2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[MT Treasurer]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

NH women support Kuster, Shaheen, et al. by North Korea-like margins, yet Atlas thinks NH-SEN 2020 is a pure Toss-up, lol. Some people never learn.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.

Donna Shalala's opponent's poll showed her leading 51-42. You're comparing apples to oranges.

[Xing]

Looks like not-woman Chris Pappas is also doing extremely well Anyway, it baffles me that people think districts like NH-01, NV-03, or NV-04 (LOL) might actually flip in this environment.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like not-woman Chris Pappas (D) is also doing extremely well

I bolded the reason for you.

[ON Progressive]

MI-06 (Public Opinion Strategies/Bishop internal):

Mike Bishop (R-inc) 45
Elissa Slotkin (D) 43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hCVvE7VowJEon60CBTgy0RBlKfmn2tfd/view

Does he seriously think a poll showing him only up 2 and at 45% in a Romney-Trump district is a great showing? LMAO.

Good ol POS.

I guess it's to counter the "Bishop is DOA because he got triaged" takes. Which it does an astoundingly poor job at doing. It'll be interesting to see what the Siena poll shows.

Of course, Atlas will have no problem dismissing this poll because it's not Donna Shalala's opponent releasing it.

Donna Shalala's opponent's poll showed her leading 51-42. You're comparing apples to oranges.

That was a McLaughlin poll though. You really shouldn’t take a McLqughlin poll seriously.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, ARG is a joke. I'm surprised 538 is still including them even after Nate exposed them for fudging the numbers all the way back in 2008-2009 (maybe they've reformed, I guess).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't panic if you look at the 538 GCB page and see this result:

SEP. 23-28
Harris Interactive   
C+
3,735   LV   0.46   
47%
40%
Republican +7   R +6

They have the parties swapped.  The actual result in the crosstabs is D 47, R 40.  I've sent them email about it.

[Virginiá]

Don't panic if you look at the 538 GCB page and see this result:

SEP. 23-28
Harris Interactive   
C+
3,735   LV   0.46   
47%
40%
Republican +7   R +6

They have the parties swapped.  The actual result in the crosstabs is D 47, R 40.  I've sent them email about it.

Calmly turns on defibrillator and places paddles on chest before lack of blood flow renders me unconscious

[libertpaulian]

This isn't GCB, but I found it to be a pertinent poll regarding the Kvanaugh fiasco:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/kavanaugh-blasey-ford-polling-testimony_us_5bafbb33e4b0c75759659b5d?ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067#click=https://t.co/TJMIruKQfB

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OMG yeah, I just saw that and thought "yeah, they must have messed things up". Then I ran to this thread to confirm it.

Glad I had the right reflex.

[IceSpear]

Looks like not-woman Chris Pappas (D) is also doing extremely well

I bolded the reason for you.

Why did Colin Van Ostern lose? He had the (D).

[libertpaulian]

Looks like not-woman Chris Pappas (D) is also doing extremely well

I bolded the reason for you.

Why did Colin Van Ostern lose? He had the (D).

Obviously not big enough for voters...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

I've sent them email about it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

I've sent them email about it.

They've fixed it.

[TheSaint250]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

What were they showing lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

What were they showing lol

They had a Harris D+7 poll entered as R+7.

[Adam Griffin]

I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

I thought it was because Ipsos had a brief period a few months ago where they changed their methodology, but changed it right back when they found out it was faulty.

[TheSaint250]

Can someone contact 538 about that misentered poll? It's screwing up all the forecasts.

What were they showing lol

They had a Harris D+7 poll entered as R+7.

Sorry I meant which races were they showing as being different than they should have been

[IceSpear]

I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

The same thing they're doing to show Dean Heller ahead, apparently.

[Xing]

I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

The same thing they're doing to show Dean Heller ahead, apparently.

But you see, when polls show more Republican-friendly results in Nevada than we expect, those results must be correct, since Nevada polling can't possibly be wrong this time.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Take this with the dead sea.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1045839732675096576

[Adam Griffin]

I just noticed something: of the 473 polls in the 538 GCB database this cycle, only 4 have shown a lead for the GOP: three of them are from Ipsos (and 1 was a Morning Consult poll from April 2017).

I know Ipsos is a garbage pollster, but what exactly are they doing to be the only pollster to show any GOP lead whatsoever over the past year and a half?

I thought it was because Ipsos had a brief period a few months ago where they changed their methodology, but changed it right back when they found out it was faulty.

No idea. The 3 Ipsos polls in question were from July 2017 (R+7), May 2018 (R+1) & August 2018 (R+2).

[libertpaulian]

I hope the GOP sweeps everything in NH, just to trigger MT Treasurer, lol.