2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have a feeling Republicans are going to regret not dragging out the Kavanaugh fight until late October because they seem to be peaking a little early.  A month is still a long time in politics.

That’s a very good point, actually. I was wondering the same.

I had the same thought.

[pbrower2a]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

Heitkamp has won North Dakota before, and the only change in North Dakota has been an oil boom. She can work farmers and ranchers who have cause to distrust the President on tariffs and the effects of the trade war. 

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One month away?  The Kavanaugh nomination and confirmation will not pass the 'stink test'. Donald Trump has every right to nominate Hard Right ideologues to the Supreme Court, but the drunk, partisan ranter will not look like a good vote.  Republican Senators will have to answer for any vote for Kavanaugh in 2018, 2020, or 2022, especially should he be an embarrassment. In 2020 this could hurt Joni Ernst (IA) and Corey Booker (CO), right-wing Republican Senators from swing-state Iowa and former swing-state Colorado.   

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Obviously the last votes to be counted have yet to be counted... but the first votes are already in. I do not like to project whether politicians are peaking too early or that they are about to fade. The  favorite slogan of political losers is that the only poll that counts is the election itself, which is definitively true --  but it is up to politicians to win.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047956776644014080

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047963979920760832

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047956776644014080

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047963979920760832

Kaboom.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047956776644014080

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047963979920760832

Those polls are dated to last week though

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rasmussen of all pollsters has Dems up 9? Nothing makes sense in this world anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047956776644014080

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1047963979920760832

Those polls are dated to last week though

There's a new Harvard/Harris (comparable to the second one) from Sep. 29-30 at 45/37.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is "Political Polls" doing the polling equivalent of necroposting?

[Calthrina950]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

Heitkamp has won North Dakota before, and the only change in North Dakota has been an oil boom. She can work farmers and ranchers who have cause to distrust the President on tariffs and the effects of the trade war. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One month away?  The Kavanaugh nomination and confirmation will not pass the 'stink test'. Donald Trump has every right to nominate Hard Right ideologues to the Supreme Court, but the drunk, partisan ranter will not look like a good vote.  Republican Senators will have to answer for any vote for Kavanaugh in 2018, 2020, or 2022, especially should he be an embarrassment. In 2020 this could hurt Joni Ernst (IA) and Corey Booker (CO), right-wing Republican Senators from swing-state Iowa and former swing-state Colorado.   

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Obviously the last votes to be counted have yet to be counted... but the first votes are already in. I do not like to project whether politicians are peaking too early or that they are about to fade. The  favorite slogan of political losers is that the only poll that counts is the election itself, which is definitively true --  but it is up to politicians to win.

You must mean Cory Gardner?

[SN2903]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

The house is usually tougher to predict because the districts are so gerrymandered. With that being said there is definitely movement toward the GOP in the last week and movement away from the democrats. I do not think that Gillum can hold that lead he is too left wing for Florida and I think DeSantis will end up narrowily winning as well as Rick Scott. Florida is becoming fools gold for democrats just as PA used to be for the GOP. Things COULD CHANGE in the next month but it's not that long of a time and the enthusiasm of each side is now even according to the latest poll which is really bad news for democrats. The democrats got cocky again and overreached with Kavanaugh. They should have not pushed so hard and riled up the GOP base. Now you have an energized GOP base. I agree with the OP largely. The democrats are in trouble in 2020 and until 2026 probably. I think 2018 could end up being a surprising showing for the GOP and the democrats may not win the house back. Democrats are lost as a party right now. They have no coherent message other than they hate Trump. The economy is in a strong position and we are not at war. Trump is looking stronger and stronger to be reelected by the day.

[Hindsight was 2020]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

The house is usually tougher to predict because the districts are so gerrymandered. With that being said there is definitely movement toward the GOP in the last week and movement away from the democrats. I do not think that Gillum can hold that lead he is too left wing for Florida and I think DeSantis will end up narrowily winning as well as Rick Scott. Florida is becoming fools gold for democrats just as PA used to be for the GOP. Things COULD CHANGE in the next month but it's not that long of a time and the enthusiasm of each side is now even according to the latest poll which is really bad news for democrats. The democrats got cocky again and overreached with Kavanaugh. They should have not pushed so hard and riled up the GOP base. Now you have an energized GOP base. I agree with the OP largely. The democrats are in trouble in 2020 and until 2026 probably. I think 2018 could end up being a surprising showing for the GOP and the democrats may not win the house back. Democrats are lost as a party right now. They have no coherent message other than they hate Trump. The economy is in a strong position and we are not at war. Trump is looking stronger and stronger to be reelected by the day.

Great parody post. 10/10

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.

I think they're already in the average.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.

I think they're already in the average.

The Rasmussen one definitely isn't.

The D +2 poll from IBD is. Of course.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And 538 ignores all the new D +9 polls, for some reason.

I think they're already in the average.

The Rasmussen one definitely isn't.

The D +2 poll from IBD is. Of course.

If you think they've missed one or entered one wrong, you can use the feedback button and let them know.  I've done this a few times and they've fixed it within hours (and usually sent a personal response).

[IceSpear]

Polls literally haven't changed. Why are people inventing polls out of thin air?


Heitkamp was always going to have a really rough time in a state Trump won by 36 and Cramer won by 50. The fundamentals (not 538 trash fundamentals) were terrible for Heitkamp. Also, she was trailing in every poll anyways.

Bredesen always had a tough time

Mccaskill has been near tied for months now, same w/ Donnelly


Y'all need to stop inventing "GCB D+12 polls" (where? the average has been D+8 for... months now). The environment has been D+8 for months which will end up being around a 30-40 house seat gain

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships. 

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

These. This thread is bad and you should feel bad.

[IceSpear]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

A “joke”?

Heller has held on in ALOT of polls. Nevada is a lean blue state but not a shoe in by any stretch. Rosen isn’t the best canidate.

#analysis

[YE]

LOL he thinks Nevada is lean r. This guy is a joke. Republicans will win ND senate but will lose TN, NV, and AZ, and they'll lose several house seats at least 40 or more.

A “joke”?

Heller has held on in ALOT of polls. Nevada is a lean blue state but not a shoe in by any stretch. Rosen isn’t the best canidate.

You realize polls in NV almost always underestimate Dems there right?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

[wesmoorenerd]

FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

Perhaps even Curbelo won't be able to outrun the wave. Tilt R > Tilt D.

It's looking increasingly likely that the only Republicans left in D-leaning seats after November are Valadao and Katko, maybe even just Valadao.

[Zaybay]

FL-26 DCCC/GBA Strategies: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 50, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/mucarsel-powell-narrowly-leads-curbelo-dccc-poll-floridas-26th-district

Note: This is separate from DMP's own recent internal showing her up 49-48.

Perhaps even Curbelo won't be able to outrun the wave. Tilt R > Tilt D.

It's looking increasingly likely that the only Republicans left in D-leaning seats after November are Valadao and Katko, maybe even just Valadao.

I would agree, it looks like Valadao may be the last one left, considering how much money Balter has and the seats move to lean R recently by pundits.

[Brittain33]

For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

It's not without reason. The two pieces of evidence were Republican strength in the primary (albeit because of a special election) and a recent poll showing Kim reverse burbstomping Cisneros.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Fitzpatrick seems to be in good shape. Same as Will Hurd. But yeah, most clinton-repubs are going down. I'm not convinced that Katko is particularly safe either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Oct. 1-4, 1000 RV (change from last month)

D: 50 (-2)
R: 42 (+3)

Some interesting issue questions, including:

Using taxes to provide free college tuition: 51/36

Medicare for all: 53/31

Basic income guarantee: 39/44 (much closer than I would have expected)

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[Zaybay]

Emerson, Oct. 1-4, 1000 RV (change from last month)

D: 50 (-2)
R: 42 (+3)

Some interesting issue questions, including:

Using taxes to provide free college tuition: 51/36

Medicare for all: 53/31

Basic income guarantee: 39/44 (much closer than I would have expected)

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This does confirm that the narrowing of the GCB is due to the Kavanaugh stuff. Problem is, if it is about Kavanaugh, then this wont last if hes confirmed soon.