Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Thatkat04]

I recommend Anshel Pfeffer with Haaretz on twitter. They are doing a good job commenting on the areas that have been counted. He seems to think the majority of the areas counted have been from religious, right wing areas for what its worth.

https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer

[Oryxslayer]

Based on what is reporting, is it still 50/50 or is Gantz/Netanyahu in trouble?

At the moment, looks better for Netanyahu, Meretz nor the Arab parties are above threshold atm

Its still pretty early though. Since I'm about as clueless about Israeli political geography as everybody else is, I couldn't tell you what the results mean with whats still out.

Yeah, this is what I am trying to figure out. Its fairly clear from the way the parties are stacked that the vote is biased to the right haradi areas ...but whats reporting and whats out? The map posted doesn;t really help because it doesn't say whether the lowest level locality is done reporting and the displayed votes are final or if the lower locality still has more votes to count.

[jaichind]

Have enough votes come to in to say, once again, that Likud have outperformed exit polls ?

[urutzizu]

Meretz surged in Beit Hanina, 2% in 2015 to 23% in 2019, Arabs fell from 57% to 47%

Seems like Zionist Parties, especially Meretz and BW are doing surprisingly well among arabs in mixed jewish-arab areas like Haifa, Nazareth Illit etc. but not very well in 99%+ arab areas like Umm al fahm

[Umengus]

Amended Channel 13 poll has Likud ahead by one seat

Channel 13 has adjusted its exit poll as real-time official results emerge. The amended poll gives Netanyahu’s Likud a one-seat edge over Gantz’s Blue and White at 35-34.

The network had previously predicted that the two front-running parties would be tied at 36. Both Netanyahu and Gantz have crowned themselves the winners of the election.

[Thatkat04]

Have enough votes come to in to say, once again, that Likud have outperformed exit polls ?

No...

[Oryxslayer]

I think the most interesting thing right now is that if the vote is biased towards the Haradi areas, which it likely is since the next three parties below the big two are all hard right religious, the turnout in said areas is only at 60.56%. That was the under nationwide turnout at 8pm. so there must be other areas where turnout is higher.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Yeah it seems there's a counting bias towards the Haredi areas first

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm not going to read all the analysis, nor am I going to share all I went through today, but suffice to say that this day broke me (and not because of the results).

I'll also say that while it's a sad day for the Israeli left, we're not dead. We were energized, and once the dream of Gantz will fade, many people who believe in our values will come back home. Netanyahu is going to be PM again, in all likelihood, and I fully expect Likud to get ~40 seats tomorrow- but who knows. We'll see.

Good night.

[Thatkat04]

I'm not going to read all the analysis, nor am I going to share all I went through today, but suffice to say that this day broke me (and not because of the results).

I'll also say that while it's a sad day for the Israeli left, we're not dead. We were energized, and once the dream of Gantz will fade, many people who believe in our values will come back home. Netanyahu is going to be PM again, in all likelihood, and I fully expect Likud to get ~40 seats tomorrow- but who knows. We'll see.

Good night.

Sorry, I didnt mean anything by it. My knowledge of Israel politics is pretty thin so I just parrot what others have told me.

[urutzizu]

Even if the Haredi Areas came in first, i dont see how that would benefit Likud to a significant degree.
Likud and B&W barely get any votes there anyway.
Yea it explains why Shas and UTJ are doing so good and the Arabs so bad right now, but it doesnt explain that 4-point gap between Likud and B&W.

It seems that Netanyahu is simply, again, shattering conventional wisdom and the exit poll projections.

[jaichind]

Why are the vote updates only after every 40+ minutes ... this is pretty annoying ...

[Thatkat04]

Even if the Haredi Areas came in first, i dont see how that would benefit Likud to a significant degree.
Likud and B&W barely get any votes there anyway.
Yea it explains why Shas and UTJ are doing so good and the Arabs so bad right now, but it doesnt explain that 4-point gap between Likud and B&W.

It seems that Netanyahu is simply, again, shattering conventional wisdom and the exit poll projections.

Haredi Jews make up over 10% of the population of Israel. If the areas coming in are heavily Haredi, it would sway the current results somewhat.

[Matty]

Even if the Haredi Areas came in first, i dont see how that would benefit Likud to a significant degree.
Likud and B&W barely get any votes there anyway.
Yea it explains why Shas and UTJ are doing so good and the Arabs so bad right now, but it doesnt explain that 4-point gap between Likud and B&W.

It seems that Netanyahu is simply, again, shattering conventional wisdom and the exit poll projections.

Left wing atlas users, you know how Florida frustrates you because republicans win every race by like 1 point no matter what?

Imagine that on a national scale....that is what Israeli left deals with

[danny]

Haredi aren't that over represented, under the current results they would get 8 and 7 seats, which is pretty reasonable. They might lose a seat or two from this, but that should be it.

[Umengus]

Updated exit polls indicate Netanyahu headed for victory

Channel 12 and Channel 13 update their exit polls as the official ballots are counted.

Both networks’ revised samples indicate Netanyahu’s Likud will win 35 seats, compared to Blue and White’s 34.

The Channel 12 survey previously predicted 37 seats for Blue and White and 33 for Likud; Channel 13 had the two parties tied at 36.

Both exit polls now indicate that Shas would be the third-largest party with eight seats, followed by United Torah Judaism with 7. According to the TV stations, the New Right, Zehut and Gesher will fall under the electoral threshold.

In its breakdown of the political blocs, Channel 12 gives 63 of the 120 Knesset seats to the right, compared to 57 for the center-left, giving Netanyahu a clear path to forming a government. According to Channel 13, the right-wing bloc would receive 65 seats, compared to 55 for the center-left.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Likud 44
Blue and White 37
Shas 9
UTJ 7
YB 7
Labor 6
Kulanu 5
URP 5
Coalition: 77-43 in favor of the right

with 828k votes in

[urutzizu]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

I believe an FPTP system could take him down, as its much easier in FPTP system for the party out of power to win elections.

[Thatkat04]

I guess Israeli's dont feel the need to count their votes quickly, since its already past 2am there and most people have probably gone to sleep.

[ON Progressive]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

I believe an FPTP system could take him down, as its much easier in FPTP system for the party out of power to win elections.

A first-past-the-post system would give Bibi a supermajority.

[urutzizu]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

I believe an FPTP system could take him down, as its much easier in FPTP system for the party out of power to win elections.

They almost introduced it in the 80s, but the Haredim stopped it.
I am not sure if it would work well for Israels very diverse society, especially representing certain small groups like Druze or Arab Christians could be difficult.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

I believe an FPTP system could take him down, as its much easier in FPTP system for the party out of power to win elections.

They almost introduced it in the 80s, but the Haredim stopped it.
I am not sure if it would work well for Israels very diverse society, especially representing certain small groups like Druze or Arab Christians could be difficult.

It works very well in India which is also a very diverse society as well. I believe that FPTP has helped India a lot

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A first-past-the-post system would give Bibi a supermajority.

No, it's fairly clear that the electorate is extremely polarised around the man. It would probably make remarkably little difference... at least so long as elections are about him.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

As I predicted Channel 12 was a massive outlier.
Love Bibi or hate him, the only thing that can bring this man down is a criminal conviction.

Also concerning Bennett, Feiglin etc:
They might indeed fall under the Threshold on election day, but Soldiers votes (counted at a later stage) could well bring them over the top.

I believe an FPTP system could take him down, as its much easier in FPTP system for the party out of power to win elections.

They almost introduced it in the 80s, but the Haredim stopped it.
I am not sure if it would work well for Israels very diverse society, especially representing certain small groups like Druze or Arab Christians could be difficult.

I will always be an advocate for Single Transferable Vote.