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It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I personally have my doubts but we shall see. NC always seemed to have a lot more places where Democrats could collapse further than Georgia. When Obama won NC in 2008 he was winning or at least coming close in many rural white Appalachian precincts - in Georgia however rural whites are already pretty close to as red as they can get. I think the main thing that could change my view is if we actually see black voters shift right in large magnitudes for cycle after cycle.

Also Georgia growth is just far more lopsided in Dems favor than NC. In GA most fo the growth is coming out of metro Atlanta and making it bluer, whereas in NC you had some counteracting growth in certain exurban areas and along the NC coast.

I think he's a centrist at heart who has been pressured by progressives who are unaware of how unpopular some of their policy positions are, and leftists who are unlikely to support and vote for him in the first place. He should be getting his advice from someone like Obama who managed to win despite previously trailing Romney or better yet a veteran like Carville. Even someone like Bill Maher who has no political experiences appears to have better instincts.

No objections, but to be more general for a moment I am operating on the assumption that the Governor still maintains their office thread, office actions etc. and merely has their own elected seat in the chamber as well. If the sponsor believes this to be correct I'll move forward on cleaning up the language with that in mind.

I am fully in favor of the first two, but what is the issue with having a governor who isn’t a member of the LGC? I would like either option to be a possibility. I would like to see Governor Liminal retained (my intention for this legislation was it to take effect after the end of the current gubernatorial term) but going forward the Governor being a member of the LGC could become something that’s customary but not required. (see: Speaker of the House irl)

the latest Amendment to the Amendment is adopted.

Well, if you look at my original post in this thread you will see I'm much more comfortable with the Governor not being a member of the LGC actually. But if we are moving toward a parliamentary system then there would be nothing stopping the Governor from taking up a seat.

If either having an LGC seat or not would both be possible I'll continue working on the amendment.

Both would be possible.

The Catholic Church runs of the largest charities globally ever.

Maybe. But in the US they seem to care almost exclusively about politics and imposing their views to other people (much like southern Evangelicals do). That has been true ever since the Legion of Decency which decided what movies should be shown in cinemas and how they should depict not only the Catholic church itself but everything, from sex to profanity.

You don't see this kind of polarization with non Anglo catholic communities. I wonder why. And as some pointed out the big shift in US Christianity is with Minority Christians.



Then again, No one seems to follow the Late Cardinal Francis George's reminder; that the church is neither Liberal or Conservative, simply Catholic.

The Catholic Church runs of the largest charities globally ever.

Maybe. But in the US they seem to care almost exclusively about politics and imposing their views to other people (much like southern Evangelicals do). That has been true ever since the Legion of Decency which decided what movies should be shown in cinemas and how they should depict not only the Catholic church itself but everything, from sex to profanity.

There’s a reason Pope Francis sacked Joseph Strickland. I wish Pope Francis would do more cleaning up of the American church.

You also have to consider the fact that; it's hard to find replacements. Priests are turning down appointments at a higher rate, and it's hard to find priests ( at least in America ) with Pope Francis's pastoral vision. Some good appointments have been made in the last few months but not enough.



Cardinal Sean O Malley is almost 80 and he still hasn't retired yet because the Vatican can't find a replacement for him, and he's relatively moderate.

It's kind of interesting how fast Georgia went from the swing state Democrats felt most optimistic about to arguably the state they're most pessimistic about.

After 2020 and 2021, Democrats sort of had a honeymoon phase in Georgia where it was assumed Atlanta's growth and increasing black population would pull the state left for the long run. Then in 2022 Democrats had a pretty underwhelming midterm in GA outside the Senate race failing to come close at the state level. Now in 2024, polling and pundits both suggests Trump winning Georgia with relative ease.

Regardless of if Trump ends up winning GA or not, this shows how fast a narrative about a state can turn around.

Georgia could possibly follow the direction of North Carolina where it lent it’s electoral votes to democrats in 2008 then stubbornly vote GOP cycles after albeit by small margins.

I feel like there's arguments for both.

Outside being black, many in group 1 have demographic characteristics that would make them seem unfavorable for Democrats - most heavily black communities have lower educational attainment, decent religious affiliation, and often hold more conservative social views. One reason to believe these communities may not swing notably rightwards is they really didn't in 2020 - if you look at >95% black precincts in New York City, Chicago, or the deep south, the swings were usually <5% towards Trump.

The second group by definition would be harder to analyze because of how they're distributed, but these are black voters who may be more likely to be disconnected from the black community and more assimilated with other cultures, and hence pick up the politics of their neighbors. A huge reason why black voters have historically been so Dem leaning is because of the social collective of the group. If these voters become more disconnected from the "black community", could they shift right because certain social dynamics just don't exist? One reason to believe this group might not shift right is it's more likely to have certain characteristics that favor Democrats like better college attainment than black voters in heavily black neighborhoods.

[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

I think there are many groups using Israeli/Gaza as a reason to express deeper anger towards Biden.

1. I made a thread about this a while back but many Arab Americans were already going to flip to Trump or at least not vote for Biden pre-10/7 due to some of their more socially conservative religious views. This can be shown in the 2022 midterm results where places like Dearborn and Hamtramack in MI were the only parts of the state to swing hard right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov and this was pre 10/7.

2. Many progressives who were never going to vote for Biden - many of whom perhaps didn't vote for him in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. These types are angry and want to burn the system down which they don't see Biden as the right person for. There are so many cases I've seen online where a progressive twitter or Instagram account says "I'm so fed up and won't be voting for Biden" - then people go back through their history and finds they were never a Dem voter in the first place.

3. This sort of ties into the last group but young people with a lot of economic anxiety. Many of the biggest economic problems right now (i.e. high housing prices) disproportionately affect young people while things that are doing well (i.e. the stock market) tend to not matter as much to younger folks. I  think many of these types use Israeli-Gaza as a vehicle to express their anger when the root of it is more based around the economy.

[most will still vote Biden]

I think the angriest will just stay home, vote third party or leave the presidential ballot blank. Ultimately, though, most will still vote Biden because they know Trump will be worse for Gaza and Muslim Americans.

I think the discontent runs deeper than you give it credit for. There’s still time for things to change, though.

I think there are many groups using Israeli/Gaza as a reason to express deeper anger towards Biden.

1. I made a thread about this a while back but many Arab Americans were already going to flip to Trump or at least not vote for Biden pre-10/7 due to some of their more socially conservative religious views. This can be shown in the 2022 midterm results where places like Dearborn and Hamtramack in MI were the only parts of the state to swing hard right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov and this was pre 10/7.

2. Many progressives who were never going to vote for Biden - many of whom perhaps didn't vote for him in 2020 or Clinton in 2016. These types are angry and want to burn the system down which they don't see Biden as the right person for. There are so many cases I've seen online where a progressive twitter or Instagram account says "I'm so fed up and won't be voting for Biden" - then people go back through their history and finds they were never a Dem voter in the first place.

3. This sort of ties into the last group but young people with a lot of economic anxiety. Many of the biggest economic problems right now (i.e. high housing prices) disproportionately affect young people while things that are doing well (i.e. the stock market) tend to not matter as much to younger folks. I  think many of these types use Israeli-Gaza as a vehicle to express their anger when the root of it is more based around the economy.

McLaughlin is horrible so if they best they can manage for Trump is a tie...