Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Hnv1]

Turnout 24.8% at 12.

I suspect a slight increase with Jewish voters and a large decrease with Arabs. It was packed here

[parochial boy]

Usually the precise opposite of what-Atlas-thinks-is-happening-based-on-turnout-reports ends up actually being the case.

On that basis, Hadash-Ta'al win 50 seats and Likud drop below the threshold

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout 24.8% at 12.

I suspect a slight increase with Jewish voters and a large decrease with Arabs. It was packed here

I don't think your polling site is necessarily the most scientifically irrefutable statistical sample. Turnout is likely to end up finishing at about 67-68 percent. A modest Arab decline with a smaller Jewish decline would be plausible. What you are suggesting is not.

Unless the Arab sector is voting at an final rate of like 40 percent, which is not plausible, any Jewish increase in turnout would cause an overall turnout bump given that they are a much larger segment of eligible voters. If turnout is dropping, and it is, then it's dropping among Jewish voters, too

[America Needs R'hllor]

Usually the precise opposite of what-Atlas-thinks-is-happening-based-on-turnout-reports ends up actually being the case.

On that basis, Hadash-Ta'al win 50 seats and Likud drop below the threshold

My friend and I were just talking about how nice it is that we'll get to enjoy our nice election work salary because Hadssh won't win and redistribute the means of production

[DavidB.]

I don't think we can already assume a turnout drop in any case. In 2015 turnout was behind 2013 at 12:00, 14:00, 16:00 and 18:00, yet ended up significantly higher. Perhaps Netanyahu should make another desperate statement.

[America Needs R'hllor]

People working in the exit poll say they got some people who shouted at them for being part of the "leftist media" (murder the envoy much?) and refuse to participate. Does this mean the exit polls are slightly left leaning? Idk.

[DavidB.]

Should just be counted as an additional Likud vote.

The Election Commission has ordered URWP to stop misleadingly spreading an old video in which Naftali Bennett calls on people to vote "tet bet", which used to be the abbreviation for the Jewish Home slate and is now URWP's abbreviation - not Bennett's party anymore.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1115625717910339584

[Walmart_shopper]

A lot has happened between the start of technical difficulties and now. Apparently every single party is below the threshold and only Zehut is winning, with all 120 mandates. Commencement of World War III will be tomorrow at 9:00 am, after (King?) Feiglin breaks ground on the largest hemp farm in the world near Haifa with some rabbis and a guy in dreadlocks tied into a magen david.

[DavidB.]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 120 seats all along.

Turnout was 42.8% at 4, 2.6% lower than in 2015.

[Oryxslayer]

A lot has happened between the start of technical difficulties and now. Apparently every single party is below the threshold and only Zehut is winning, with all 120 mandates. Commencement of World War III will be tomorrow at 9:00 am, after (King?) Feiglin breaks ground on the largest hemp farm in the world near Haifa with some rabbis and a guy in dreadlocks tied into a magen david.

Yeah, the amount of Gevelt coming from everyone is crazy. I'll have a full report in a moment, but the only confirmed rumor is that Arab turnout is low in the towns that the joint list won >80% last time.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Arab turnout indeed appears to be low. I'm now predicting RaamBalad won't pass the threshold. Mikki Zohar claiming that right wing turnout is low too, but I'll believe it's not a scare strategy when I see it. So far, everyone (Likud, Labour, URWP, New Right) is making sounds of panic.

Some fun anecdotes:
In my polling place, 100% of Levis voted and 77% of Cohens voted

[Walmart_shopper]

Arab turnout indeed appears to be low. I'm now predicting RaamBalad won't pass the threshold. Mikki Zohar claiming that right wing turnout is low too, but I'll believe it's not a scare strategy when I see it. So far, everyone (Likud, Labour, URWP, New Right) is making sounds of panic.

Some fun anecdotes:
In my polling place, 100% of Levis voted and 77% of Cohens voted

Feiglin is keenly aware of the Levis and the Cohens. Trust me.

[Oryxslayer]

What a nice time to shut down the forum…

Confirmed things: Turnout is down by about three points on 2015. Confirmed reports of low turnout in Arab majority villages that gave more then 80% the vote to joint list last time around – likely hurts Balad-Ra’am unless the pollsters were anticipating low turnout among Arabs. Hadaash-Taal probably has enough banked votes in other areas to survive. No knowledge of Tel Aviv/Jerusalem turnout differential.

Unconfirmed: Likud, B&W, UTJ, Shaas, Meretz, URWP, and the Arabs have all expressed disappointment in turnout results and urged people to show up.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 1800 is at 52 percent, a drop of a little less than 3 percent from 2015. It's purely anecdotal, of course, but as parrotguy noted, turnout seems to be down among both Arabs and right wing voters. Both groups, though, are known for showing up at the last minute, so who knows.

I would guess that turnout will wind up at about 66 percent overall, which is pretty average for the last several elections (though lower than 2015). Arab turnout will indeed probably wind up at or just below 50 percent.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AnshelPfeffer/status/1115649874010214403?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Edit: Lets throw labor in that Gevelt camp

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1115652337845133312

[Donerail]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

[Oryxslayer]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

Throw it in the unconfirmed Gevelt camp. But if they are seeing low numbers... Meretz -> B&W voters?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They always make that claim on polling day. Of course they're small enough that it's never entirely unrealistic, particularly with the higher threshold. This time it may even be true, who knows?

[Oryxslayer]

Bennett is making a similar 'beg' of gevelt. He states that Likud has already won, but New Right is dying because of a URWP-Likud squeeze, and needs votes to pass the threshold.

[urutzizu]

The only Party that has not claimed it is in the process of collapsing or retweeting completely fictitious figures about the other sides turnout is Zehut. Maybe we get k̶i̶n̶g̶  Prime Minister Feiglin and legalisation of weed, guns and ethnic cleansing after all?

[jaichind]

Any link to live results?  Any links to live stream of media coverage?

[Walmart_shopper]

The Arab turnout is unofficially estimated at about 30 percent, although a lot of voters in that sector vote late. So 50 percent seems pretty reasonable, but it could be a bit lower than that, too.

It's a pity because both Arab party slates are uniquely talented and hopeful this year.

[Hnv1]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

Former chair.

Anyway I saw an internal poll. Meretz below the threshold, Labour at 6, Gantz leading by 5

[RedPrometheus]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

Former chair.

Anyway I saw an internal poll. Meretz below the threshold, Labour at 6, Gantz leading by 5

I met him a few years ago even though I'm not really a fan of Meretz this is quite sad.