Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Lord Halifax]

The fact Russia is 81% ethnic Russian, which is a higher share than the proportion of England that is ethnic English for example gives it an internal unity that the USSR which was only 51% ethnic Russian lacked. Russia today for the first time in many centuries is basically a homogenous nation with over 80% of the population belonging to a single ethnic group, that gives it a level of stability that was lacking in the past.

the share of ethnic Russians is declining all the time, so that's a temporary advantage, and ethnicity is not the only fault line in a society and the rich/ordinary people and center/periphery cleavages are huge.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/55934ed3-b7e7-48a2-ad88-f9ed503b21b3

"European countries rebuff Kyiv’s calls for more air defences"

I think the issue is the various EU countries do not have that much in the first place.

[UWS]

Montenegro will train Ukrainian troops

https://en.vijesti.me/news/society/702496/rse-Montenegrin-soldiers-will-train-members-of-the-Ukrainian-armed-forces

[Silent Hunter]

https://www.ft.com/content/55934ed3-b7e7-48a2-ad88-f9ed503b21b3

"European countries rebuff Kyiv’s calls for more air defences"

I think the issue is the various EU countries do not have that much in the first place.

They really don't. Britain, of course not in the EU now, is reliant on the Typhoons for anything beyond short range. If you want to see a medium-range SAM, look in a museum.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/53228051-f42b-4c63-bad6-e6a5bfd54d7c

"Ukraine’s top commander says eastern frontline has ‘significantly worsened’"

Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defences and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

They did this in the Chechen war and in multiple Soviet era conflicts as well.

China also was notorious for using soldiers from rural provinces and ethnic minorities for some of its worst military actions (e.g. Tianmen) - the thinking was that a) their lives were worth less and would thus raise less of an outcry in the ruling class if the sh**t hit the fan and b) they tended to be less educated/literate so were seen as easier to control than Han soldiers from urban areas.

[jaichind]

So in this context of the War in Ukraine, Russia's army is 15 % higher than in February 2022. It must be an effect of the decree that Putin ratified that imposed a draft for the Russians aged 18 and older to Russian military and another proof that they are preparing a large-scale offensive for May or June. That's why we the United States of America and our allies need to accelerate provision of military equipment to Ukraine to help them counter such an offensive.

But at least this claim should be thrown out of the window

[jaichind]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

They did this in the Chechen war and in multiple Soviet era conflicts as well.

China also was notorious for using soldiers from rural provinces and ethnic minorities for some of its worst military actions (e.g. Tianmen) - the thinking was that a) their lives were worth less and would thus raise less of an outcry in the ruling class if the sh**t hit the fan and b) they tended to be less educated/literate so were seen as easier to control than Han soldiers from urban areas.

Seems what is claimed here is also likely to take place in the USA in the next war

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

"Army Sees Sharp Decline in White Recruits"

In 2018, 56.4% of new recruits were categorized as white. In 2023, that number had fallen to 44%. During that same five-year period, Black recruits have gone from 20% to 24% of the pool, and Hispanic recruits have risen from 17% to 24%, with both groups seeing largely flat recruiting totals but increasing as a percentage of incoming soldiers as white recruiting has fallen.

[Storr]

"European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country.
Report w/@HenryJFoy @GuyChazan https://on.ft.com/3Jel2qG via @FT"

"Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they had about 100 in their arsenal they could spare.

Kyiv is lobbying for Patriot systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”

European capitals have said that they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain defence capabilities."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1778841110019703234

"Germany, a country without nuclear weapons nor the might of the USAF nor the Atlantic and Pacific oceans separating itself from Russia has donated 25% of their Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine.

The United States has donated 1.8%."

"Zelensky says he spoke to German Chancellor Scholz and thanked him for the new Patriot air defense system.

“This is a genuine show of support for Ukraine in a critical moment. I urge all other partner country leaders to follow suit.”"

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1779160904313004155

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1779141806627639755

[nicholas.slaydon]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

They did this in the Chechen war and in multiple Soviet era conflicts as well.

China also was notorious for using soldiers from rural provinces and ethnic minorities for some of its worst military actions (e.g. Tianmen) - the thinking was that a) their lives were worth less and would thus raise less of an outcry in the ruling class if the sh**t hit the fan and b) they tended to be less educated/literate so were seen as easier to control than Han soldiers from urban areas.

Seems what is claimed here is also likely to take place in the USA in the next war

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

"Army Sees Sharp Decline in White Recruits"

In 2018, 56.4% of new recruits were categorized as white. In 2023, that number had fallen to 44%. During that same five-year period, Black recruits have gone from 20% to 24% of the pool, and Hispanic recruits have risen from 17% to 24%, with both groups seeing largely flat recruiting totals but increasing as a percentage of incoming soldiers as white recruiting has fallen.

The difference between the two (which apparently Russian propagandists hacks can't recognize) is that Russia operates a conscript based army whereas the US army is volunteer only.

[GMantis]

So in this context of the War in Ukraine, Russia's army is 15 % higher than in February 2022. It must be an effect of the decree that Putin ratified that imposed a draft for the Russians aged 18 and older to Russian military and another proof that they are preparing a large-scale offensive for May or June. That's why we the United States of America and our allies need to accelerate provision of military equipment to Ukraine to help them counter such an offensive.

No, this was just the routine peacetime draft. Putin's not dumb enough to send them to Ukraine - he hasn't forgotten the backlash against the usage of conscripts in Chechnya.

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more separatist fervor.  I would think people from, you know, Zabaykalsky, wouldn't be too thrilled about having their young working-age men drafted by Putin to go die on a battlefield 3,500 miles away in the name of protecting the ethnic eastern slavic peoples of Kherson from having to continue living under Ukrainian rule rather than Russian rule.

Apart from the already mentioned fact that this region is largely ethnic Russia, there hasn't been a draft since September 2022. As long as the new soldiers are recruited for money or from prisons, there is unlikely to be much opposition to the war - regardless of where in Russia this happens.

Tbh something I got completely wrong in the beginning of the war was the tolerance level for high casualties the Russian population wouldn’t have. After being able to interact with actual Ukrainians on the ground and getting more local perspectives it’s seems fair to Russian population is closer to Nazi German levels complicit in this atrocity and Putin’s hatred of the Ukrainian ethnic identity and resentments over the loss of the Soviet empire is very widespread amongst the population

The comparison is not even close to accurate. The number of Russians fighting in this war is minor compared to the number of Germans fighting on the Eastern front. Nor have Russians been indoctrinated into hatred of Ukrainians, like ordinary German soldiers were indoctrinated into hating Slavs and Jews. In fact, polls have consistently showed that few Russians harbor any animosity towards Ukrainians as a people Your whole theory rests on the false assumption that Russians have exactly the same information on the war as one can receive in countries friendly to Ukraine, that they fully believe it's true but support the war despite that.

the share of ethnic Russians is declining all the time, so that's a temporary advantage, and ethnicity is not the only fault line in a society and the rich/ordinary people and center/periphery cleavages are huge.

Nope, it grew from 78% to 81% between 2010 and 2021. As for the other cleavages, there is surprisingly little support for regionalism in Russia considering its size.

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

It should be pointed out that contract soldiers are recruited mostly from the poorer parts of the population, where ethnic minorities are disproportionately represented, which accounts for most of the discrepancy. The other major explanation is the low number of people drafted from Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Other than that, it doesn't seem that the number of ethnic Russians are significantly lower than would be expected.

They did this in the Chechen war and in multiple Soviet era conflicts as well.

I've never seen any evidence that such a thing happened for the Chechen war. It's definitely false for WWII, where the casualties among ethnic Russians were considerably higher per capita than for other ethnic groups as well as for the Afghanistan war where they were about equal to their share of the population.

[UWS]

Here's why we need to deliver Ukrainians in the military systems, including long-range missiles and warplanes, now, the attack that Iran conducted yesterday towards Israel saw the launch of over 300 drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles. And Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system and its warplanes played a major role in intercepting 99 % of these drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles and therefore to keep Israel's skies safe, to keep their infrastructure safe and to keep the Israeli people safe and to save millions and millions of lives

https://news.sky.com/story/what-is-israels-iron-dome-defence-system-and-why-is-it-so-effective-13114992

https://apnews.com/article/strait-of-hormuz-vessel-33fcffde2d867380e98c89403776a8ac

That's why we understand how much it is important to deliver Ukraine in all the military arsenal they need, including Patriot missiles and in F-16s. We all know that the Ukrainians defend their national territory and defeat Russia with spitballs.

[Storr]

"Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May ("Victory Day" in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

"I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets - Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy's plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy's daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the "Noviy" district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy's plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!"

https://t.me/osirskiy/652"


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779426768845185334

[jaichind]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/europe/russia-tactics-ukraine-energy-power-strikes-intl/index.html

"‘Their tactics have changed’: Russia’s bid to blow apart Ukraine’s power grid"

But, having emerged from winter, Pavlenko said, some of the air defenses may have been relocated – for instance, to Ukraine’s front lines. “It’s not a mistake, it’s just prioritization. We thought that if the winter ends, probably we can use the air defense system in other places,” she said.

Fits my narrative that part of Ukraine's strategy is to use air defense closer to the front to "ambush" Russian air assets.

It would be useful to find out if it was the Patriot system that brought down the Il-76.  Because if it was a Patriot system then I am leaning toward Ukraine shooting down the  Il-76 on purpose even if Ukraine POWs were on it.  The basic idea is that the Patriot system range is fairly narrow and usually Ukraine keeps them in large urban centers like Kiev.  To put them so close to the front, and putting them at great risk, must mean they where there for a mission.  In which case the shoot down of the  Il-76  is more on purpose.  The motivation for this is more about the high cost to produce  Il-76  but even greater cost to train a pilot for  Il-76.  There are not a lot of qualified  Il-76 pilots in Russia so the death of the  Il-76 pilot is a significant loss for Russia.

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148

Russia is playing their best hand after the fall of Avdiivka, and they've been able to push through poorly armed and undermanned Ukrainian positions.  Then they pushed Pervomaiske, Nevelsk, Novomykhalivka and Ivanivske. Now the line of attack has expanded from Bilohorivka to Vuhledar, as Russian Air Superiority neutralizes Ukrainian trenches and fortifications.  Russia is taking trenches in the Siversk direction that they wouldn't even approach months ago.  They're pummeling positions in and around Chasiv Yar.  Ukraine can't even move troops across the canal.  They can't reinforce the city with arms or recycle troops.  I don't think they can stop the Russians from crossing it. If Chasiv Yar and Stupocky are taken by the Russians, and Kostyantykivka and Kramatorsk supply lines are neutralized, does the UAF have any chance of stopping the Russians from collapsing the defensive line in Donetsk?   

https://twitter.com/inamullah_gh/status/1777405727163728151

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi says Russia set a goal of capturing Chasiv Yar by 9 May ("Victory Day" in Russia), in line with the future targets of reaching Kramatorks agglomeration (where Ukrainian Eastern HQ is located).

Full message:

"I worked in another, very important and dangerous direction.

The enemy is also concentrating efforts to break through our defenses west of Bakhmut, to reach the Siverskyi Donets - Donbas canal, capture the settlement of Chasiv Yar, and create conditions for further advance to the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

The implementation of the enemy's plans is hindered by the heroic defense of our brigades, which literally dug into the ground, holding back the enemy's daily attacks. Using numerical superiority and various motivational factors, including shootings [of their own], separate groups of enemy infantry reached the "Noviy" district, but were destroyed by FPV-kamikaze strikes and artillery fire.

At the same time, the threat remains relevant, taking into account the fact that the higher Russian military leadership has set the task for its troops to capture Chasiv Yar by May 9.

In order to respond adequately to the actions of the enemy and strengthen the defense of our troops in this direction, measures were taken to significantly strengthen the brigades with ammunition, drones, and EW devices.

The main conclusion from the two-day work at the front is the need to improve the quality of training, including the moral and psychological component, to increase the number of high-tech unmanned systems of various purposes with trained operators, to improve the quality of conducting asymmetric operations in order to reduce the combat potential of the enemy.

We continue to carry out organisational activities with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of management, eliminating duplication, directing freed resources to support combat units and units.

The main task of these measures is to increase the fighting capacity of our troops, save the lives of our soldiers, disrupt the enemy's plans, and ensure the preparation of reserves.

The fight continues!
Glory to Ukraine!"

https://t.me/osirskiy/652"


https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1779426768845185334

It’s really amazing they pick these dumb reasons for deadlines that end up causing them to monke wave tactics

[Hollywood]

https://twitter.com/Chronology22/status/1779762397453963440

https://twitter.com/MilitaryNerdd/status/1779736083967692858

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

What does the population pyramid for Russia look like right now?

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more separatist fervor.  I would think people from, you know, Zabaykalsky, wouldn't be too thrilled about having their young working-age men drafted by Putin to go die on a battlefield 3,500 miles away in the name of protecting the ethnic eastern slavic peoples of Kherson from having to continue living under Ukrainian rule rather than Russian rule.

The population pyramid for Russia is going to look terrible for the next generation and beyond
From last year, "Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem"

Continuing with the Ukraine war and mobilization efforts until the end of next spring would be "catastrophic" for Russia, Moscow demographer Igor Efremov told Bloomberg in the fall. It would likely bring birth rates down to 1 million between mid-2023 and mid-2024, dropping the fertility rate to 1.2 children per woman, a low mark Russia hit only once, in the 1999-2000 period. "A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed to keep populations stable without migration," Bloomberg adds, and currently Russia is facing "immigration outflows" and serious questions about its "ability to attract workers from abroad."

And yes, this is going to hit Ukraine as well.

As for why there's not more pro-separatist signs in Russia...

1) Virtually all Russian federal subjects are ruled from Moscow, by Moscow, for Moscow's benefit. (The exceptions are, to the best of my knowledge, Chechnya and Tartarstan. There may be a couple of others.) There is very little political "space" for separatist movements to grow in. If Russia ever does disintegrate, I would expect the disintegration to be rapid, in response to a collapse of the Moscow-based, Putin-run kleptocratic empire post-Soviet Russia became, but in my entirely amateur opinion such collapse/disintegration seems very unlikely in the near future.

2) People in Russia will identify in ways that benefit them. When the Moscow-St Petersburg gang is running a criminal empire for the benefit of ethnic Russians (and focusing on drafting ethnic minorities to send to Ukraine as cannon-fodder) everyone who can is going to identify as Russian. If  andwhen the empire does crumble, and ethnic republics surge, I would expect more people to identify with their non-Russian ethnic heritage.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine hit a base in Crimea 😗
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1779882321291653188

[Storr]

"New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.

The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.

More details here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/"

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1779811520504889477

[Storr]

This sums up my opinion on the WaPo article:

"Imagine being a wartime leader and having Kamala Harris dictating how you should fight your existential war of survival in order to maximise her own re-election chances. Farcical."

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1779897875025047673

[Omega21]

This sums up my opinion on the WaPo article:

"Imagine being a wartime leader and having Kamala Harris dictating how you should fight your existential war of survival in order to maximise her own re-election chances. Farcical."

Yes, however, the current narrative and opinion of many is, that if the Democrats lose the election, POTUS Trump would end aid on day one, at least in regards to aid that he can personally block or stall.

If that is true, then Biden's reelection is as much important to Ukraine, as it is to Biden/Kamala.

*I support neither Biden nor Trump.

[Open Source Intelligence]

This sums up my opinion on the WaPo article:

"Imagine being a wartime leader and having Kamala Harris dictating how you should fight your existential war of survival in order to maximise her own re-election chances. Farcical."

Yes, however, the current narrative and opinion of many is, that if the Democrats lose the election, POTUS Trump would end aid on day one, at least in regards to aid that he can personally block or stall.

If that is true, then Biden's reelection is as much important to Ukraine, as it is to Biden/Kamala.

*I support neither Biden nor Trump.

It does capture perfectly though the horrific effects American politics has at the moment on the real world: American powerbrokers think everything becomes subservient to an election. Should we cut interest rates in 2023 or not? Should there be a ceasefire in Gaza? Should Ukrainians attack Russian energy facilities? These very important global decisions according to some should defer simply to American election timing.

If you're a powerbroker out there in the world, start doing sh*t and saber-rattling in September. You'll get people in the U.S. to cave to your whims pretty quick.

To the actual message, the fact it was Harris delivering this and not say Jake Sullivan or Anthony Blinken tells me they've tried to make this point before to Zelensky and his staff and were ignored, so they went as high up in the administration as they could without it being Biden.

[jaichind]

"New: When Kamala Harris met privately with Volodymyr Zelensky in February, she told him something he didn’t want to hear: Refrain from attacking Russian oil refineries, a tactic U.S. officials believed would raise global energy prices and invite more aggressive Russian retaliation inside Ukraine.

The request irritated Zelensky and his top aides, who view Kyiv’s string of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities as a rare bright spot in a grinding war of attrition. Zelensky brushed off the recommendation, but in subsequent weeks, Washington reinforced the warning in multiple conversations with Kyiv, including by Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Ukraine’s capital in March.

Instead of acquiescing to the U.S. requests, Ukraine doubled down on the strategy, striking a range of Russian facilities, including an April 2 attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery 800 miles from the font.

The incidents have exacerbated tensions in an already-strained relationship and come as Biden ramps up his reelection campaign amid a six-month high in oil prices.

Defenders of Ukraine’s strategy accuse the White House of prioritizing domestic politics over Kyiv’s military goals. U.S. officials say the rationale behind their warnings is more nuanced than critics suggest, noting that Moscow’s counterattack has hurt Ukraine more than the refinery attacks hurt Russia.

More details here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/"

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1779811520504889477

To be fair.  Part of it might be a ROI argument about how to use limited long-range missiles/drones that Ukraine has and how to use them to the most profitable military outcome versus just having the satisfaction of doing limited and repairable damage to Russian energy assets which most likely have a lot of redundancy built in already.