2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA GCB: D+3 (47-44)

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyGeorgiaPollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

TN GCB: R+10 (50-40)

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyTennesseePollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

MS GCB: R+13 (51-38)

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyMississippiPollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

Add Alabama: R+18 (55-37)

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyAlabamaStatePollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1046934251755565056

If this is an attempt to keep donors in the race for him, it really falls flat.

[MT Treasurer]

ND-SRA Research: Armstrong (R) +24 (55% Armstrong, 31% Schneider)

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_ND_September_Survey.pdf

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

From what I can tell, this is the result of about a 0.5% gain for the GOP in the generic ballot over the last week (it's not D+8.4%, translating into an expected GCB on election day of D+8.1% in the model, compared to D+9%/D+8.6% about a week ago).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

From what I can tell, this is the result of about a 0.5% gain for the GOP in the generic ballot over the last week (it's not D+8.4%, translating into an expected GCB on election day of D+8.1% in the model, compared to D+9%/D+8.6% about a week ago).

Notice also that the newest polls are from lousy pollsters.

[InheritTheWind]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Hofold, if the average voter cared about politics as much as you think they did, we'd be living in a much better nation.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Hofold, if the average voter cared about politics as much as you think they did, we'd be living in a much better nation.

The average voter is prolly Republican. I don't want them as engaged.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Literally you, Limo, and Bagel have all said whenever Trump gets a bump or Dems go down that it was going to permanently continue in that direction and each and every time it wasn’t proven true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Sep. 27-30, 1111 RV (change from 3 weeks ago)

D: 49 (-3)
R: 42 (+4)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Quinnipiac, Sep. 27-30, 1111 RV (change from 3 weeks ago)

D: 49 (-3)
R: 42 (+4)

Red wave incoming.

[Yank2133]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

Literally you, Limo, and Bagel have all said whenever Trump gets a bump or Dems go down that it was going to permanently continue in that direction and each and every time it wasn’t proven true.

Yeah, They are concern-trolling (and not even doing a good job at it). The truth is the generic ballot has been remarkably stable over the last several months. It has been around 7-8 point Democratic lead since the start of the year.

[Virginiá]

Yeah, They are concern-trolling (and not even doing a good job at it). The truth is the generic ballot has been remarkably stable over the last several months. It has been around 7-8 point Democratic lead since the start of the year.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit concerned about the recent "tightening," but only because the only reference point I have is 2006 for a Dem midterm wave, and they were posting eye-popping numbers the entire time. In addition to that, it's October, aka the final stretch, and the final 3 weeks or so should give us an idea of which side the momentum is on, so I'd be hoping that Democrats expand their lead, not have it contract. But then again, I'm not sure if Democrats are going to over-perform their generic poll average or not, which is a big if.

The avg on 538 is 8.1%, which would be a very good result to have, but if Democrats are destined to under-perform, then ideally, you want your average GCB in the end to be more like 10 - 11 points. But if Democrats can match their average or better, than 8.1% is good enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh great. Here come the hot takes. D+7 is in line with the last six polls on 538 showing a 7-9 point advantage for the Democrats.

[Xing]

The "tightening" basically means that if the election were held today, Democrats might *only* gain about 30 seats, rather than 35-40. It's sickening how the Kavanaugh situation is somehow helping Republicans more, but that's the world we live in.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The "tightening" basically means that if the election were held today, Democrats might *only* gain about 30 seats, rather than 35-40. It's sickening how the Kavanaugh situation is somehow helping Republicans more, but that's the world we live in.

The polls aren’t showing any Kavanaugh effect on either side. QPac’s poll two days ago showed that the GOP got far worse marks than the Dems from Americans on the entire ordeal. Chill out.

[Virginiá]

The actual effect on 538's average so far is really too small to draw conclusions from, but since this forum revolves around drawing conclusions far too early, I can't help myself!

At this point, I feel confident Democrats will comfortably flip the House. My focus on the House PV is more for trying to game out how well Democrats will do in Senate, Gov and legislative races, since the GCB is basically a giant barometer for Democrats in general rather than just the House. I'm much more interested in how they will do further downballot, at the state level.

[Comrade Funk]

Dems in Disarray™

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article219351970.html

FL-26 DCCC internal: Mucarsel-Powell (D) 49, Curbelo (R-inc) 48

[Person Man]

The "tightening" basically means that if the election were held today, Democrats might *only* gain about 30 seats, rather than 35-40. It's sickening how the Kavanaugh situation is somehow helping Republicans more, but that's the world we live in.

The polls aren’t showing any Kavanaugh effect on either side. QPac’s poll two days ago showed that the GOP got far worse marks than the Dems from Americans on the entire ordeal. Chill out.

Maybe the stigma around sexual assault is being lessened. Maybe something else happened. Maybe a bunch of people feel richer because they just saved a lot on their car insurance.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if the Kavanaugh hearings were an unqualified success for Republicans, obviously that wouldn't be enough to erase seven points from their generic ballot deficit.
Quinnipiac has bounced around before and I wouldn't be surprised if their next poll shows Democrats with a 9-10 points lead.

[KingSweden]

The actual effect on 538's average so far is really too small to draw conclusions from, but since this forum revolves around drawing conclusions far too early, I can't help myself!

At this point, I feel confident Democrats will comfortably flip the House. My focus on the House PV is more for trying to game out how well Democrats will do in Senate, Gov and legislative races, since the GCB is basically a giant barometer for Democrats in general rather than just the House. I'm much more interested in how they will do further downballot, at the state level.

I too am much more interested in state level stuff

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm trying not to get nervous out of nothing, but how does FiveThirtyEight's forecast work? In one week Democrats' chances of winning the House have gone from 80% to 75%.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm trying not to get nervous out of nothing, but how does FiveThirtyEight's forecast work? In one week Democrats' chances of winning the House have gone from 80% to 75%.

Not only that, but it changes about every hour, even if there haven't been any polls in days.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/dkelections/status/1047207542533836800

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

CA-45 Walters-internal, Public Opinion Strategies:


Among voters "who have definitely made a decision"
Mimi Walters:  37%
Katie Porter:   36%

Among "informed voters"
Mimi Walters:  44%
Katie Porter:   39%

400 likely voters, September 24-27

https://www.mimiwalters.com/walters-leads-in-new-ca-45-poll/