Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[bilaps]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

I don't think that families of those Ukrainians which were so close to returning home would laugh at this moronic attempt of a joke but it's not for me to judge.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/kyiv-puts-pressure-to-tighten-rules-as-eu-mulls-future-of-ukrainian-refugees/

"Ukraine wants EU’s next migration rules to encourage returns"

[jaichind]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/manifestations-en-ukraine/guerre-en-ukraine-l-avion-abattu-qui-transportait-65-prisonniers-ukrainiens-a-ete-touche-par-une-frappe-ukrainienne-selon-une-source-militaire-francaise_6324126.html

"War in Ukraine: downed plane was hit by Ukrainian strike, French military source says"



French military source say that the Il-76 was shot down by the Ukrainian army using an American Patriot air defense system

[CumbrianLefty]

When was that supposed prisoner list actually released?

Because there was one out last night that contained a number of obvious errors.

[BigSkyBob]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Unless, of course, they murdered those prisoners at some point and need to hide that fact. I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely pointing out that you are assuming this cannot be a possibility.

It can't because there are hundreds of ways this could've been done if indeed they killed those prisoners for which there's no shred of evidence. This one would be the most nonsensical thing that has been done since the start of the war. Sometimes the truth is hard and right in front of us.

There is video evidence that Russians have both castrated and murdered POWs. Do you not accept that as fact? The only question is how many prisoners they murdered.

[bilaps]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Unless, of course, they murdered those prisoners at some point and need to hide that fact. I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely pointing out that you are assuming this cannot be a possibility.

It can't because there are hundreds of ways this could've been done if indeed they killed those prisoners for which there's no shred of evidence. This one would be the most nonsensical thing that has been done since the start of the war. Sometimes the truth is hard and right in front of us.

There is video evidence that Russians have both castrated and murdered POWs. Do you not accept that as fact? The only question is how many prisoners they murdered.

No, I do not accept the fact that these prisoners were murdered in Russia, then put on a fake list in a plane that Russia sacrificed so that they could claim Ukraine has killed them. Neither should any sane person. And in regards of video evidence, there is video evidence of Ukraine killing pow-s too, but it's irrelevant for this particular situation.

[BigSkyBob]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Unless, of course, they murdered those prisoners at some point and need to hide that fact. I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely pointing out that you are assuming this cannot be a possibility.

It can't because there are hundreds of ways this could've been done if indeed they killed those prisoners for which there's no shred of evidence. This one would be the most nonsensical thing that has been done since the start of the war. Sometimes the truth is hard and right in front of us.

There is video evidence that Russians have both castrated and murdered POWs. Do you not accept that as fact? The only question is how many prisoners they murdered.

No, I do not accept the fact that these prisoners were murdered in Russia, then put on a fake list in a plane that Russia sacrificed so that they could claim Ukraine has killed them. Neither should any sane person. And in regards of video evidence, there is video evidence of Ukraine killing pow-s too, but it's irrelevant for this particular situation.

Do you accept as fact a video that clearly shows Russian soldiers first castrating and then murdering a Ukrainian soldier? If you do, then, it is a natural to follow up question is to ask how many more Ukrainian soldiers, if any, were murdered in addition to that one soldier?

And, again, you have completely mischaracterized what I have said. I have not claimed it is a fact that the Russians murdered POWs and tried to disguise that fact by faking their deaths at the hand of the Ukrainians. I merely noted it is an explanation that is consistent with the facts so if you want make claims about one explanation being the only possible one you have to disprove this one.

Nor, am I aware of any video evidence that Ukrainian troops having murdered a Russian POW. If you have any by all means post it.

Do you agree with me that the people response for castrating and murdering the Ukrainian POW should be prosecuted and executed for their crimes?

BTW, Bilaps, I asked you a series of questions that an actual employee of the Russian government would have great difficulty answering, but, a regular Joe should have no problem answering whatsoever. You have made it a point not to answer them. Why is that?

[Storr]

Russian list of Ukraine POWs who died in the transport plane that was shot down.  Note that most birthdays of these POWs are from the 1960s 1970s and 1980s with very few in the 1990s.  Fits the narrative that the average age of the Ukraine soldier on the field is now 43.

Assuming this list is accurate, it looks like there are 18 born in the 1990s and 2000s on the list.

Also (in my opinion) the 43 year old average age of Ukrainian soldiers makes sense with the country's terrible demographics situation and the draft age minimum being set at age 27.

[Storr]

"When Russia first recruited prisoners to fight in Ukraine, Putin pardoned them personally and they could go home after 6 months.

Now there's no pardon – and they must stay at the front until the war's over. great story by
@lizafokht @barabanch @oivshina"

"[T]he bulk of the recruited prisoners were united into special companies with the general name “Storm Z”. These units were thrown into the hottest areas of the front; both the fighters themselves and military analysts, speaking about “Storm Z,” often used the expression “cannon fodder.”

From conversations in chats of relatives of Storm Z fighters, we can conclude that recruitment into these special companies has actually stopped since August 2023. And since September, prisoners began to be enrolled in units with a new name - “Storm V”. The BBC has found many messages in groups of relatives of prisoners from families who are trying to find out something about the fate of loved ones recruited from the IK in the last three to four months."

...

"From reports of other Russians whose relatives are fighting in Storm V, it also follows that they will have to remain at the front until the end of the so-called special military operation (as the Russian authorities call the war in Ukraine): prisoners are warned about this even when signing the contract. This is explained by the decree that Vladimir Putin signed in September 2022: it actually prohibits terminating contracts during partial mobilization, even if they end

Now Russian prisoners are fighting under the same conditions as ordinary contract soldiers and, for example, mobilized ones, who will also not be allowed to return home until the end of the war. The fact that previously former prisoners were in a more privileged position and returned after six months outraged many families of the mobilized ."

...

"The chance of survival is about 25%, I’ve been an attack aircraft for 5 months now, and every combat mission is like being born again. Of us from the company (usually the size of a motorized rifle company is about 100 people - BBC ) only 38 people remained alive."'

...

"The Storm V units, like the earlier Storm Z units, are deployed in the most difficult sectors of the front. Before being sent to the front line, yesterday's prisoners are trained at the training ground for no more than 10 days. There are several dozen cases where convicts found themselves on the front lines after 3-5 days of preparation. For comparison: before being sent to Afghanistan, Soviet conscripts were trained for 4-6 months."

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1750516090134781965?s=20

[bilaps]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Unless, of course, they murdered those prisoners at some point and need to hide that fact. I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely pointing out that you are assuming this cannot be a possibility.

It can't because there are hundreds of ways this could've been done if indeed they killed those prisoners for which there's no shred of evidence. This one would be the most nonsensical thing that has been done since the start of the war. Sometimes the truth is hard and right in front of us.

There is video evidence that Russians have both castrated and murdered POWs. Do you not accept that as fact? The only question is how many prisoners they murdered.

No, I do not accept the fact that these prisoners were murdered in Russia, then put on a fake list in a plane that Russia sacrificed so that they could claim Ukraine has killed them. Neither should any sane person. And in regards of video evidence, there is video evidence of Ukraine killing pow-s too, but it's irrelevant for this particular situation.

Do you accept as fact a video that clearly shows Russian soldiers first castrating and then murdering a Ukrainian soldier? If you do, then, it is a natural to follow up question is to ask how many more Ukrainian soldiers, if any, were murdered in addition to that one soldier?

And, again, you have completely mischaracterized what I have said. I have not claimed it is a fact that the Russians murdered POWs and tried to disguise that fact by faking their deaths at the hand of the Ukrainians. I merely noted it is an explanation that is consistent with the facts so if you want make claims about one explanation being the only possible one you have to disprove this one.

Nor, am I aware of any video evidence that Ukrainian troops having murdered a Russian POW. If you have any by all means post it.

Do you agree with me that the people response for castrating and murdering the Ukrainian POW should be prosecuted and executed for their crimes?

BTW, Bilaps, I asked you a series of questions that an actual employee of the Russian government would have great difficulty answering, but, a regular Joe should have no problem answering whatsoever. You have made it a point not to answer them. Why is that?

No, I haven't seen a video of castrating and killing soldier, I don't do that to myself and I don't know why would someone in the right state of mind want to watch those kinds of videos. I'm not denying it's existence though, I just don't have to see it. I'm certainly not going to post here videos of killing surrendering soldiers from neither side, but there are those kind of videos, it's pretty easy to find them if you look it up.

Explanation you offered isn't based on facts, there are no reports of Russians massively murdering prisoners of war, just like there is no reports of Ukrainians doing so and just as there was multiple pow exchanges so far in the war, latest one being on January 3rd if I recall correctly. There are hundreds, probably thousands of POW-s on each side, there really is no incentive for either side to be doing that. They want their people back. If Russia exchanged likes of Aisley, azov battalion commanders, marine brigades commanders from Mariupol why would they kill 70 irrelevant people? Everyone who commits war crimes should be prosecuted, it's really is stupid to answer that question, but I did it anyway.

As for your last question, I didn't take seriously that post you're reffering to. I am in no way obligated to answer people questions on this board if I don't feel like it, it is in my prerogative what will I write. Answering those questions would be beneath me. I could ask you now a series of outrageous questions about you which would be stupid and irrelevant. In my honest opinion discussion threads don't function in that way. I'm debating issues at hand, not people.

[BigSkyBob]

We are unlikely to know the complete truth on this for months to come, let alone years.

Completely agree.

Usually I'm not into conspiracy theories and believe most of them (like on 9/11 or Kennedy) are nonsense, I think it's plausible the Russian themselves crashed the plane to kill Ukrainian prisoners. Since Putin and his cronies have no respect for any life, they didn't hesitate to sacrafice the lives of the few Russians on board.

Why in the 7 hells would they do that? They literally have no single reason to do that, they did multiple pow exchanges so far so without any reason they're going to destroy it's own plane for 70 unsignificant Ukrainian pow-s for what purpose?

What happened is Ukraine made a mistake, there was misscommunication between higher ups and soldiers on the ground, they were probably trigger happy. It happens in a war. And literally GRU from Ukraine basicaly confirmed it indirectly. But hey there is obviously fair number of brainwashed people western puppets who are gonna believe literally everything propaganda serves them.

Unless, of course, they murdered those prisoners at some point and need to hide that fact. I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely pointing out that you are assuming this cannot be a possibility.

It can't because there are hundreds of ways this could've been done if indeed they killed those prisoners for which there's no shred of evidence. This one would be the most nonsensical thing that has been done since the start of the war. Sometimes the truth is hard and right in front of us.

There is video evidence that Russians have both castrated and murdered POWs. Do you not accept that as fact? The only question is how many prisoners they murdered.

No, I do not accept the fact that these prisoners were murdered in Russia, then put on a fake list in a plane that Russia sacrificed so that they could claim Ukraine has killed them. Neither should any sane person. And in regards of video evidence, there is video evidence of Ukraine killing pow-s too, but it's irrelevant for this particular situation.

Do you accept as fact a video that clearly shows Russian soldiers first castrating and then murdering a Ukrainian soldier? If you do, then, it is a natural to follow up question is to ask how many more Ukrainian soldiers, if any, were murdered in addition to that one soldier?

And, again, you have completely mischaracterized what I have said. I have not claimed it is a fact that the Russians murdered POWs and tried to disguise that fact by faking their deaths at the hand of the Ukrainians. I merely noted it is an explanation that is consistent with the facts so if you want make claims about one explanation being the only possible one you have to disprove this one.

Nor, am I aware of any video evidence that Ukrainian troops having murdered a Russian POW. If you have any by all means post it.

Do you agree with me that the people response for castrating and murdering the Ukrainian POW should be prosecuted and executed for their crimes?

BTW, Bilaps, I asked you a series of questions that an actual employee of the Russian government would have great difficulty answering, but, a regular Joe should have no problem answering whatsoever. You have made it a point not to answer them. Why is that?

No, I haven't seen a video of castrating and killing soldier, I don't do that to myself and I don't know why would someone in the right state of mind want to watch those kinds of videos. I'm not denying it's existence though, I just don't have to see it. I'm certainly not going to post here videos of killing surrendering soldiers from neither side, but there are those kind of videos, it's pretty easy to find them if you look it up.

Explanation you offered isn't based on facts, there are no reports of Russians massively murdering prisoners of war, just like there is no reports of Ukrainians doing so and just as there was multiple pow exchanges so far in the war, latest one being on January 3rd if I recall correctly. There are hundreds, probably thousands of POW-s on each side, there really is no incentive for either side to be doing that. They want their people back. If Russia exchanged likes of Aisley, azov battalion commanders, marine brigades commanders from Mariupol why would they kill 70 irrelevant people? Everyone who commits war crimes should be prosecuted, it's really is stupid to answer that question, but I did it anyway.

As for your last question, I didn't take seriously that post you're reffering to. I am in no way obligated to answer people questions on this board if I don't feel like it, it is in my prerogative what will I write. Answering those questions would be beneath me. I could ask you now a series of outrageous questions about you which would be stupid and irrelevant. In my honest opinion discussion threads don't function in that way. I'm debating issues at hand, not people.

This is precisely the answer that an employee of the Russian government sitting at a terminal in Moscow or St Petersburg would be instructed to answer the question by their supervisors. I, again, will point out to you that if people believe that you are an employee of the Russian government being paid to post here they will automatically discount any argument, or anything you have to say. If you are really just some regular Joe who wants to, as you put it, "debate the issues at hand," it would behoove you to not allow yourself to be tarred with brush of people who have on the beheast of the Russian government, accepted payment to do things like threaten nuclear war including threats to use nukes to create a tsunami that drowned all the residents of London. If you are really here to "debate the issues at hand," and not childishly threaten to murder millions of Londoners it would behoove you to disassociate yourself with such people.

Unless you can't.

[bilaps]

All i have to say to this is Jesus Christ.

[Hindsight was 2020]

🍿

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-senior-russian-officials-were-supposed-to-be-on-il-76-flight/

"Military intelligence: Senior Russian officials were supposed to be on Il-76 flight but did not board"



Slowly but surely the story is coming out on the Ukraine side on what took place and why.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Assuming this list is accurate, it looks like there are 18 born in the 1990s and 2000s on the list.

Also (in my opinion) the 43 year old average age of Ukrainian soldiers makes sense with the country's terrible demographics situation and the draft age minimum being set at age 27.

I concur.

[Virginiá]

Not new pledges, but what they are planning to deliver in 2024:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1750639998347497829

[Angel of Death]

*Hears about the downed plane*

HAHA WE DOWNED IT

*Hears about the dead Ukrainian POWs*

IT WAS RUSSIA

This is quite the ironic post given a certain incident that happened in 2014.

[Storr]

"Wrote about the current state of the war with @KofmanMichael and @MassDara
Ukraine likely will not have the resources for a strategic-level offensive in 2024, but could set the conditions for one in 2025 if critical decisions are made now."

The final section (bolding for emphasis added by myself):

"The War Is Far From Over

While a cursory look at material resources shows the war favors Russia this year, this does not automatically mean Russia will make major advances this year or that it is now slated to win the war. Moscow’s minimal war aims require it to seize more territory than it currently occupies, to capture the Donbas, and to lay claim to a host of territories it annexed but does not control. Russian forces cannot simply sit and defend to achieve these goals, and, as recent offensives illustrate, they too are struggling to break out of the current deadlock. Despite increased recruitment, Moscow still lacks sufficient manpower to rotate the personnel that were initially mobilized in 2022, which means it still faces a dilemma on how to sustain force presence in Ukraine. In 2023, the Russian military prioritized replacing losses and generating new combat formations over sustainability of deployments and their force posture in Ukraine. Hence, these remain issues they will have to resolve in 2024. Offensives like in Avdiivka take a heavy toll on equipment, costing hundreds in armored fighting vehicles. Despite high levels of spending on defense production, the Russian military is still replacing much of its lost kit by drawing on a finite pool of Soviet equipment. Russia’s ammunition situation is improving, especially due to supplies from North Korea and Iran, but it is still far from the advantage Russian forces held in 2022.

The West is advantaged in terms of technological innovation and financial resources, but much depends on political will. For example, although Europe missed its goal of 1 million shells this year, it has put $2.2 billion toward production and might well meet it by 2025. Western sluggishness is not the same as inaction, with some efforts gaining momentum. Yet despite the ability to out-innovate and out-produce Russia, it is Moscow that has leapt ahead in scaling production of drones and mobilizing its defense industrial base. Russian leadership is now visibly overconfident. They see the current trendline in this war as favoring them. Hence, the next year will prove important in demonstrating that even at the peak of its defense spending, and defense-industrial output, Russia is still unable to achieve its objectives in this war. Meanwhile, the costs will mount, and, ideally, it is Moscow that will face growing uncertainty in 2025.

Failure does not mean the war will resolve itself into a frozen conflict. Ukraine may begin losing the war this year, as Russian advantages multiply into 2025 and 2026. In 2024, the West faces a critical choice. Otherwise, as our colleague Jack Watling recently argued, the West will cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia in this war. A defeat would see Moscow impose its will on Ukraine and walk away from the war believing that it had effectively exhausted and defeated the West. Despite the strategic cost to Russia, Ukraine would lose territory and would bear a higher burden for the war in population and economic losses. While Russia will pose an enduring military threat to European security in either scenario, a Russia that suffers a costly defeat is clearly preferable to an emboldened Moscow that is able to recover without having to worry about Ukraine’s armed forces.

This is a sobering reality, but this outcome is not inevitable. However, it will take hard political choices to bring this situation about both in Ukraine and in the West. Key decisions have to be made this year, the earlier the better, in order to put the war on a more positive trajectory. To succeed, Ukraine and the West must align expectations and articulate a clear vision for the next 18 months: what we are building toward, how, and what the theory of success is moving forward. Without a long-term strategy, it will be difficult to achieve unity of effort and manage scarce resources. If in 2024 Ukraine is able to exhaust Russian forces at the peak of Russian defense spending, then retake the initiative and inflict a series of defeats on the Russian military in 2025, it could establish the necessary leverage over Moscow in this war. This would require putting Russia’s military position in jeopardy, replacing Russian confidence with uncertainty. The goal is war termination, on favorable terms for Ukraine, and in a manner that ensures a durable peace or the Ukrainian ability to secure it down the line. A defeat would see Ukraine irrevocably lose territory, with Russia able to impose the peace on its own terms in a manner that would limit Ukraine’s sovereignty. Attaining the necessary advantage to achieve this is feasible by 2025. Much depends on sustained Western support and choices made now."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1750902274233094532?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

Kofman has been beating this drum pretty consistently (if the West gets its act together behind Ukraine this year allowing them to hold off Russia then 2025 onward would be on Ukraine’s side). He just tends to doubt the West will and I don’t blame him (though not a doomer myself). Good example of things that need to happen is the EU purposely for joint aid production and supply to Ukraine across the entire EU over individual nations doing it or France’s idea of developing AI for artillery that will increase shell accuracy so Ukraine can counter Russia shell advantage by doing equal damage with less shells. But these are ideas that are 2025 onward which is why US aid passing for this year is vital and why I despise Johnson and the GOP house with the burning passion of a thousand suns

[jaichind]

It would be useful to find out if it was the Patriot system that brought down the Il-76.  Because if it was a Patriot system then I am leaning toward Ukraine shooting down the  Il-76 on purpose even if Ukraine POWs were on it.  The basic idea is that the Patriot system range is fairly narrow and usually Ukraine keeps them in large urban centers like Kiev.  To put them so close to the front, and putting them at great risk, must mean they where there for a mission.  In which case the shoot down of the  Il-76  is more on purpose.  The motivation for this is more about the high cost to produce  Il-76  but even greater cost to train a pilot for  Il-76.  There are not a lot of qualified  Il-76 pilots in Russia so the death of the  Il-76 pilot is a significant loss for Russia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kofman has been beating this drum pretty consistently (if the West gets its act together behind Ukraine this year allowing them to hold off Russia then 2025 onward would be on Ukraine’s side). He just tends to doubt the West will and I don’t blame him (though not a doomer myself). Good example of things that need to happen is the EU purposely for joint aid production and supply to Ukraine across the entire EU over individual nations doing it or France’s idea of developing AI for artillery that will increase shell accuracy so Ukraine can counter Russia shell advantage by doing equal damage with less shells. But these are ideas that are 2025 onward which is why US aid passing for this year is vital and why I despise Johnson and the GOP house with the burning passion of a thousand suns

The imperial core's refusal to act cohesively is harming groups reliant on its protection far from it geographically.
Trump is putting career over party and country.
And he has many willing accomplices.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It would be useful to find out if it was the Patriot system that brought down the Il-76.  Because if it was a Patriot system then I am leaning toward Ukraine shooting down the  Il-76 on purpose even if Ukraine POWs were on it.  The basic idea is that the Patriot system range is fairly narrow and usually Ukraine keeps them in large urban centers like Kiev.  To put them so close to the front, and putting them at great risk, must mean they where there for a mission.  In which case the shoot down of the  Il-76  is more on purpose.  The motivation for this is more about the high cost to produce  Il-76  but even greater cost to train a pilot for  Il-76.  There are not a lot of qualified  Il-76 pilots in Russia so the death of the  Il-76 pilot is a significant loss for Russia.

This isn’t a particularly useful theory, even if a Patriot did down the Il-76.

Il-76s don’t grow on trees, but if the variant shot down was a standard transport variant, then Russia has a fair amount of ex-Soviet surplus to replace it (because it was also a “mass-produced” civilian plane). Russia also has a larger number of people who can fly transport planes than, say, fighter jets. Both sides survived losing lots of those - losing an Il-76 and its pilot isn’t hugely significant anymore.

It’s claimed that Patriot missiles have been used in (confirmed) downing of fighter jets. The targeting of those, and specialised planes like the A-50, is almost certainly going to be prioritised over the targeting of cargo planes, unless those cargo planes are assumed to be carrying a dangerous cargo.

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4431375-speaker-johnson-senate-border-deal-dead-on-arrival-in-house/

"Speaker Johnson: Senate border deal ‘dead on arrival’ in House"

This is the deal that includes Ukraine aid.  Of course with Trump coming out against it will be hard to pass this in the House unless Biden/Dems make considerable concessions which I doubt will happen. And the current conflict between TX and the federal government will not put the House GOP in a compromising mood.  Of course, never say never when so much money is at stake for those USA arms manufacturers.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4431375-speaker-johnson-senate-border-deal-dead-on-arrival-in-house/

"Speaker Johnson: Senate border deal ‘dead on arrival’ in House"

This is the deal that includes Ukraine aid.  Of course with Trump coming out against it will be hard to pass this in the House unless Biden/Dems make considerable concessions which I doubt will happen. And the current conflict between TX and the federal government will not put the House GOP in a compromising mood.  Of course, never say never when so much money is at stake for those USA arms manufacturers.

It’s seriously amazing how many times you make this snarky corruption digs at Ukraine and it’s western allies when you’ve openly called Putin (the man who runs one of if not the most corrupt governments in the world) you’re favorite world leader

[jaichind]

https://pravda-en.com/usa/2024/01/26/284928.html

"Putin: the means of destruction from the Il-76 crash site point to the air defense of France or the United States"

Putin says the air defense system that destroyed the Il-76 is French or American and that Russia will figure it out exactly in a few days.