2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

FYI - Wayne County would still only be 54% reporting after this update.

Yeah, MI is looking quite good now.

[Alben Barkley]

Morning y’all. Based on what I’ve gathered these past 5 minutes on Twitter and here it seems while it will take a while all the remaining states NV/MI/WIS/PENN/GE should be going for Biden just based on what’s left outstanding?

I’d say he’s at least narrowly favored in all of them, yes. And definitely favored to win enough to get past 270.

[Alben Barkley]

Do people here really expect Trump to win NV? Seems pretty unlikely.

It would depend on the late mail-in vote being WAY more red, and much/most of it is in Clark. So yeah, pretty unlikely.

[Alben Barkley]

No more results from NV until 11am EST Thursday.

I really hope Biden wins GA so we don’t have to depend on it.

[Alben Barkley]

For the second time in a row, Georgia is like the only state that actually is turning out about how the polls showed.

Why is this???

[Alben Barkley]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

[Alben Barkley]

Please an update for PA !

Looking pretty good:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/biden-pennsylvania-election-ballots.html

[Alben Barkley]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

Oh are you his alt? Not surprising.

The Senate was never as safe a bet as the presidency either BTW and for reasons already explained, was not as important. You can cry about the Senate if you want. I’m gonna be happy the worst president in history will be ejected, likely by ironically the same EV margin he won by in 2016. (Not that narrow, especially since Biden will actually win the popular vote by a decent margin). I’m also gonna make fun of people for calling me things like “hack” when they got all smug and insufferable earlier about their terrible predictions that are now falling apart.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

And what would his challenge be?

“All mail-in votes are fraud and we must stop counting them!”

Yeah, good luck with that one.

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

[Alben Barkley]

If this goes on for days, as it’s looking to, expect the Supreme Court to be involved eventually.

Trump isn’t going to make this easy.  Even if it looks like we’re there, Trump will challenge it and the Supreme Court may decide in his favor.

My thoughts as well.

Biden needed a court proof victory, in other words he had to lock up FL or NC early on. That hasn't happened so Trump has a path until the EC votes.

Ah so this is the next stage of doomerism then.

Trump using the courts to win has been my position all along.

But nobody's explained just how the hell that would happen. Especially after recent SCOTUS rulings very strongly suggesting otherwise.

[Alben Barkley]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

Really? Ohio and Iowa barely budged.

We saw suburban shifts there too, in places like Delaware County. Just seems to have largely been canceled out.

[Alben Barkley]

Roy Cooper has now won North Carolina twice as Trump (likely) wins it, this time while we lose a Senate race too.

I think he’s a good option for 2024. Southerner with purple state appeal and strong executive experience.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/USPoliticsPoll/status/1323968289878495235?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Just to help me understand: Biden leads WI and NV with almost exclusively postal votes to count. He's narrowly behind in MI and close enough in GA and PA, also with mostly postal votes outstanding. Surely he's favourite to win this from here?

He is and has been for hours now.

[Alben Barkley]

As bad as polls were this year....would Biden invested anything GA if it weren't for polls. I mean we could guess on past results that it would be close....but without polls I could hear the argument....no way GA goes to the left of FL or NC....stop wasting your time focus on 270.

GA polls seemed to be pretty much the only ones that were accurate. Well and AZ maybe.

[Alben Barkley]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Yeah but I don’t wanna win with exactly 270. Increases the odds of instability after the election. More breathing room with a 300+ lead and a win in Georgia would be better.

[Alben Barkley]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

[Alben Barkley]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

Not only that, he very specifically said it would be through MI even though Biden flips WI and PA but nothing else. Looks like a 0% chance that happens.

It’s actually unbelievable how smug and audacious he’s continuing to be after proving to be so horribly wrong about something he was SO confident of for SO long. Guess the concept of “shame” is foreign to him.

[Alben Barkley]

I'll give credit where credit is due. The doomers were, by and large, right. Predicting a narrow Trump win is in fact closer to the actual result than the 413 map (which was what my prediction was in the ballpark of).

That still doesn't magically make the lion's share of their contributions to this forum worthwhile or not insufferable to read.

I think a lot of the "insufferableness" of doomer's contributions was due to having their opinions and warnings continually shot down and dismissed as bogus.  The back and forth that often ensued made the conversations difficult to read.

To also be fair, well over 90% of Doom or postings had no explanation for their argument. In fairness to the rest of us, the polls did show a comfortable Biden lead in most of these states, and that's had good quantifiable reason to be optimistic. Very very few Doomer posts went further than "becawz reasonzs" in explaining why almost all the polls were going to be wrong.

Wrong.  I continually warned that the polls could be off again; the polls being wrong in 2016 was all the explanation any of us doomers needed and most of us said so.  We still had 2016 fresh in our memories.  Most of you all forgot 2016 and decided to trust the polls that were so wrong the last time.

The 2016 polls were not off nearly this bad. This is completely unprecedented, and we’ll still win. So even with perhaps the biggest f—k-up in polling history, wasn’t enough to erase Biden’s lead.

[Alben Barkley]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Brain cells. It’s been the most predictable of the none safe states since ... November of 2016. But alas

Why are you so hung up on this? Either way Georgia will be ridiculously slim. There was no actual REASON to think it was impossible after the left trends in 2016 and 2018. You just keep saying that for absolutely no reason. What a bizarre hill to die on, especially for someone who apparently lives nowhere near Georgia you seem awfully emotional about it.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/Data_Orbital/status/1324045286537273346?s=19

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1324041497143058432


Though, who are these Data Orbital exactly? FWIW, they a A/B with D+0.3 bias according to 538. No GOP affiliation at the first glance.

Data_Orbital is making a big assumption in thinking "late early votes" will be better for Trump. Sinema won late earlies in 2018 and I'm not sure why a Trump voter would go out of their way to hand in a late ballot when they could just vote in person.

Also even if they do favor Trump they would have to favor him BIG to make up his current deficit. Not happening.

[Alben Barkley]

Should we be worried about NV? What’s going on there?

AZ seems more concerning than NV at this point, the remaining vote sounds very Trump favorable.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324070507168358402 No it may  not have to be, there may be 500k still to be counted according to some reports.
Think about it Biden at +4.5/5 nationally has Arizona basically at a tie

It would have to be overwhelmingly R though to turn Biden's 100K lead though

BUT IT WILL BE

Once again, hysterical proclamations without evidence or reason to back them up.