PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Calthrina950]

I'm not as familiar with this race as the PA posters, but I have the impression Shapiro is running very strong. Hot take: He's more likely to be gov in 2023 than Whitmer and Evers.

Not a hot take. Shapiro has a track record of running pretty well statewide.

Never had to run in a midterm year unfavorably to his party

He ran ahead of Biden in a year that Biden barely won PA.

I think it's possible that Shapiro wins the gubernatorial race, while Republicans holds the Senate seat. After all, in 2020, Republicans won the State Auditor and State Treasurer races while Democrats won the presidential and Attorney General races. And as you note, Shapiro has generally run ahead of other Democratic candidates on the ballot (and this was true in both 2016 and 2020). But if such a scenario happens, both races will probably be within a percentage point or two.

[Calthrina950]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

While I think Dems have a good chance at Senate, this is the most likely outcome.

So you believe Democrats are going to win both races?

[Calthrina950]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

While I think Dems have a good chance at Senate, this is the most likely outcome.

So you believe Democrats are going to win both races?

No I mean the most likely outcome is likely a split with Shapiro winning and an R winning Senate, but I think Dems still have a good chance at Senate too given the terrible GOP field

I've actually said this myself, that a split outcome is the most likely. Which of the Democratic Senate candidates do you think would be stronger?

[Calthrina950]

Any reason why there hasn't been nearly as much discussion about this race?

It seems as if the state GOP and the media have been focused on the Senate race. Especially odd since I think Barletta and Mastriano are both horrible candidates for a very winnable race like PA-GOV in a Republican year.

Is Shapiro just that strong of a candidate that people just expect him to win in spite of the political winds?

Combination of a completely uncompetitive D primary and a completely stupid GOP clown car primary, minus the interesting personalities like we have in the Senate primary. Nobody gives a sh*t about Mastriano or Barletta or White. They're all boring. At least there's been some fun jabs between Oz and McCormick.

This is why I think Shapiro could win even if the Republicans hold the Senate seat. He's a strong candidate who has the full backing of his party, while his Republican opponents are unimpressive.

[Calthrina950]

Shapiro has objectively been running a top-tier campaign. It would be a huge shame if he lost bc of the environment, given that a red wave year is pretty much the only disadvantage he has in this race.

There have been races which have defied the national mood in previous wave years (i.e., FL-GOV and FL-SEN 2018, MN-GOV and MI-SEN 2014, CO-SEN and NV-SEN 2010, MN-GOV 2006) for both Democrats and Republicans, and I don't think year will be different in that respect. PA-GOV could very well be a mood-defying race for Democrats in 2022.

[Calthrina950]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

[Calthrina950]

I can only imagine if Republicans had nominated Reschenthaler and Bartos. They would be in a much better position. Even McCormick and Barletta would have a better chance of winning than Oz and Mastriano at this point.

Wasn't it mentioned earlier that Bartos's wife is fundraising for Shapiro?

I did read that, and it certainly highlights the "unfortunate" situation Pennsylvania Republicans find themselves in.

[Calthrina950]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

[Calthrina950]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

I'm not sure if there's a disconnect here, but I didn't say they would. My point, like the one above, is that Shapiro spending so much time in rural areas compared to the usual D candidate can help shave the margin. It's the reason why Shapiro has been able to do so well in the past.

There isn't a disconnect, as I am agreeing with you that he (and Fetterman) will need to hold down the margins in Republican areas, if only marginally, to win.

[Calthrina950]

Mastriano has just absolutely no campaign. No network in the state, no friends in the party, no donors. Potentially a worse campaign than Wagner's. If he wins, it will be a minor miracle and he'll be set up very poorly to govern in 2023.

It's certainly obvious now why Shapiro spent extensively to prop Mastriano up in the primary. He knew that Mastriano would be the weakest opponent that he could face this year. It's starting to look likely that we might see a split outcome in Pennsylvania. Oz still has a chance, but Mastriano's prospects are very poor at this point.

[Calthrina950]

I have a strong feeling that in the lineup of Pennsylvania gubernatorial elections of the 21st century, the 2010 result is going to stick out like a sore thumb.

I'm assuming that is because it is the only gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania won by Republicans in this century?

[Calthrina950]

Yeah. As I mentioned before, it might help Fetterman similar to how Tammy Baldwin arguably pulled Evers over the line.

I think it’s usually thought that the governor race does the pulling. It holds the top position on the ballot, so it informs the subsequent choices. Shapiro might pull Fetterman over the line, but I don’t think Baldwin pulled Evers over the line. Walker was very decisive in a neutral state in a wave year. I think his performance was actually quite good in retrospect.

Either way, the gap between Fetterman and Shapiro will be overestimated by the pols. Whether that means Shapiro does worse or Fetterman does better will determine the Senate race.

Given recent history, I wouldn't be surprised if it means Shapiro does worse. By "worse", that would mean he would win by "only" 6% or so, while Fetterman defeats Oz by 2% or so.

[Calthrina950]

Doug has finally found a few bucks to get on TV

edit: the buy is $21K lol

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1576957083685199874

Mastriano is running out of time, so I doubt that a limited ad buy like this is going to have much impact.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, how many counties does Shapiro win?

I think he has a decent shot at Wolf's 2018 map (all 13 that were won by Biden plus Beaver, Berks, Cumberland and Luzerne). I wonder if even Lancaster is possible...

As a semi-proud Lancaster County resident, there's very little chance he carries it. Maybe for reelection in 2026, but it's not there yet, Mastriano signs are everywhere. I do think Democrats should invest though, long term trends are favorable for them and it's the biggest Republican county in the state. Without it, it's really difficult for Republicans to win statewide.

As far as I know, only two Democrats have ever won Lancaster County - Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bob Casey Sr. in 1990. Lancaster is not as heavily Republican as it used to be, but it is still a reliably Republican stronghold. Mastriano will definitely carry it. But it is a county that could flip Democratic down the road.

James Buchanan actually carried it as well due to being a favorite son, but that’s the only other example I’m aware of. It’s one of the most consistently Republican counties in the country.

I forgot about Buchanan, but then I realize that was before the Civil War. Johnson is the only Democrat since Buchanan to have carried it at the presidential level. There are several other counties in Pennsylvania where Johnson is the only Democrat since the Civil War to have won at the presidential level, and all of those counties voted for Casey in 1990, when he won every county except for Montgomery.

[Calthrina950]

Shapiro is absolutely a future Presidential candidate. People in the handshake line after the rally yesterday were telling him "Don't stop at Governor." He clearly has studied Obama and I would expect him to run in 2028.

I would concur with this. I listened to a portion of Shapiro's speech and he sounded almost exactly like Obama, with the same tone and rhetorical style. He would be a formidable candidate for Democrats, and certainly better than Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg.