2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

"Informed voters" = push poll.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This is going to be interesting.

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1047202668614209538

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[Devils30]

Trump approval is at 43% in VA-10, higher than his 2016 vote. Suggests an R friendly poll and this one is over.

[Ebsy]

So she didn't release the horse race numbers in her own internal? Yikes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

Oh boy, Walters is in trouble.

[ON Progressive]

Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

LOL. If even the "informed voters" (read: push poll) part can't get her above 45%, she is absolutely toast.

[Florida Man for Crime]

LOL. If even the "informed voters" (read: push poll) part can't get her above 45%, she is absolutely toast.

This is a please-triage-me poll. I guess she is just tired of being in Congress and wants to make sure Republicans don't waste any more money on her.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1047207542533836800

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

Sorry, Mimi, there aren't enough #informed (LOL) voters to save you. Bye.

[Ebsy]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

GOP holding this one.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sorry, Mimi, there aren't enough #informed (LOL) voters to save you. Bye.

The other funny thing is that Mimi has a 37-36 lead among voters "who have definitely made a decision."

Think about what that directly implies...

That means that 27% of voters... "who have definitely made a decision" have made that definite decision to be.... undecided...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

Why is the Green polling so well?

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

GOP holding this one.

Oh, shut up Limo Jr.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

Why is the Green polling so well?

Because the DCCC released the poll.

The DCCC is trying to send a message to lefty voters: "Don't vote for the Green, you'll cost us the race and give Trump a Republican House that will let him continue to run amok with a complete lack of accountability, like in 2016 when the Jill Stein votes could have made the difference."

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

GOP holding this one.

Oh, shut up Limo Jr.

If Kelly wins I will concede like I have done with Alabama, but if he loses you will make tons of excuses and just insult me.

[ON Progressive]

https://dccc.org/dccc-poll-brendan-kelly-dead-heat-congressman-mike-bost/

DCCC internal of IL-12: Bost+1

Kelly (Dem): 41
Bost (GOP): 42
Auxier (Gre): 8

Why is the Green polling so well?

The Greens always do well here for some bizarre reason. They got 6% last time.

[Florida Man for Crime]

AARP seems to have more of those super-annoying Age 50+ only polls... for Congressional races now.

As far as I can tell, these are in fact only for people age 50+, but it is hard to tell for sure.

They have polls of NY-19 and NY-22.

https://www.aarp.org/research/topics/politics/info-2018/2018-mid-term-state-voter-surveys.html

https://states.aarp.org/delgado-leads-faso-43-36-brindisi-leads-tenney-48-35-among-50-aarp-polls/

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Regardless of whether it is just age 50+ or all voters, those seem like horrible numbers for the Republicans, having incumbents at 35% and 36%. If those are at all accurate, NY-21 and NY-24 have to be in real danger as well, I would think.



They also have TX-07 and CO-06, I am not sure if those have been posted before???

If not, CO-06 is 41-36 in favor of Dems, TX-07 is 50-36 in favor of Reps. Again though, that is just age 50+ I think, so that would make a difference for TX-07 in particular, probably.

[new_patomic]

Even if the Kavanaugh hearings were an unqualified success for Republicans, obviously that wouldn't be enough to erase seven points from their generic ballot deficit.

It also assumes that any additional increase in enthusiasm or support among their own voters will stick around for four weeks.

If Kavanaugh is confirmed or jettisoned within the next week, I'm not sure we can really count on a Republican voter a month later being ready to go out to the polls to #AvengeBrett

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7

[KingSweden]

Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7

Ipsos tells us about as much as throwing around some goat entrails and having the augurs watch how the birds fly after invoking the name of Jupiter

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7

Ipsos tells us about as much as throwing around some goat entrails and having the augurs watch how the birds fly after invoking the name of Jupiter

Yeah, at this point I'm convinced Ipsos is junk.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1047322043866333184

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1047322043866333184

Has the RNC triaged this race yet?

[IceSpear]

Bust goes the expanding Republican bubble. A new Ipsos poll has it at D +12...

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/2/1800969/-Ipsos-Poll-Shows-Growing-Generic-Lead-Now-at-11-7

Ipsos tells us about as much as throwing around some goat entrails and having the augurs watch how the birds fly after invoking the name of Jupiter

LMAO

Anyway, after Barb's oppo research finds out Wexton is a pedophile VA-10 will be safe R.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1047462602786234370