What will be the biggest takeaway after election night 2024?

[EJ24]

?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

W/I: Trump’s brand of politics is toxic. And even if people may not like Biden they certainly don’t want to go back to Trump.

[iceman]

Polls were dead wrong again. Especially in the rustbelt as Trump cruises to an easy win, winning Minnesota for the GOP first time in 52 years.

[Persephone]

A combination of two things. First, the polls being unexpectedly accurate - as most Democrats and even the WH seems to be banking on them grossly underestimating Democrats as never before. Second, Biden being uniquely unpopular, losing to Trump by a large margin in swing states even as downballot Democrats are re-elected. The second might be complicated by reverse coattails from the President, though.

[Mr. Smith]

Opt. 1, whoever wins will be at the benefit of underestimation. Full stop.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have doubts now that Biden wins but there aren't any Harris hacks around here like there were in 20.  Lol we just don't know whom is gonna wins,.but if Trump wins Harris will be the fall guy

That being the OUTPARTY no matter if Trump is an indicted criminal is a benefit because Trump supposed to be blown out. Indictments didn't help Ds no matter what results will be, indictments aren't cracked up to what it was supposed to be

[Steve from Lambeth]

My pizza. I got one when the 2022 results were coming in and I didn't finish it for days!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

2, 5, 6, 9. Also geographical depolarization.

[Mechavada]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

Elections with incumbents aren’t realignments. 2016, 2008, and 2000 were realignments. 2020, 2012, and 2004 were not. If you look at trend maps for the former 3, you see stronger regional and statewide shifts than in the latter 3.

[Agonized-Statism]

People will come to their own conclusions to fit their narratives, and Biden certainly faces myriad headwinds (one big looming crisis that comes to mind: we're looking at a nasty summer for hurricanes and floods with these sea surface temperatures), but a more detached historical perspective would eventually determine that the cost of living crisis and its tone deaf response were the biggest factors in sinking Biden.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

People will come to their own conclusions to fit their narratives, and Biden certainly faces myriad headwinds (one big looming crisis that comes to mind: we're looking at a nasty summer for hurricanes and floods with these sea surface temperatures), but a more detached historical perspective would eventually determine that the cost of living crisis and its tone deaf response were the biggest factors in sinking Biden.

Hurricanes could help the incumbent if they respond to the crisis well (ie Obama), though likely gas prices are also going to go up due to hurricanes knocking out refineries.

[Agonized-Statism]

People will come to their own conclusions to fit their narratives, and Biden certainly faces myriad headwinds (one big looming crisis that comes to mind: we're looking at a nasty summer for hurricanes and floods with these sea surface temperatures), but a more detached historical perspective would eventually determine that the cost of living crisis and its tone deaf response were the biggest factors in sinking Biden.

Hurricanes could help the incumbent if they respond to the crisis well (ie Obama), though likely gas prices are also going to go up due to hurricanes knocking out refineries.

Being at knife's edge in the Middle East doesn't bode well for the next six months either. An Iranian oil shock would start a financial contagion in European markets that we wouldn't be safe from. Things are very precarious right now. Hoping for the best because things are already bad enough, but the "everything is fine" gaslighting doesn't inspire confidence.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see anything different that Trump does to restore the economy. The unemployment rate is going up, I have neighbors and roommates that don't want to work, but I have an income

[cherry mandarin]

I think a mix of #2 and #9. #1 might happen, or it might not. #6 and #7 can both be true at the same time.

Elections with incumbents aren’t realignments. 2016, 2008, and 2000 were realignments. 2020, 2012, and 2004 were not. If you look at trend maps for the former 3, you see stronger regional and statewide shifts than in the latter 3.

2024 will be an exception to this rule, despite the fact that we have not just one but essentially two quasi-incumbents running.

[Liberalrocks]

A substantial shy Biden vote not picked up in the polls gives him a second term. His win will be viewed as an upset due to economic unhappiness and his low approval. Trumps toxicity to suburban voters puts Biden over the top. This will be the first election where an incumbent with a dismally low approval rating defies the polling and odds to win another term due to this opponents unique flaws.

[President Johnson]

W/I: Trump’s brand of politics is toxic. And even if people may not like Biden they certainly don’t want to go back to Trump.

I just hope this is correct.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden should not have ran again.

[Mechavada]

"Folks, we're having another political realignment."

Elections with incumbents aren’t realignments. 2016, 2008, and 2000 were realignments. 2020, 2012, and 2004 were not. If you look at trend maps for the former 3, you see stronger regional and statewide shifts than in the latter 3.

So I take it that 1980 wasn't a realignment, right?

For the record I'm not even predicting Biden will lose here, just what pundits will likely be saying after the results of this election.  People going into 2016 would have laughed at anybody who predicted that election would be a realignment, same thing with 2008.  The term "realignment" is a joke and is as overused by pundits in much the same way the term "progressive" is.  And in any case, you say you need "stronger regional and statewide shifts" but you don't even define what is the benchmark for that.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_realignment#Political_realignment_in_United_States_history

The last election that historians have consensus on being a "realignment" was 1932.  The GOP has been doing libertarian economics and social reactionary politics increasing support among former Dixiecrats since 1980.  The Democrats have been Neo liberal economic moderates increasing support among higher educated upper and upper middle class supporters since 1992.  The so-called "realignments" we have every eight years now are merely trends getting stronger in each direction.

Thanks for taking the bait though.

[SnowLabrador]

If Biden didn't run for reelection, it would have been a blue wave.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either Americans are just plain tired of Trump, if he loses, and Biden is acceptable enough.

Or, charisma and luck is all that matters for a Democratic incumbent if Biden loses.

[dspNY]

I’ll say black voters going to Trump is way overhyped. Biden’s problem is turnout, not losing a large % of black voters to Trump. The rest are too early to say yet

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Something else:

Netanyahu threw the election to Trump

and/or

Democrats should never condone genocide ever again anymore and take working class people / students / minority voters for granted.

[Devils30]

If Biden wins:

Polling was a mess, his win is fueled by a Georgia victory of around 50,000 votes despite talk of a 6% Trump blowout. Trends prevailed and Biden's map had an almost 1 to 1 correlation with Warnock's 2022 regular election numbers. In MI, PA- Biden's numbers around Grand Rapids, Harrisburg gave him a cushion that offset any leftist defections around Philly, Detroit. Trump turnout fell among WWC, dealing a fatal blow in the midwest.

If Trump wins:

-Biden overreliant on the midwest and polls are accurate with a 1-2% Trump win. Biden believes the polls and triages GA only to come within 8,000 votes when all is said and done.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If Biden wins:

Polling was a mess, his win is fueled by a Georgia victory of around 50,000 votes despite talk of a 6% Trump blowout. Trends prevailed and Biden's map had an almost 1 to 1 correlation with Warnock's 2022 regular election numbers. In MI, PA- Biden's numbers around Grand Rapids, Harrisburg gave him a cushion that offset any leftist defections around Philly, Detroit. Trump turnout fell among WWC, dealing a fatal blow in the midwest.

If Trump wins:

-Biden overreliant on the midwest and polls are accurate with a 1-2% Trump win. Biden believes the polls and triages GA only to come within 8,000 votes when all is said and done.

The one poll of Harrisburg had Trump up by 7, Perry up by 2 in PA10, improving from Trump +4. I think if Biden makes gains anywhere, it will be due to WWC turnout falling off.