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[political realignment.]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

Elections with incumbents aren’t realignments. 2016, 2008, and 2000 were realignments. 2020, 2012, and 2004 were not. If you look at trend maps for the former 3, you see stronger regional and statewide shifts than in the latter 3.

So I take it that 1980 wasn't a realignment, right?

For the record I'm not even predicting Biden will lose here, just what pundits will likely be saying after the results of this election.  People going into 2016 would have laughed at anybody who predicted that election would be a realignment, same thing with 2008.  The term "realignment" is a joke and is as overused by pundits in much the same way the term "progressive" is.  And in any case, you say you need "stronger regional and statewide shifts" but you don't even define what is the benchmark for that.

Thanks for taking the bait though.

Can I ask you a Question @iceman,
How is the Immigration Issue playing down there in South Florida? We know that Bidens Controversial DHS Program dumped some 360,000 undocumented immigrants into Miami and another 100,000 or so elsewhere in FL without consulting the FL Govtm. and these folks running the inmate asylum over there. We know AG Moody & Governor DeSantis have gone to War with Biden over this trying to stop it.

Have they proven to be successful?

In my observation, it is not big of an issue at all here in Palm Beach county. I’m not sure about Miami-Dade. But there was a time when people are a bit wary of the crisis in Haiti and the possible influx of refugees in South Florida. Some Haitians I know is not keen with Illegal immigration as well but they are among the most Democratic subgroup of African-Americans and they turn out in the polls too. What makes this county probably become less blue in November are the hispanics (Cubans, Salvadorans, Puerto Ricans) plus in the influx of Snowbirds who will most likely vote here in November, most snowbirds I know absolutely detest Biden and his policies.

Does this include Proud Boys/3 Percenters/Oath Keepers/Whatever-the-domestic-Nazis-are-calling-themselves-these-days marches?

I ask b/c it honestly wouldn't surprise me if NC Republicans wrote in an exception to the law for their most loyal voters - cowards who wear masks and carry tiki torches while chanting "Jews will not replace us."

Or did they just stop at virtue signaling against efforts to stop the spread of infectious diseases?

Three Senate Democrats proposed amendments to keep the health exemption and exclude hate groups from masking, but Senate Republicans used a procedural mechanism to block them without going up for a vote.

It doesn't explicitly make an exception, but I find it troublesome that the Republicans moved to block the vote on those amendments.

Now is a time when we really could do with a strong and credible Irish Labour party. Which just makes what has actually happened there all the more tragic.

That ship arguably already sailed in 2011, but Dublin Bay South was a disaster disguised as a triumph. Bacik, who has spent her entire adult life ensconced in the bubble that is Trinity, has absolutely no idea how to connect with voters beyond Portobello and Ranelagh or even with her own councillor base.

Are there any working class/kitchen table issue focused politicians left in the party? From the outside they seem to basically be a scattering of de facto independents and the woke middle class who are too establishment/power hungry to vote Social Democrat (and at a guess presumably arrived in politics at the wrong time to join the Greens).

Most likely, since he'll be even more unhinged and insane than before. Probably after the Democrats have retaken the House in 2026.

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

I would argue that other than messy polls, barely any fundamentals back up that Trump is indeed winning. Presidents usually get reelected unless they completely screwed up and/or presided over an economic recession. The polls overall show a close race most of the time, but are overall inconsistent and were off in both directions over the last few cycles. Even the higher quality polls usually don't mean so much as they're snapshots in time and can change either way.

Overall you still might consider Pennsylvania as a tossup (and tilt means Trump would at least have a 40-49% chance to win). Then I would move both this one and North Carolina as tossup.

A consumer sentiment of 67.4 is generally losing.

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

I would argue that other than messy polls, barely any fundamentals back up that Trump is indeed winning. Presidents usually get reelected unless they completely screwed up and/or presided over an economic recession. The polls overall show a close race most of the time, but are overall inconsistent and were off in both directions over the last few cycles. Even the higher quality polls usually don't mean so much as they're snapshots in time and can change either way.

Overall you still might consider Pennsylvania as a tossup (and tilt means Trump would at least have a 40-49% chance to win). Then I would move both this one and North Carolina as tossup.

Biden should not have ran again.

Should I even give my response in this thread?

What's the worse thing that could happen?

You could get banned?

W/I: Trump’s brand of politics is toxic. And even if people may not like Biden they certainly don’t want to go back to Trump.

I just hope this is correct.