2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (user search)
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130017 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: September 15, 2018, 03:10:54 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on September 15, 2018, 12:57:12 PM
Good news....Thanks to Trump insistence of a #RedWave...many GOP midterm voters are checking out of voting this year according to GOP pollsters:





That's hilarious.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2018, 09:30:03 PM »
Republicans ended up winning the House PV by 6.8 in 2010, so according to this metric we could see a double-digit Democratic win. Of course, that's all speculation.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2018, 10:41:57 PM »

Internal with zero undecideds? Sorry but throw it in the trash.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2018, 11:42:14 PM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 17, 2018, 11:25:28 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 17, 2018, 10:41:57 PM

Internal with zero undecideds? Sorry but throw it in the trash.

It's the final round of the IRV, so voters must basically pick 1 of the top 2.

That doesn't mean pollsters should push undecideds THAT much.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2018, 01:31:06 PM »
Shalala is absolutely pathetic. I share Virginia's feelings 100%.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 01:09:19 PM »
Are we really taking internals at face value now?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2018, 02:56:12 PM »
There's evidence of the GCB lead coming down slightly from its height about a week ago, although it's probably just reversion to the mean.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 07:14:39 PM »

Isn't POR a partisan pollster?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 07:43:46 PM »
Huh, so it being tied sounds like good news for McGrath.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 11:20:02 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 25, 2018, 09:56:52 PM
Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

538 keeps a record of all these polls.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2018, 12:49:15 AM »
Atlas is more interesting has better data/takes on politics for 21 months out of 24, but as soon as election season kicks in, 538 is miles ahead. I think specialization works to both's advantage.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2018, 12:15:54 PM »
Yeah, ARG is a joke. I'm surprised 538 is still including them even after Nate exposed them for fudging the numbers all the way back in 2008-2009 (maybe they've reformed, I guess).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2018, 03:58:23 PM »
OMG yeah, I just saw that and thought "yeah, they must have messed things up". Then I ran to this thread to confirm it.

Glad I had the right reflex. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2018, 04:21:41 PM »
Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2018, 04:48:07 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 30, 2018, 03:41:40 PM
Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

Isn't Change Research a Dem group?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 03:12:41 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on October 02, 2018, 02:44:54 PM
Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

Oh boy, Walters is in trouble.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 07:20:12 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on October 02, 2018, 06:30:24 PM

Ipsos tells us about as much as throwing around some goat entrails and having the augurs watch how the birds fly after invoking the name of Jupiter

Yeah, at this point I'm convinced Ipsos is junk.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 12:24:37 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 03, 2018, 11:41:16 AM
The blue wave will probably recede and surge at least ten times before Election Day and we’ll have the same predictable flip outs on here

Actually, one thing that's interesting about polls this year is that they're a lot less swingy than in 2016. In 2016, between late August and early October, polling averages had gone from Hillary being up by double digits to her only leading by 1 or 2, then back to Obama-2008 level margins. This year, by contrast, the generic ballot has only hovered between D+7 and D+9. That's a remarkable stability, even if it does make a difference whether it's 7 or 9 in the end.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 04:24:44 PM »
OK, yeah, a few more of these polls and I'll start to get nervous.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2018, 04:34:01 PM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 03, 2018, 04:28:36 PM
Guys the poll was freaking D+6 and +9 in the LV model. For the love of god stop nitpicking

I never look at one poll in a vacuum. I do, however, look at this. Dem lead at its lowest level in more than a month.

(Again, those are minor swings compared to what we saw in 2016, but it still means fewer seats for Democrats.)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2018, 05:03:35 PM »
Rasmussen of all pollsters has Dems up 9? Nothing makes sense in this world anymore.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2018, 05:10:15 PM »
Why is "Political Polls" doing the polling equivalent of necroposting?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 09:38:15 PM »
Good God this thread is bad.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 11:22:36 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 07, 2018, 10:34:44 PM
Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

I mean, the plateauing is because there haven't been as many polls in the last few days of the week. Don't be surprised if you see either another big drop or a big bump (hoping for the latter...) tomorrow, as Monday usually brings out a slew of new polls.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2018, 11:14:06 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 09, 2018, 11:12:52 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 09, 2018, 11:10:48 AM
Democrats gain 3 points in CNN's Generic Ballot vs September:



Kavanaugh  Bump

What a nice poll.
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