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Where can I find the notional margins for this election's seats, and ideally demographic data by seat too?

And going off that, is there one for the previous elections/boundaries?

I mean if you take these polls at face value and assume the other states don't flip (except NE 2) then Biden wins unless I'm missing something. So umm, that's good. lol

Also including RKF et al. doesn't flip any of these states.

Any idea if their will be any Nationalist and Unionist pacts in Northern Ireland this time?

Not likely, but possible. Voted option 2 since my waffling isn't an option.

Tough one.  I'm going to Italy tomorrow (!), so I'd love to be able to fully communicate with the locals, but I have several Brazilian friends, so I have to go with Portuguese.

Currently hoping to take an Italian class in the fall. Portuguese may be more significant, but in terms of Latin America I'd be better off rehabilitating my Spanish.

*backsplash

I do have a crystal ball, but unfortunately it's broken and I can't get parts for it anymore.

The major problem is polling agencies keep updating their weighting method every cycle. We cannot use the difference between previous polling and result as references, since they may already adjusted or over-adjusted. If they overrated R by 3 last time, they may underrate by 2 this time because of that. Had they stay the same, it would be much easier for us to make predictions. Ironically the polling agencies trying to correct their previous errors makes it harder to make predictions.

[+/-4.4%]

Garbarge Poll. Florida is not a Trump +6 State. More like Trump +8 or Trump +9.

This is an unusually bad post even by the standards of this forum.  From the report:

The survey included 3,843 registered voters and included about 500 respondents in each of the eight swing states.

The margin of error on a sample size of 500 is about +/-4.4% -- on each candidate's share, not the margin.  And you're calling a margin that's 2% or 3% off what you think it should be, "garbage"?  This poll is a direct hit on where you think it should be!  That's what margin of error represents.

POLLS ARE NOT EXACT MEASUREMENTS.  If you do not understand this, I recommend that you take a beginning course in Probability and Statistics.

Woah, just take it easy man.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1793022968639221809

Contempt proceedings tonite queen?

As if we needed more proof how depraved Mr. Trump is as a character.

Or how unabashedly depraved his supporters are.