties with any strong purpose ('elect X as PM or Minister for Y' not counting) are the testimonial ones, and that that's why the electorate is so ridiculously volatile.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funniest thing about this election is that Gantz's list looks more like Labor as it used to be than Gabbay-led Labor does. Ehud Barak II: Electric Boogaloo.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt anyone who votes for Shas cares about corruption

No, no, they care deeply about it. They just want their cut. Like the people who vote for all the weird ex-DC/ex-PSI outfits in southern Italy. Or everyone in Northern Ireland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be appreciated if this thread does not head off in a certain direction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The issue is more that voting habits - 'party preference' would imply a relatively rigid party system, which Israel has not had for a while - are dominated by ethnic and confessional factors. These, in turn, correlate pretty strongly with income, occupation, education levels etc. There is a classic French explanation for the peculiarities of British history that runs as follows: 'Gentleman, England is an island; now you know as much about it as I do.' Something similar applies to Israeli politics: there is a common tendency to forget the obvious, that it is a country in the Middle East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

Yes, but then this always happens. It's an entirely absurd cabaret, one that everyone involved is quite knowing about. Had it not happened this time then that list would almost certainly have dropped below the threshold; as it is, it still has a chance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They always make that claim on polling day. Of course they're small enough that it's never entirely unrealistic, particularly with the higher threshold. This time it may even be true, who knows?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of these has a tied block. Either way, it looks like my earlier hypothesis was right that there would be a centralization of votes unseen in israeli politics in a  long time.

Peak Israeli politics would be that they form a coalition and both get beaten badly next time round.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For posters familiar with Isreali political geography, what can we infer from the areas that have already reported? What do the swings from 2016 look like?

It's clear that Labour is getting destroyed in its rural base by BW. Gilad went from 68% Labour in 2015 to 19% now.

Makes sense, given that they look more 'Labor' than Labor did this time. Ahem.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A first-past-the-post system would give Bibi a supermajority.

No, it's fairly clear that the electorate is extremely polarised around the man. It would probably make remarkably little difference... at least so long as elections are about him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Intend to make some maps. If anyone has data at a higher level than municipality (sub-district maybe?) that would be useful, but if not then it'll be straight away into groups of municipalities and results within certain large ones, most probably starting with the Tel Aviv metropolitan region.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Truly this is the Age of Banter.