Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Former President tack50]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

Yes, the courts overturned that decision and banned one of the Kahanists instead.

What kind of justification did the courts use to justify that decision? Banning the Kahanists and not Raam-Balad?

[_]

Y'know, following this election and talking with Parrotguy and HCP have really changed my views on Israel, a lot, and I just want to thank them for that.

Anyway a prediction:

B&W:  33 Seats
Likud:  29 Seats
Labor:  13 Seats
Hadash-Ta'Al:  9 Seats
Meretz:  7 Seats
Zehut:  7 Seats
URWP:  6 Seats
New Right:  6 Seats
UTJ:  6 Seats
Shas:  4 Seats

YB, Kulanu, Ra'am Balad, and Gesher below the threshold.

I can't allow myself to think a result this good will happen.

Naive hope is nice, allows you to believe that good things can happen

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Ra'am-Balad was in the end able to participate in the elections?

Yes, but then this always happens. It's an entirely absurd cabaret, one that everyone involved is quite knowing about. Had it not happened this time then that list would almost certainly have dropped below the threshold; as it is, it still has a chance.

[danny]

What kind of justification did the courts use to justify that decision? Banning the Kahanists and not Raam-Balad?

The courts didn't publish their reasoning, but in general their isn't really any connection between the two, and the reason for (attempted) banning was different (incitement to racism for the Kahanist versus opposing a Jewish state for RAAM-BALAD).

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is making his final pitch to voters by claiming that Yitzhak Rabin was actually more right wing than Kahane so people shouldn't get so uptight about Ben Gvir being a part of government.

He started his career by leading a campaign of incitement, dishonesty, and violence against Rabin. Now he's going to end it that way, too. His first campaign contributed to Rabin's death. If anything us right with this country then his last campaign will be his own political end.

[Donerail]

Likud: 31
B&W: 27
Labor: 11
Hadash-Ta’al: 8
Zehut: 7
New Right: 6
United Right: 6
UTJ: 6
Ra’am-Balad: 5
Shas: 5
Kulanu: 4
Meretz: 4
YB/Gesher below threshold

Right-religious 65, center-left-Arab 55, but an… uncomfortable governing coalition for Netanyahu.

[Former President tack50]

What kind of justification did the courts use to justify that decision? Banning the Kahanists and not Raam-Balad?

The courts didn't publish their reasoning, but in general their isn't really any connection between the two, and the reason for (attempted) banning was different (incitement to racism for the Kahanist versus opposing a Jewish state for RAAM-BALAD).

Don't Raam-Balad pretty clearly oppose a Jewish state? I'd have thought the reason for a ban was crystal clear.

[DavidB.]

Now here's an interesting scenario: the right doesn't have a majority, B&W come first, Likud and B&W fall short of 61 seats and Kulanu is out. Which party does the unity government team up with? Labour would be difficult for Likud, New Right for B&W and the Haredim can't sit with Lapid.

Netanyahu is making his final pitch to voters by claiming that Yitzhak Rabin was actually more right wing than Kahane so people shouldn't get so uptight about Ben Gvir being a part of government.

Now that's what's properly called a weird flex. Thought he could emulate his Brazilian friend?

[danny]

Don't Raam-Balad pretty clearly oppose a Jewish state? I'd have thought the reason for a ban was crystal clear.

Yes, but I don't think the supreme court is terribly concerned about the law in such matters.

[Walmart_shopper]

Now here's an interesting scenario: the right doesn't have a majority, B&W come first, Likud and B&W fall short of 61 seats and Kulanu is out. Which party does the unity government team up with?

There's been a lot of gossip about a Labor-Blue White-Likud coalition, which would cover the main ideological blocs and have overwhelming support from the public. But it would be tough to convince Labor to join because staying out would make Avi Gabbay opposition leader with a new election possible in less than a year when Netanyahu goes to trial (or pleas out or whatever).

There's also been a fair amount of chatter about bringing the Haredim into the government. But very few Israelis would support this, it would fracture Yesh Atid, it would make the coalition very unstable, and it's likely that both Shas and UTJ leaders will also be indicted within the year for their own serious crimes.

[Oryxslayer]

Now here's an interesting scenario: the right doesn't have a majority, B&W come first, Likud and B&W fall short of 61 seats and Kulanu is out. Which party does the unity government team up with? Labour would be difficult for Likud, New Right for B&W and the Haredim can't sit with Lapid.

Quite an outside scenario, but I suspect someone will be willing to compromise on certain values for cabinet seats, its what a few of the right wing parties did last time around. Might actually be Zehut, since marijuana is clearly the core of their ticket, everything else could be traded away. Meretz is also there, and probably would be in the ideal position to compromise values for power, especially to support the left. Everyone else except labour is more or less beyond the cordon in this scenario, unless some serious political spinning occurs from a minor right party.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I was thinking about Zehut too. Though I really disagree that it's all about marijuana for them. Feiglin is a far-right ideologue, not an Ale Yarok type. The way he sells his party is different from the way the guy thinks.

There's been a lot of gossip about a Labor-Blue White-Likud coalition, which would cover the main ideological blocs and have overwhelming support from the public. But it would be tough to convince Labor to join because staying out would make Avi Gabbay opposition leader with a new election possible in less than a year when Netanyahu goes to trial (or pleas out or whatever)

If that happens, I'd want to be Naftali Bennett. Would be electoral suicide for Likud. So I'd say it's also worth watching whether Likud and B&W reach a majority in the first place.

The longer I think about it, the more I wouldn't be surprised if a ton of parties end up below the threshold. That would be a total trip.

[Oryxslayer]

The longer I think about it, the more I wouldn't be surprised if a ton of parties end up below the threshold. That would be a total trip.

Thats my prediction if you head back to the previous page, a unusually dichotomous Knesset. If it happens, then polling will be way off since so many seats will now be in the air, and likely heading for the big two.

[Tender Branson]

So, this is already tomorrow ?

Not going to make a detailed prediction, but I assume that Ganz will defeat Netanyahu by about 5% or 5-10 seats. But maybe he can hang on somehow as PM.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, heres this map of 2015 results: http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/. This was a battle between Tel-Aviv, Haifa, and the Coastal towns versus Jerusalem, Beer Sheba, smaller non-kibbutz settlements and the Suburbs. The polarization probably returns in tomorrows results.

[DavidB.]

So let's do another prediction game based on that map:

(1 point each)
Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015?
Biggest party across the country?
Biggest party in Jerusalem?
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon?
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv?
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order)
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim?
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem?
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel?
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv?
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva?
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba?
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa?
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order)
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an?
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha?
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya?
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana?
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat?
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut?

[DavidB.]

Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015? Down
Biggest party across the country? Likud
Biggest party in Jerusalem? Likud
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon? Likud
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv? Under
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order) URWP, New Right, Zehut
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim? Over
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem? Under
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel? Blue and White
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv? Jerusalem
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva? Under
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba? Over
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa? Over
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order) Blue and White, Likud, Labour, Hadash-Ta'al
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an? Under
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha? Under
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya? Under
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana? Sderot
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat? Under
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut? Over

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LahavHarkov/status/1115349879260360704

If Bibi really hired McLaughin of all pollsters.... What if bibi was making moves out of desperation because McLaughlin sucks and was getting bad data?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

currently in Israel visiting my cousin who is having a baby, Hadash supporters are having a watch party tonight to watch the results, looking forward to it!

[danny]

Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015? Down
Biggest party across the country? B&W
Biggest party in Jerusalem? Likud
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon? B&W
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv? Over
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order) URWP, New Right, Likud
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim? Over
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem? Over
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel? Kulanu
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv? Jerusalem
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva? Under
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba? Under
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa? Under
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order) Blue and White, Likud, Labour, Hadash-TAAL
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an? Over
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha? Under
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya? Over
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana? Ra'anana
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat? Over
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut? Over

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Final turnout percentage up or down from 2015? Down
Biggest party across the country? Likud
Biggest party in Jerusalem? Likud
Biggest party in Rishon LeTziyon? B&W
Blue and White under or over 34% in Tel Aviv? Over
Top-3 in Itamar? (bonus point for correct order) URWP, Likud, New Right
New Right under or over 10% in Ma'ale Adumim? Under
Likud under or over 25% in Jerusalem? Over
Biggest party in Daliyat-al-Karmel? Likud
Better Zehut score in Jerusalem or in Tel Aviv? Jerusalem
Gap between Likud and B&W under or over 25 points in Beersheva? Under
URWP under or over 50% in Kiryat Arba? Under
Zehut under or over 15% in the stoner settlement of Tekoa? Over
First four parties in Haifa? (bonus point for correct order) Blue and White, Likud, Labor, Hadash
Likud under or over 50% in Beit She'an? Over
YB under or over 15% in Ma'alot Tarsicha? Under
Labour under or over 14% in Herzliya? Over
Better Zehut score in Sderot or Ra'anana? Sderot
Shas under or over 8% in Kiryat Gat? Under
B&W under or over 35% in Modi'in-Maccabim-Reut? Over

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

B&W: 30
Likud: 25
Labor: 9
Zehut: 9
Hadash-Ta’al: 7
United Right: 6
UTJ: 6
New Right: 5
Ra’am-Balad: 5
Meretz: 5
Shas: 4
Kulanu: 4
YB: 4

Gesher below threshold

[jaichind]

Is election day still a holiday in Israel ?  When does poll close Tel Aviv time ?  I assume exit polls come out at the same time ?

[Oryxslayer]

Is election day still a holiday in Israel ?  When does poll close Tel Aviv time ?  I assume exit polls come out at the same time ?

No idea about the former, but polls close at 20:00/8:00 pm local time. This is 1pm on the east coast. Exit polls will be dropped then.

[Donerail]

psh, nobody cares about that shit

the real question: at what point in the day tomorrow will there be anecdotal turnout reports to celebrate and/or freak out about?