2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Del Tachi]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

As a Falcons fan this pains me, but it's funny:

https://twitter.com/digiphile/status/1324011698827776000

[Panda Express]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090?s=19

If this is correct my god

Awful, yet expected.

[Bootes Void]

How will Pa go?

[Bojack Horseman]

Michigan is gone for Trump. PA and GA are the ones to watch now

Wayne County new batch

Biden 41372
Trump 20570

Still reasonable amount of vote remaining.

James is only up 13,000 now. Looks like Peters will hang on after all.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Yeah, NYT just snapped AZ back from >98% of the vote in to 86%.  Biden still leads by six in Maricopa, though.  

[wbrocks67]

Don't want to panic, but new vote dump in PA, from 76% to 78% in, Biden not really closing the gap. Still down by about half a million. Holy moly, if this is 270-268.

There is 320K still out from Allegheny and Philly alone.

[wbrocks67]

Concerned about AZ at 86% of vote and only 93000 vote lead for Biden.  Same day vote--and where is the remaining vote coming from?

Isn't it all mail in vote that came in?

[Middle-aged Europe]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

[wbrocks67]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

[GALeftist]

But...but moderate heroes!

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1323855987338563585
Let this be the death of third-way DLC politics.

LOL You think a further left candidate would have done better? Eastmann got obliterated in NE-2, which Biden carried comfortably.

Nation =/= Omaha

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Yeah, NYT just snapped AZ back from >98% of the vote in to 86%.  Biden still leads by six in Maricopa, though.  

Are mail-in or in-person votes left?

[MillennialModerate]

It seems to me Arizona, NV, WI and MI are all still up for grabs.

I feel like talk on here is premature and is the same kind of talk that made “doomers” feel like idiots.

Doomers were right to doom.  Look at the race.

Oh I know that. I was one of them and despite being wrong about almost everything I say on here other than a Nevada Senate race ....  i relentlessly got mocked. And I’m still being mocked about Georgia as people in here dillude themselves into thinking Biden is going to win Georgia

[Astatine]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

Currently, 191 seats have been called for Dems.

Seats that will likely go Democratic or where Democrats have the edge as of now:

- 3 seats in CT
- ME-02
- GA-07
- WI-03
- MN-02
- IA-03
- WA-08
- MI-08 and MI-05
- UT-04
- NV-04 and NV-03
- CA-49
- AZ-01
- VA-02

That would put Democrats at ... 207

Additionally...
- CA-29 and CA-34 (not sure whether they're counted as Democratic already?) with only Dems in the runoff

Other seem much closer (but not sure which votes are yet to be counted tho).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The minimum wage initiative has passed in Florida - cleared the 60% threshold.

Time for a purge of the FDP.

How do you think this changes things in the future?

Being a bit of a doomer, I don't think it changes much. Democratic party officials don't want to learn the lessons, so they'll convince the primary electorate to follow suit. The party still decides and it decides poorly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

Yes, Bourdeaux has declared victory although McCormick has not conceded.  Since she's at 51.15% with all of Forsyth County in (the more R part of the district) she's got it.

(btw, Forsyth wound up going 67-31 Trump, down from 71-24 in 2016 and not too far off my prediction of 65-35).

[Panda Express]

Biden is expected to address the American people at some point today, his campaign manager, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, tells reporters.

Victory speech incoming?

[xavier110]

Yeah, NYT just snapped AZ back from >98% of the vote in to 86%.  Biden still leads by six in Maricopa, though.  

Are mail-in or in-person votes left?

In Maricopa, it's late mail ballots & provisionals. They reported all the ED vote last night, so the most favorable Trump votes in Maricopa County are in. Don't know about rest of state though. We should hit closer to 3 million votes so we have a few hundred thousand ballots outstanding

[forsythvoter]

Is that the first time in recent history Forsyth has given a D more than 30% for president?

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

Yes, Bourdeaux has declared victory although McCormick has not conceded.  Since she's at 51.15% with all of Forsyth County in (the more R part of the district) she's got it.

(btw, Forsyth wound up going 67-31 Trump, down from 71-24 in 2016 and not too far off my prediction of 65-35).

[GALeftist]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

Yes, Bourdeaux has declared victory although McCormick has not conceded.  Since she's at 51.15% with all of Forsyth County in (the more R part of the district) she's got it.

(btw, Forsyth wound up going 67-31 Trump, down from 71-24 in 2016 and not too far off my prediction of 65-35).

I guess Georgia is a sort of consolation prize for Democrats. It seems pretty clear that this is a new swing state.

[European Lefty]

But...but moderate heroes!

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1323855987338563585
Let this be the death of third-way DLC politics.

LOL You think a further left candidate would have done better?

Probably, although I'm not sure by how much. Their ideas are clearly more popular at the ballot box. If the Republican campaign had been baited into arguing more on the issues instead of decency porn because they mistakenly thought they were winning, the contours of the campaign might have been different. Just maybe, the groups which voted disproportionately for progressive candidates in primaries wouldn't be abandoning Democrats faster than anyone else.

Eastmann got obliterated in NE-2, which Biden carried comfortably.

Indeed. Eastman was a special case, having been done over by the previous Democratic Congressman.

The more Democrats run away from their own platform under the pretext of electability, the less they should expect anyone to believe in it.

I strongly suspect that a large part of the problem is how many progressive democrats insist on - inaccurately - describing themselves as socialists

[Sir Mohamed]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

[DrScholl]

Is that the first time in recent history Forsyth has given a D more than 30% for president?

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.

The House was pretty bad for Dems all around. We lost a lot of good freshman from Cunningham in SC to Horn in OK to Quetzalcoatl Small in NM. RIP FFs

Cunningham lost? Damn

How many seats will we have at the end of this?

We will probably have lost between 5-10 seats when it's all said and done (we're at 2 pickups and 7 losses right now but we have to wait on CA, NY etc). To be fair, they were low-hanging fruit (many of these districts would have fallen during a Biden midterm anyways) but still disappointing because we lost good talent

It looks like GA-07 will be a flip too, at least

Yes, Bourdeaux has declared victory although McCormick has not conceded.  Since she's at 51.15% with all of Forsyth County in (the more R part of the district) she's got it.

(btw, Forsyth wound up going 67-31 Trump, down from 71-24 in 2016 and not too far off my prediction of 65-35).

Yes.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?