Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

The attorney general announced that Netanyahu should be indicted in all three cases for which he was being investigated: breach of trust in two and bribery in the third. He also announced that he would be indicted on fraud in all three cases, which I don't think was actually expected and so that's a little bombshell on top of the giant indictment bombshell.

Gantz is expected to announce today that he will not join a government led by Bibi.

I think he's toast. What a day.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, the Kahanists want everyone to know of that they still plan to support Bibi for PM after elections. Glad we got that cleared up.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also, the Kahanists want everyone to know of that they still plan to support Bibi for PM after elections. Glad we got that cleared up.

So does Shas, lead by felon Aryeh Deri who the police recommend to be indicted for corruption again and who said he's closer to murder supporting Ben Gvir than to mainstream Zionist Lapid. Sure a great defense team!

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, the Kahanists want everyone to know of that they still plan to support Bibi for PM after elections. Glad we got that cleared up.

So does Shas, lead by felon Aryeh Deri who the police recommend to be indicted for corruption again and who said he's closer to murder supporting Ben Gvir than to mainstream Zionist Lapid. Sure a great defense team!

We only need to hear from UTJ's Litzman, who may himself be indicted for using his power to cover up sex abuse by a fellow Haredi woman, what he plans to do.

What an absolute clown car. Either this really is the end of the road for the government and this is what ugly breakups look like, or else the democratic experiment that is Israel is done. I guess the next month will be pretty instructive.

[Oryxslayer]

This poll has to be wrong...right? If Bibi indicted (I mean it's happened...) B&W gets 44 to Likuds 25. I mean their current numbers are in line with what everyone else is saying...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/indictment-announcement-is-an-election-game-changer-times-of-israel-poll-shows/

[jaichind]

ALAN DERSHOWITZ PUBLISHES LETTER DEFENDING NETANYAHU

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Alan-Dershowitz-publishes-open-letter-to-A-G-defending-Netanyahu-581888

[America Needs R'hllor]

ALAN DERSHOWITZ PUBLISHES LETTER DEFENDING NETANYAHU

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Alan-Dershowitz-publishes-open-letter-to-A-G-defending-Netanyahu-581888

Lmao

[America Needs R'hllor]

One of the new stories Mandelblit revealed: Netanyahu demamded that news site Walla plays his 2015 election "Arabs voting in droves" story for hours and in noticeable places.

While not illegal by itself, Netanyahu's fondness for literal brainwashing always disturbed me.

[Walmart_shopper]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

But I still think a national unity government under PM Gantz is the end game here, especially for Kahlon, and probably for Gantz/Lapid, too.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In his press conference, Netanyahu isn't surprising anyone- he's spinning the Likud's newest strategy that it's all a leftist conspiracy to take down his government and that the pressure from the left forced Mandelblit's hand. Of course, it's a turn from their previous strategy of attacking the AG because, reportedly, their polls discovered that he's popular. This entire thing is so obviously manufactured that I can't imagine anyone seriously believing it, but many people will or just won't care.

[The Mikado]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

Would the bunch of generals that make up Gantz' half of Blue and White even tolerate sitting with Meretz (which would be required for that Blue & White/Labor/Meretz/Kulanu alliance you're describing)?

[America Needs R'hllor]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

Would the bunch of generals that make up Gantz' half of Blue and White even tolerate sitting with Meretz (which would be required for that Blue & White/Labor/Meretz/Kulanu alliance you're describing)?

Lol obviously. Many generals are leftists. No offense, but the fact that foreigners think all generals are bloodthirsty hawks who wouldn't tolerate any leftists shows how deep the misinformation about Isrsel goes

[Walmart_shopper]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

Would the bunch of generals that make up Gantz' half of Blue and White even tolerate sitting with Meretz (which would be required for that Blue & White/Labor/Meretz/Kulanu alliance you're describing)?

 

Why not? The top brass of the military in Israel is generally viewed as left-leaning. And Meretz is actually more pragmatic than people realize. They've sat in government with the ultra orthodox before. Give them the education ministry and they'll be fine.

It won't be a leftist government, despite the endless amount of fearmongering coming out of Bibi's mouth these days. Will be strongly secular? Yeah, but so is most of the country. Will it emphasize equality under the law to beore inclusive of Israel's massive non Jewish minority population? Maybe. Will it withdraw from the West Bank and try Oslo again?  If course not. Obviously the election hinges on whether the right can make people believe that Gantz is a closet peacenik. He's not. And he knows he's not. So if he can convince enough voters that he's not then I think he'll be fine bringing Meretz on board to a government that won't shut down the settlements but will actually try to work towards the two state solution that most Israelis want. I think Gantz is fine with that. And I think Meretz is fine with that.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm sitting by my phone hoping that Nina Zemach or Rafi Smith will call. I would imagine they are probably in the field right now cooking something up for a post-indictment poll release tomorrow or Saturday evening.

[Tintrlvr]

What's interesting is that Kulanu, which Bibi would likely need to cross the threshold to stay in power and which may not actually cross the threshold, has been very quiet when everyone else in the Kahanist alliance has promised post-election support for Netanyahu as PM. If that Times of Israel poll is correct, Gantz could get a strong and stable majority with Kulanu's support, and he wouldn't even need the Arab parties to do it. I don't believe that Kahlon wants to be part of a leftist government, but give him the treasury and ostensible veto power on legislation (as there is no majority without him) and you may very well have the first center left government in almost 30 years in Israel.

But I still think a national unity government under PM Gantz is the end game here, especially for Kahlon, and probably for Gantz/Lapid, too.

It's obvious that a center-left coalition including Kulanu would be the result if that poll actually came to life. After all, the right even including Kulanu does not have a majority (B&W+Labor+Meretz+Arabs is 65 seats) on that result, so B&W+Labor+Meretz+Kulanu is the only realistic coalition other than something a bit crazy like the religious parties with B&W or a B&W-Likud "grand coalition".

That said, I'm skeptical until we have more polling.

[jaichind]

This poll has to be wrong...right? If Bibi indicted (I mean it's happened...) B&W gets 44 to Likuds 25. I mean their current numbers are in line with what everyone else is saying...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/indictment-announcement-is-an-election-game-changer-times-of-israel-poll-shows/

It seems weird that Netanyahu indictment would lead to a fall in support for Shas.  I would think it should push some Likud votes to Shas.  Most likely I just do not know what I am talking about.   

[America Needs R'hllor]

This poll has to be wrong...right? If Bibi indicted (I mean it's happened...) B&W gets 44 to Likuds 25. I mean their current numbers are in line with what everyone else is saying...



https://www.timesofisrael.com/indictment-announcement-is-an-election-game-changer-times-of-israel-poll-shows/

It seems weird that Netanyahu indictment would lead to a fall in support for Shas.  I would think it should push some Likud votes to Shas.  Most likely I just do not know what I am talking about.   

I doubt anyone who votes for Shas cares about corruption But anyhow, yeah, this poll is weird. I guess there are just statistical mistakes, which likely just means Shas, YB and Ra'am-Balad are close to the threshold. I'd still take it with a grain of salt though.

Re: politicized arguments: David, I actually think I'm sometimes guilty of that too. Especially on issues like Kahanism I'm truly very passionate about and truly very disturbed by, so I'll probably keep going on these issues, but I'd like to think I'm able to couple it with objective reporting/analysing. I think Walmart_shopper likely is from Israel and imo he made some good contributions and it's nice to have more voices so I'd keep an open mind

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt anyone who votes for Shas cares about corruption

No, no, they care deeply about it. They just want their cut. Like the people who vote for all the weird ex-DC/ex-PSI outfits in southern Italy. Or everyone in Northern Ireland.

[DC Al Fine]

Two questions:

1) What was Kulanu's appeal/core demographic? Why are they on the verge of being squeezed out?

2) I find it puzzling that more of Likud's supporters haven't bailed. In Canada, the Tories can count on 30% of the vote and tramp down schisms because of our previous experience under a divided right and FPTP. That doesn't apply in Israel. If Bibi is in trouble, why haven't more of his voters left for another right wing party or more of his rivals in Likud split to start their own parties?

[DavidB.]

Two questions:

1) What was Kulanu's appeal/core demographic? Why are they on the verge of being squeezed out?

Kulanu have mostly focused on economic issues/reforms and attracted a rather heterogeneous group of voters, but middle-class people in particular, and quite a lot of Mizrahim (Kahlon's parents are from Libya). These are people who still care about economic reforms and often think Kahlon has not achieved enough as Finance Minister in the government - a lot of them are presumably going for Blue and White now. Many Kulanu voters have voted for the Likud in the past but think they moved too far to the right under Netanyahu (or they don't like his perceived corruption).

2) I find it puzzling that more of Likud's supporters haven't bailed. In Canada, the Tories can count on 30% of the vote and tramp down schisms because of our previous experience under a divided right and FPTP. That doesn't apply in Israel. If Bibi is in trouble, why haven't more of his voters left for another right wing party or more of his rivals in Likud split to start their own parties?

Partisanship is rather strong among Likud supporters, partly for historical reasons, and Israeli media are highly partisan too. A lot of people who vote for Likud are unlikely to believe the allegations are true or just don't care even if they are true. You can perhaps compare it to Trump's rather high "floor". And there is no catch-all party like Likud on the right. Bennett is trying, but Netanyahu is simply too popular among the general right-wing public. It's the more centrist-inclined Likud voters who are jumping ship now, which isn't a lot of the Likud vote but which of course might make all the difference in the election.

[DC Al Fine]

Thank you.

[Walmart_shopper]

Radio 103 has the first poll after the announcement and for the first time in their polling the right is without a majority in the Knesset.

Blue and white 37
Likud 25
Union of Right-Wing Parties 10
New Right 8
Labor 7
Hadash/Taal 7
Meretz 6
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Kulanu 5

The right wing (including Kulanu) has 60. The center left (including the Arab parties) has 60.

My read is that there is a very slow dissolution of support on the right (maybe Likud voters sitting this one out or wasting their votes on Zehut). With Kulanu and without the Arab parties,  the center left is six seats away from a majority. If they can pick off those six seats then there is probably the next government. If not then perhaps a chastened Likud will agree to national unity (with Gideon Saar or Yisrael Katz leading the party). Otherwise, new elections, which I would imagine would be much worse for the right than for the left given the rising popularity of Blue and White.

On the other hand, the center left WITH Hadash/Taal is only 4 seats away from a majority.  A massive Arab turnout or high Tel Aviv turnout (which are both usually quite a bit lower than the rest of the country) could easily get to 61. If Likud refuses national unity then I wonder if the Arab parties are brought on board to prop up a minority government.

[America Needs R'hllor]

2) I find it puzzling that more of Likud's supporters haven't bailed. In Canada, the Tories can count on 30% of the vote and tramp down schisms because of our previous experience under a divided right and FPTP. That doesn't apply in Israel. If Bibi is in trouble, why haven't more of his voters left for another right wing party or more of his rivals in Likud split to start their own parties?

Partisanship is rather strong among Likud supporters, partly for historical reasons, and Israeli media are highly partisan too. A lot of people who vote for Likud are unlikely to believe the allegations are true or just don't care even if they are true. You can perhaps compare it to Trump's rather high "floor". And there is no catch-all party like Likud on the right. Bennett is trying, but Netanyahu is simply too popular among the general right-wing public. It's the more centrist-inclined Likud voters who are jumping ship now, which isn't a lot of the Likud vote but which of course might make all the difference in the election.

I'd add that it's not Likud that is popular, it's Netanyahu himself- he's seen by many as King Bibi, the defender of Israel, the only man who can keep our economy stable and our children safe. Once he goes away, it's hard to say what will happen to Likud, but I think the chance for an implosion exists.

Radio 103 has the first poll after the announcement and for the first time in their polling the right is without a majority in the Knesset.

Blue and white 37
Likud 25
Kahanists 10
New Right 8
Labor 7
Hadash/Taal 7
Meretz 6
Shas 6
UTJ 6
Kulanu 5

If the party including two nazis and promoting one of them, the admitted murder supporter, to our judiciary picking committee, is the third biggest in my country, I'll be really f**king sad. It's disappointing that many Likud voters' second choice is the party home to Michael Ben Ari, founder of terrorist organizations, and Itamar Ben Gvir, one of the most evil and disgusting assholes in politics. My biggest hope in this election is not a leftist government- it's that the Israeli public rejects this evil force that stands against everything our country is about. If the Kahanists continue to be legitimized, I'll continue to lose my hope for the Zionist dream.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Please use the official party name/abbreviation when posting a new poll.

[jaichind]

Wow.  URWP seems to be gaining at the expense of Likud, I guess the main winner out of the Netanyahu indictment seems to be for now, NRWP.