A recession still would have happened in 2020. There was a sharp slowdown in manufacturing activity in 2019 due to the trade war with China (and Brexit in Europe). No COVID means less impetus for stimulus, so it would have lasted longer too. But more importantly, without COVID pulling everyone's attention inward, the Iranian-American confrontation might not have fizzled out and some neocon or another probably would have been able to goad a desperate Trump into invading around the summer (i.e. not soon enough for the anti-war movement to boost Sanders toward the nomination as it might have had war broken out in January). The ensuing oil shock would have deepened what might have otherwise been a fairly mild recession.
On the racial unrest, George Floyd is saved by the butterfly effect, but remember that there were plenty of other instances of police brutality around that time: Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, Christian Cooper, and Jacob Blake all made the news before and after May 25. Aside from being the most extensively filmed and unusually cruel, Floyd's murder was amplified over the others because it was the first to happen after the lockdown started and its economic effects were taking a serious toll, particularly on the poor and minorities. I think, with the country being more politically conscious heading into election season, that there still might have been some localized BLM protests in conjunction with unrest related to the recession and the probable anti-war protests. 2020 was already set to be our generations' 1968 in terms of escalating social conflicts.
In this scenario, Biden ends up doing better. Trump doesn't get the millions of super low-propensity anti-lockdown and conspiracy theorist voters he gained from COVID, while Biden wouldn't have to walk a tightrope on lockdowns or George Floyd protests. He would be well positioned with his then-esteemed foreign policy experience to campaign against the Iran War in a Nixonian sort of way that satisfies both the anti-war movement and Middle Americans who support the troops™ but just don't like the sectarian quagmire it would devolve into. With Black Lives Matter being a smaller element in the escalation of social conflicts, the focus when selecting a running mate would be more on appealing to progressives.
Biden's more impressive popular vote margin probably doesn't net too much on the electoral map, however. Ohio still sticks with Trump (recession or not, the trade war wins them over), as does Florida (critical mass of boomer retirees and reactionary Cubans and Venezuelans). The Farm Crisis generation had probably faded too much for a win in Iowa while Texas probably wasn't quite ready yet (not to mention the Texas oil industry would certainly enjoy a boost).
President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) ✓
