Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This primary is a sad indictment of the democratic party. "You criticize us, we'll use whatever dirty tactics to make sure you never get into power". Biden was a bowl of sh**t.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This primary is a sad indictment of the democratic party. "You criticize us, we'll use whatever dirty tactics to make sure you never get into power". Biden was a bowl of sh**t.

No, Nina Turner was just a very awful candidate, and a terrible fit for the district.

She was one of the best candidates to run for office in the last 40 years

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Who wins the California 22 special election today?

Connie Conway?

Conway will likely make the runoff yes.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

I wouldn't try and make big judgments from 9% of the precincts reporting - and remember in California everything is a "partial report" on election night:


Unofficial Election Results
Results will be certified by April 14, 2022.

( 19 of 208 ) precincts partially
reporting as of April 5, 2022, 8:42 p.m.


Precincts are listed as “partially” reporting since vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be processed and counted after Election Night.


Certainly if this margin holds up it's concerning...but it's early.

It says 59% of the vote is in from the Washington Post.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

So, is this the election day votes, early votes in, both, partially, what?

Since E-Day votes obviously favor the GOP and early votes favor the Democrats.

Mostly early votes, but it's also disproportionately from the more Republican county in the district. So hard to tell much.

How long will it take for the voting to be counted?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Still, the extent of the overperformance shouldn't be ignored.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Not an election Dems have much reason to care about; no impact on the house this congress and the seat will flip to them anyway with the new gerrymandered boundaries in November.

But this could be a bad sign for Democrats in November.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If this swing holds up nationwide in November, we could be looking at 55 Dem seats in the Senate and a 2008-size majoirty in the House.

LOL

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Damn I wanted Hughes, Malloy will be a meh normiecon like Blake Moore.
At least this all but guarantees Edwards is DOA.

Democrats, can we please swap Nevada and Utah? We don't want the Mormons.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ironically, if Greg Hughes won the convention he probably would have more easily won, since Hough likely wouldn't have  run against him.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Thank god Edwards was defeated in the R primary, but it seems like Maloy isn't that great either. Was really hoping for Hough but at least it wasn't the worst case situation.

Its a low bar. We got an Andrew Garbarino instead of a Wayne Gilchrest.