PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[ProgressiveModerate]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

[President Johnson]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

That was largely due extreme gerrymandering. I mean, Republicans lost the popular vote by ten in 2018 and still maintained a majority. This is absolutely insane.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

[President Johnson]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

So the remaining co-conspirators jump off the sinking ship? Glorious to see!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano's only advertiser pulled out, he himself seems to be giving up, and SaintStan still has him winning in his TL lol

So the remaining co-conspirators jump off the sinking ship? Glorious to see!

Yeah. Eventually a race reaches a point where there's no conceivable way that a candidate can win. It's just rare it happens in swing states these days. But I'll go ahead and say if this track continues- as it almost certainly will- it's more likely Shapiro blows past double digits than Mastriano pulls of a win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1575914518458224640

I'm taking the plunge and moving this to Safe D.

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1575914518458224640

I'm taking the plunge and moving this to Safe D.

I’ve been hesitant to label the race as safe, but at some point you have to call a spade a spade. The race has been over since May, and it’s pretty clear Mastriano is just giving up.

[wbrocks67]

So with the extreme divergence in both major statewide Pennsylvania races, with this one looking increasingly like a lock for Shapiro and Oz making a comeback in the Senate race, what can Shapiro do to help Fetterman? He might as well focus his efforts there as well as in trying to get a Democratic legislature now that Mastriano is close to dead in the water. I get not wanting to be complacent but this is getting into "stop! He's already dead!" territory and the resources that may go into beating him further into the ground could be utilized better elsewhere.

Oz and Mastriano are generally only about 1-2% difference in most polls, so Fetterman just has to lock in more of the Shapiro/undecided voters. I think it would help if the two at least did 1 or 2 events together just to show the average voter that they're in line with each other.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

With about a month to go, I haven't seen ONE single anti-Shapiro ad.  Not on TV, not on YouTube -- absolutely zero.  I can't ever recall a similar major statewide race here in that sense.  

Actually, come to think of it, I've stopped seeing pro-Shapiro ads too. 

[Splash]

With about a month to go, I haven't seen ONE single anti-Shapiro ad.  Not on TV, not on YouTube -- absolutely zero.  I can't ever recall a similar major statewide race here in that sense.  

Actually, come to think of it, I've stopped seeing pro-Shapiro ads too.  

I watch cable TV but I am still being inundated with digital ads on YouTube, etc. that are anti-Mastriano/Oz or pro-Shapiro.

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm taking the plunge and moving this to Safe D.

In practice, that's precisely what it is.

[Pollster]

I have a strong feeling that in the lineup of Pennsylvania gubernatorial elections of the 21st century, the 2010 result is going to stick out like a sore thumb.

[Calthrina950]

I have a strong feeling that in the lineup of Pennsylvania gubernatorial elections of the 21st century, the 2010 result is going to stick out like a sore thumb.

I'm assuming that is because it is the only gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania won by Republicans in this century?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

[Pollster]

I have a strong feeling that in the lineup of Pennsylvania gubernatorial elections of the 21st century, the 2010 result is going to stick out like a sore thumb.

I'm assuming that is because it is the only gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania won by Republicans in this century?

Not just that - the 2010 GOP win was by a very comfortable margin and is surrounded by Dem wins by similarly if not more comfortable margins. Without context it's an incredibly confusing result.

[kwabbit]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

[Calthrina950]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

Given recent history, I wouldn't be surprised if it means Shapiro does worse. By "worse", that would mean he would win by "only" 6% or so, while Fetterman defeats Oz by 2% or so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1576320629426753536

They have pole dancing and porn in elementary schools now?  Wow, things have sure changed since I was a kid.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

Given recent history, I wouldn't be surprised if it means Shapiro does worse. By "worse", that would mean he would win by "only" 6% or so, while Fetterman defeats Oz by 2% or so.

Yeah, I don't think there is going to be a huge disparity in the end. Shapiro will outperform Fetterman simply bc some Republicans who usually go full GOP will even abandon Mastriano (never gettable for Fetterman though), but I don't think there will be as many "swingy" Shapiro/Oz voters as people think. Most people will come home to their respective sides.

[wbrocks67]

Given the trajectory of this race, you wonder who Shapiro may want/appoint as AG in his place. Would think Conor Lamb, especially with prosecutorial background, is the top choice.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This can't be repeated enough, but this is SAFE-D.

[Skill and Chance]

Given the trajectory of this race, you wonder who Shapiro may want/appoint as AG in his place. Would think Conor Lamb, especially with prosecutorial background, is the top choice.

That makes sense to me.  He's young and I would think he's someone PA Dems would want to give another chance to down the line.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

Given recent history, I wouldn't be surprised if it means Shapiro does worse. By "worse", that would mean he would win by "only" 6% or so, while Fetterman defeats Oz by 2% or so.

Yes, there's a couple different scenarios here:

1. Undecideds break against Mastriano as he gets triaged, but toward Republicans in general (think of PA-GOV 2014): Shapiro +12, Oz+2, Republicans hold the state legislature, etc. 

2. Polling is understating candidates with the most working class appeal (think of 2016 and 2012 together): Shapiro +5, Fetterman +3, US House and state legislative Republicans overperform expectations

3.  Polling is understating Republicans across the board, possibly dramatically (think of 2020 or VA 2013): Shapiro +2, Oz +5, big Republican US House and state legislative gains

[Burke Bro]

The Republican establishment is pretty clearly against Mastriano and were clearly trying to stop him. And all reliable sources indicate that Mastriano loses badly to Shapiro and underperform other Republicans significantly.

I’m sorry, but I have to disagree with you. It is very unlikely that Democrats win an open race like this in a national environment that favors republicans. Especially in this era of polarization where split ticket voting is uncommon. If the Republican establishment were truly against Mastriano at this point, then we would see multiple high profile Republican endorsements of Shapiro. But that hasn’t happened yet and likely never will. You would have to be living in a left wing media bubble to believe that Shapiro is somehow the favorite here.

Well this aged poorly. I didn’t expect national Republicans to abandon Mastriano so fast and for there to be such a substantial gap in support between Oz and Mastriano. There’s barely enough time between now and Election Day to close the gap and this race is increasingly looking like a missed opportunity. It goes to show that while outsider rhetoric/public perception can matter in a Republican primary where you don’t need a lot of votes to win and can matter slightly in a general election, the true elephant in the room (no pun intended) is wether the party machine is working behind you.

It speaks to the priorities of the Republican Party when one candidate has been on Fox News almost everyday for the past few weeks and the other one hasn’t.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Semi-related question to this race: What's the outlook for the Pennsylvania General Assembly after redistricting? Are Republicans expected to keep both chambers even if Shapiro pulls off a clear victory? Republicans controlled the legislative entirely since the 2010 election and many of Tom Wolf's proposed policies like a minimum wage increase or higher taxes for corporations/wealthy people were stonewalled by lawmakers. I guess nothing will change here?

For the state house, CNalysis has Republicans favored in 103 seats and Democrats favored in 98, with two tossups (one in Pittsburgh's North Hills and one in DelCo) - the former is open and the latter is held by an incumbent Republican.

I think the state house became considerably more favorable to Democrats in redistricting. For instance, there are now three safe D seats around Harrisburg and two around Lancaster, while the previous maps only had one each. 

Cervas drew the State House map and seemed to make small D friendly decisions to overcome Dems generally poor geography, and I also think population shifts generally favored Ds.

It's insane how large Rs majority was pre-2018

That was largely due extreme gerrymandering. I mean, Republicans lost the popular vote by ten in 2018 and still maintained a majority. This is absolutely insane.

Yeah, and Dems had absolutely terrible geography in PA around 2014-2016 era since most of the rural seats had become long gone yet they were still losing in the suburbs. In 2018 Dems were able to flip a ton of suburban seats, particularly around Philly, and held almost  all of them in 2020.