Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[urutzizu]

37 Blue and White
36 Likud
8 Labor
7 Shas
7 Utj
6 Odeh-Tibi
5 Meretz
5 Kahlon
5 Union of the right
4 Liberman
all others including feiglin out
from Channel 11

[Sestak]

Ch12 exit polls show 60-60 seat tie apparently

[Walmart_shopper]

Channel 12 has Kaholavan 37 to Likud 33.

[Sestak]

https://twitter.com/amirtibon/status/1115692002606239744?s=21

[danny]

Link to the actual results once they start coming in:

https://votes21.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

[Walmart_shopper]

So here are my predictions:

Blue and White: 34
Likud: 29
Labor: 9
Hadash-Taal: 7
UTJ: 7
Zehut: 6
United Right: 5
New Right: 5
Meretz: 5
Liberman: 5
Ram Balaad: 4
Shas: 4

Right wing + Zehut: 61
Center-left + Arab parties: 59

My hunch is that we'll get a national unity government of some sort led by Benny Gantz, but I won't bother predicting coalition talks at this point.

Just gonna leave this here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1115691724519690240



One of these has a tied block. Either way, it looks like my earlier hypothesis was right that there would be a centralization of votes unseen in israeli politics in a  long time.

[jaichind]

I guess who has the upper hand in forming government really depends on who crosses the threshold and who does not.  With so many parties close in both direction I guess we will not know until well into the night.

[AndyHogan14]

And the fun begins...let's go Gantz. Anyone but Bibi!

[Matty]

Wow

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1115691724519690240



One of these has a tied block. Either way, it looks like my earlier hypothesis was right that there would be a centralization of votes unseen in israeli politics in a  long time.

Raam Balaad getting over the threshold would be stunning.

Also, I24 basically just cut and pasted my prediction into its exit poll. Not cool, guys. Not cool.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of these has a tied block. Either way, it looks like my earlier hypothesis was right that there would be a centralization of votes unseen in israeli politics in a  long time.

Peak Israeli politics would be that they form a coalition and both get beaten badly next time round.

[_]

Well, let the games begin!

[Walmart_shopper]

One of these has a tied block. Either way, it looks like my earlier hypothesis was right that there would be a centralization of votes unseen in israeli politics in a  long time.

Peak Israeli politics would be that they form a coalition and both get beaten badly next time round.

But that's exactly what's going to happen. Kaholavan will fall apart after the election because Yeah Atid and Gantz's Likud Lite won't work out. And Likud after Bibi will be messy.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1115694568702394370

Full channel 11. I think Zehut might be underpolled...

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1115694568702394370

Full channel 11. I think Zehut might be underpolled...

Zehut is out in all 3 exit polls and the New right in 2/3.

[jaichind]

Zehut is out in all 3 exit polls and the New right in 2/3.

Oh no ... (at least for the Zehut part)

[jaichind]

It seems Gantz has claimed victory ...

[urutzizu]

It seems Gantz has claimed victory ...

Netanyahu has also on twitter.

[urutzizu]

Exit Poll results:
Channel 11: 50 centre-left, 6 Arabs,  64 right
Channel 12: 53 centre left, 7 Arabs, 60 right
Channel 13: 47 centre-left, 7 Arabs, 66 right

Channel 12 is massive outlier. If 11 or 13 are right then Netanyahu might actually have a stable right-wing coalition without zehut and new right (until he goes to jail that is)

[jaichind]

Does anyone have the total channel 12 exit poll party breakdown ?

[Umengus]

another exit poll:

Israel, i24 poll:

B&W-Centrists: 37 LKD-ECR: 33 LAB-S&D: 8 UTJ-Religious: 7 TA+HA-GUE/NGL: 7 URWP-Right: 7 NR-Right: 7 KL-Centrists: 6 SH-Religious: 5 MTZ-S&D: 5 ZH-Right: 4 BA+RA-GUE/NGL: 4 IB-Right: 0 GH-Right: 0

[Oryxslayer]

Also, did the activity on the israel thread just crash the site, or was that just more of the updates from earlier.

[jaichind]

Exit Poll results:
Channel 11: 50 centre-left, 6 Arabs,  64 right
Channel 12: 53 centre left, 7 Arabs, 60 right
Channel 13: 47 centre-left, 7 Arabs, 66 right

Channel 12 is massive outlier. If 11 or 13 are right then Netanyahu might actually have a stable right-wing coalition without zehut and new right (until he goes to jail that is)

Looking at the chart Oryxslayer provided the channel 12 exit poll looks pretty fishy.  If Arab turnout dropped then how come the Arab parties are at 12 seats ?

[Oryxslayer]

Chan 11/Chan 12/Chan 13/I24/I24 Poll 2

B&W: 37 – 37 – 37 - 36 - 33
Labor: 8 – 6 – 8 -7 - 8
Meretz: 5 – 5 – 5 - 4 - 5
Hadaash-Taal: 6 – 6 – 7 - 7 - 7
Raam-balad: Out – Out – 4 - Out - 4

Likud: 36 – 33 – 33 - 36 - 27
UTJ: 7 – 7 – 7 - 7 - 7
Shas: 7 – 6 – 5 - 7 - 6
URWP: 5 – 5 – 7 - 4 - 6
Kulanu: 5 – 4 – 6 - 4 - 6
YB: 4 – 5 – Out - Out - Out
Zehut: Out – out – 4 – Out - 4
New Right: Out – Out – 7 – 7 - 7

these numbers cam from Asiaelects. The chart was from a guy who responded to me on twitter.