Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Brooks wins what's left in Lancaster by the 60/40 margin she has now, that's just enough to erase Flood's lead. Of course the rest of the district heavily favors Flood, so he still wins...but it's an embarrassingly close margin.

[Brittain33]

Lancaster has another drop at 10:15 central. Don’t see Flood losing but I want to see where this leaves the race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Lancaster has another drop at 10:15 central. Don’t see Flood losing but I want to see where this leaves the race.

I think we got it. NY Times has this race at 93% reporting and Flood leads 52.3-47.7.

[Brittain33]

Based on NYT, the last batch from Lancaster was friendly to Flood and numbers haven’t moved at all.

[Devils30]

Brooks overperformed Biden by over 5% in Lancaster, suburban Roe backlash already showing??

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling it for Flood.

Still an impressive showing though! Have to see if we see more like this in August, but this could signal a favorable shift for Dems as the campaign goes on.

[Minnesota Mike]

ED dump from Lancaster not surprisingly more Republican, it's over. Final margin will be around 5% which Democrats will have to feel good about.

[Brittain33]

Just noting this race has 108,000 votes counted already and the TX-34 race that people are hailing as the dawn of a realignment had total turnout of 29,000 votes.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

[Roll Roons]

What were the campaigns like? Did Flood get lazy and did Brooks work super hard?

Also I feel like this district actually may have flipped if Trump was still president.

[Devils30]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

Waukesha, Ozaukee problems coming for RonJohn? It won't be a temporary thing there with the 1800s law on the books.

This should make Dems take a second look at what seats are targets....maybe writing off NJ-7 is a bad idea in light of the suburban trends.

[Roll Roons]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

Waukesha, Ozaukee problems coming for RonJohn? It won't be a temporary thing there with the 1800s law on the books.

This should make Dems take a second look at what seats are targets....maybe writing off NJ-7 is a bad idea in light of the suburban trends.

If anything, I'd say there may be less backlash in blue states because there's no chance that abortion would become illegal.

[Devils30]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

Waukesha, Ozaukee problems coming for RonJohn? It won't be a temporary thing there with the 1800s law on the books.

This should make Dems take a second look at what seats are targets....maybe writing off NJ-7 is a bad idea in light of the suburban trends.

If anything, I'd say there may be less backlash in blue states because there's no chance that abortion would become illegal.

Yeah, I think the NJ-7s and the NY seats require Dems to really work hard to push the national message. Dems will need most of these swing districts to hold the House against all odds.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also, on Alaska, with Gross's withdrawal, there will simply just be 3 candidates on the ballot. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2022/06/28/three-candidates-advance-from-alaskas-special-top-four-u-s-house-primary/

[DaleCooper]

I don't feel like doing an effort post just yet but a Republican winning an NE-01 special election in a Biden midterm by about 4 points is goddamn pathetic and Republicans in these types of suburban seats should be scared by this.

I'm not changing any of my predictions based on this, but this is a reminder to people here not to pretend that the elements of Trump realignment that benefit Democrats are on hold or reversing just because Trump is gone for now.

[DaleCooper]

This was a real shocker. It seems like Lincoln drove pretty much all of the leftward shift? Did the rural counties also vote more D than in 2020?

Aside from suburban backlash following Roe, I can't think of why this would be so close, but also I know very little about the candidate quality. But if it is Roe, it's probably a temporary thing given how recent that news is.

When an incumbent resigns in disgrace, these off-cycle specials tend to go worse than the fundamentals suggest for the incumbent party.

See CA-25 (2020), NY-27 (2020), PA-18 (2018), NY-9 (2011), etc.

I doubt Fortenberry's resignation is too big of a deal here, to be honest. I think it's just that Lincoln is a growing college city full of suburban high propensity voters that lean Democrat these days. If this special had been because of him resigning due to personal tragedy or something apolitical I don't think it would've turned out much different.

[Tartarus Sauce]

This district could very easily flip in the next Republican midterm. Definitely a worrying sign for Republicans about their continuing brand weakness in educated metropolitan areas going forward.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hilariously my employer probably helped the Democrats here. They're based out of Lincoln and have deals with local landlords to offer subsidized apartments to employees. I'm sure their hires are mostly Democrats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fun fact that's really weird to think about; Dems got a higher share of the total vote than NE-02 in 2020.

Rmbr that dynamics in special elections can be a bit weird, but overall recent special elections have been pretty decent for Dems outside TX-34

[DaleCooper]

I dozed off after work today so I missed the initial counting after polls closed. After I'd been up for a bit I remembered to check and before looking I guessed that it would be an R victory by around about 15, maybe a point or two less. I would've guessed that holding Republicans to 10 would be an enormous upset.

Not that I'm an expert or anything, but that's just to give you an idea of what I was expecting and how much of a surprise this was for me.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If this swing holds up nationwide in November, we could be looking at 55 Dem seats in the Senate and a 2008-size majoirty in the House.

[Devils30]

If this swing holds up nationwide in November, we could be looking at 55 Dem seats in the Senate and a 2008-size majoirty in the House.

It won't. Best case scenario for Dems is a 2002 type win and even that's like a 5% chance.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If this swing holds up nationwide in November, we could be looking at 55 Dem seats in the Senate and a 2008-size majoirty in the House.

LOL

[DaleCooper]

Looks like the final result will be about 7%, but that's still terrible for Republicans and way less than I ever would've guessed.

[wesmoorenerd]

Four points better than Biden's performance in the district on the margin. If that were a universal swing, Dems would net like fifteen seats in November. And that's with high turnout and a credible candidate on their part. The GOP should be worried about this result.