Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DavidB.]

The government parties couldn't agree on the proposed draft bill for the Haredim, so an early election will take place in April 2019 - probably April 9th.

Will write a longer OP when I feel like it (but the Israelis, who know more about this than I do, should feel free to do it too).

Threads like these always have a high risk of becoming "opinion of Netanyahu?" threads; please have the analysis here and the opinions here, in the Individual Politics thread that I just opened.

[jaichind]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

[Mike88]

It will be interesting to see how Benny Gantz will position himself in these elections: Will he run? Run in his own party? or join Yesh Atid, for example?

The latest poll, the Midgam one, shows Gantz with growing support and the main challenger of Netanyahu:

28 Likud
16 Gantz Party
13 Yesh Atid
12 The Joint (Arab) List
10 Zionist Union
  9 Bayit Yehudi
  7 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
  6 Yisrael Beitenu
  5 Kulanu
  5 Shas
  5 Orly Levy
  4 Meretz

60 Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

[Hnv1]

And we're off.

Prediction: Likud landslide, ZU and Meretz shattered.

[DavidB.]

I believe the Gantz thing when I see it. Some well-known person ""possibly"" running and winning a lot of seats is something that happens every 6 months in Israel. The main electoral shift is Zionist Union -> Yesh Atid, otherwise it's pretty stable.

Loss from "right-religious coalition" to "center-left opposition" are former Kulanu voters moving to YA + the Orly Levy wildcard thing (which probably won't happen). But these "blocs" don't really mean anything (I used to say Israel isn't Sweden, but the importance of the blocs in Sweden isn't what it used to be either...), since Yesh Atid isn't going to form a coalition that depends on the Joint List either from the inside or from the outside. So 90% sure there will be another Netanyahu government even in the event the right-religious parties don't win a majority.

[DavidB.]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

[jaichind]

I thought Gantz  going to join with Yesh Atid ?

[Hnv1]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority. 

[Hnv1]

It will be interesting to see how Benny Gantz will position himself in these elections: Will he run? Run in his own party? or join Yesh Atid, for example?

The latest poll, the Midgam one, shows Gantz with growing support and the main challenger of Netanyahu:

28 Likud
16 Gantz Party
13 Yesh Atid
12 The Joint (Arab) List
10 Zionist Union
  9 Bayit Yehudi
  7 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
  6 Yisrael Beitenu
  5 Kulanu
  5 Shas
  5 Orly Levy
  4 Meretz

60 Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

I'll wait with predictions. I also think the joint list will split into two different lists by then.

I'd also wait with the Ganz party, and wouldn't put out of question a surprising Kulano-Likud union.

[Oryxslayer]

As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

[Hnv1]

As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

The insurgent demographic votes for Bibi. what ever you think about western electoral systems does not apply in Israel. end off.

[Oryxslayer]

As a reform Jew in the States, I of course would love to see Bibi go down. But, I accept that he is Israels unofficial "Lord of National security" and that Israeli society is more right-leaning then even the US. The one thing that I see though is that Israel right now seems ripe with the eventual Bibi scandals for a 'insurgent' style party or campaign that Weds traditional issues to a distaste of Jerusalem or parties in the Knesset, a style of campaign that seems so common these days. Stuff like Beto and Texas, Jacinda and NZ, Pakatan Harapan and Malaysia, Leave and the UK, Lega in Italy, CAQ in Quebec, AMLO in Mexico, and of course Trump in the US. The only question is from where will this insurgency come from on the spectrum, maybe it's Gantz but I dunno. I will be following this election from afar.

Also how ironic is it that the government collapses on Christmas?

The insurgent demographic votes for Bibi. what ever you think about western electoral systems does not apply in Israel. end off.

It isn't just a western phenomenon, but democracies outside west are statistically on average weaker, so Authoritarianism is often also part of package. This makes cases harder, but it doesn't dispute things the Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and failed insurgencies in Japan and apparently Indonesia.

This of course doesn't ruin your original point that Bibi will likely win if things remain as they are, which I agree with 100%.

[Umengus]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

Quite logical. Israel is a country in war so lots of people prefer a strong "corrupt" leader to a weak honest leader.

But 2 things: First, I don't think taht bibi has been condemned yet (correct if I'm wrong) and second, Bibi is not a strong leader, especially with hamas.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

Quite logical. Israel is a country in war so lots of people prefer a strong "corrupt" leader to a weak honest leader.

But 2 things: First, I don't think taht bibi has been condemned yet (correct if I'm wrong) and second, Bibi is not a strong leader, especially with hamas.

Well, that's what his opponents on the right try to claim, but he's just less unhinged then them. I think the majority of the population still sees him as strong since "strength" is not just in policy, but mostly in perception. Israeli Russians, for example, treat him like Russian Russians treat Putin, and that's just one demographic.

[Hnv1]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

How can he be barred? That's a shame too, he was a unique prespective.
And that's quite sad considering they were polling at 5-6 thanks to the Labour turmoil.

[Hnv1]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

How can he be barred? That's a shame too, he was a unique prespective.
And that's quite sad considering they were polling at 5-6 thanks to the Labour turmoil.

Some bureaucratic nonsense because he was the party general secretary

[Comrade Funk]

Not expecting a miracle. Gonna take push back from the United States for Israel to get in line. Labor ed up and needs a better leader.

[Oryxslayer]

Not expecting a miracle. Gonna take push back from the United States for Israel to get in line. Labor ed up and needs a better leader.

Maybe I'm wrong, but hasn't Labor been in slow decline since Rabin? If so, then the blame is better directed towards the inability of a new left party to rise from it's ashes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Not expecting a miracle. Gonna take push back from the United States for Israel to get in line. Labor ed up and needs a better leader.

Maybe I'm wrong, but hasn't Labor been in slow decline since Rabin? If so, then the blame is better directed towards the inability of a new left party to rise from it's ashes.

It wasn't a slow decline, it was a fast decline due to the failure of Ehud Barak to get the Intifada under control. Labor lost the public's trust on security issues and never got it back.

[Velasco]

I would say with hindsight that the killing of Yitzhak Rabin marks the demise of progressive zionism, as well as the early  end of the hopes raised by the Oslo agreements. In my opinion resurrection is impossible. I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

[Hnv1]

I would say with hindsight that the killing of Yitzhak Rabin marks the demise of progressive zionism, as well as the early  end of the hopes raised by the Oslo agreements. In my opinion resurrection is impossible. I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

Rabin, progressives zionism, lol. The way historic narratives develop are hilarious

[Beet]

I would say with hindsight that the killing of Yitzhak Rabin marks the demise of progressive zionism, as well as the early  end of the hopes raised by the Oslo agreements. In my opinion resurrection is impossible. I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

Indeed. There was a last moment of hope in 2001 with the Taba summit, but it was like the Battle of Gettysburg, the gasp of a dying process started back in 1977 when Anwar Sadat visited Israel, or even earlier when Soviet advisers were kicked out of Egypt in 1972 at the behest of Henry Kissinger.