2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Scottholes 2.0]

Not to turn this thread into a re-litigation of the polls, but I think a big part of it is that it's harder to reach people these days and get a representative sample.

Republicans vote on white identity politics, and will never express this sentiment to a stranger over the phone.

Yup!

[rosin]

So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

He's 25,000 votes behind Trump in MI, but Detroit is being sluggish.

According to DDHQ, Trump's lead in MI is down to 9.5k

[Scottholes 2.0]

WI is headed for recount territory. A winner may not be declared anytime soon.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Last update before I go to bed.

• WI is 97% done with Biden hitting the lead just at the right time to take the state.
• MI is 86% done and Biden has been coming home unbelievably strong.

Wayne County and Isabella at only ‘60% votes counted’ have almost guaranteed Biden a win in Michigan.

WI - Biden up by 20,700 (97% counted)

Of the remaining ~102,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 41,000 of them. (39.9%)

MI - Biden down by 27,500 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~795,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 411,000 of them. (51.7%)

GA - Biden down by 103,000 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~411,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 257,000 of them. (62.6%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 618,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,797,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,208,000 of them. (67.2%)

Biden needs to win 2 (WI, MI) of the above 5 states above and win NV to win the Presidency.

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden and team were smart to come out and speak last night and to speak first.  Unlike Gore or Hillary (who didn't appear), Biden's personal appearance keeps the supporters upbeat and fired up.  

And more important, it puts Trump on the defensive.  There were fewer viewers to see his message about voter fraud (I was asleep--didn't watch it), and it has been beaten up in the press.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1323978277862735873

[Inmate Trump]

One thing that needs to change going forward:

The country as a whole needs to get a lot better at counting votes.  I know it's a lot of work, and I also understand there's more to it than I realize, but there should be no instance where states stall out at 80% reported for hours or days, or God forbid weeks.

[ObamaMichael]

WI is headed for recount territory. A winner may not be declared anytime soon.

Why would 25K+ votes be considered recount territory?

[wbrocks67]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

That's the thing - not sure. It doesn't appear if anyone knows if the 1.4 million total *right now* includes anything from the dropboxes, or anything that might show up in the next 3 days...

[wbrocks67]

One thing that needs to change going forward:

The country as a whole needs to get a lot better at counting votes.  I know it's a lot of work, and I also understand there's more to it than I realize, but there should be no instance where states stall out at 80% reported for hours or days, or God forbid weeks.

Yep.

[JohnCA246]

I'm starting to think polls just got lucky in 2018 in that it was a midterm, gerrymandering was weaker at the end of a decade sue to demographic shifts, and things went how they usually do during midterms rather than any state specific issues.

I'm also wondering if there is much point in phone-banking due to the same issues of being hard to reach people. I mean, it is better than not doing anything....and I think canvassing is good....but a phone bank might not be as good as a caravan or something that says....look at all this good ol grassroots support we got!

[xavier110]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

[DrScholl]

What we are seeing is a new map all together and polling hasn't caught up to that. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are new states in the sense that the Democratic path to winning them is different now. Arizona is now in the fold too and possibly Georgia.

[European Lefty]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Miami Dade Biden won it by 7 v 30 for Hillary that's why Trump wins FL

[Alben Barkley]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

He is and has been for hours now.

[Inmate Trump]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

Which is probably why Trump is trying to stop the counting.

[Scottholes 2.0]

WI is headed for recount territory. A winner may not be declared anytime soon.

Why would 25K+ votes be considered recount territory?

Because of WI state law. A candidate can request a recount only if they lost by 1 percentage point or less in an election with at least 4,000 votes total.

[JohnCA246]

As bad as polls were this year....would Biden invested anything GA if it weren't for polls. I mean we could guess on past results that it would be close....but without polls I could hear the argument....no way GA goes to the left of FL or NC....stop wasting your time focus on 270.

[Horus]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

If all votes are counted he will win.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

[WMS]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

Which is probably why Trump is trying to stop the counting.

Trump: "Stop the counting. I've won already, don't wanna lose now!"

[Alben Barkley]

As bad as polls were this year....would Biden invested anything GA if it weren't for polls. I mean we could guess on past results that it would be close....but without polls I could hear the argument....no way GA goes to the left of FL or NC....stop wasting your time focus on 270.

GA polls seemed to be pretty much the only ones that were accurate. Well and AZ maybe.

[Skye]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

How about we stop promoting baseless conspiracy theories.