2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1045840084757610496
https://mobile.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1045844275852963845
https://mobile.twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1046194201216647168

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

A desperate plea not to be triaged?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

If he is down by 3 and at 43 in his own internal, he is probably losing. Already had this at tilt D, gonna move it to lean D.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

Holy crap, that is a horrible poll for Webber. He's going to lose.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New Jersey is really going to be a killing field for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Already thought Sherrill would likely win but if the best Webber has is an internal of his opponent +3 then.... yeah

[GeorgiaModerate]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

It might be a call for help, but it's pretty obvious that the NRCC is looking for races they should triage, and now they have another option.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

Isn't Change Research a Dem group?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Not sure if I buy those, those are some over the top numbers for nearly even districts.

Yeah, the margins definitely won't end up being so massive since the undecideds are mostly Republicans, but it's not like these seats are even being seriously contested. And New Hampshire tends to swing big in waves.

Yea, the NH legislature has 1000's of seats flipping in waves like 2010, 2014 and 2018. This year's swings are going to be yuuuge.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

Lots of bad news for the GOP in there. People believe the Democrats handled the hearings better than the Republicans and they believe Ford over Kavanaugh.

[IceSpear]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

There's really no reason to still be polling registered voters at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Change Research, Sep. 27-28, 741 RV.  I can't find a prior from this pollster for comparison.

D 48
R 40

When undecided voters are pushed, it's 49/41.

Many detailed questions about Kavanaugh and the hearing in this poll for those who are interested.

Isn't Change Research a Dem group?

Yes, although their results have a small R bias (+0. according to 538.

[Brittain33]

45% favorability for Trump in that poll, sounds high.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey is really going to be a killing field for Republicans.

Good! You're welcome, America! We may deprive the GOP of four seats on our own!

[BudgieForce]

45% favorability for Trump in that poll, sounds high.

45/55 doesnt sound too outlandish tbh.

[IceSpear]

45% favorability for Trump in that poll, sounds high.

45/55 doesnt sound too outlandish tbh.

If the generic ballot ends up being around D+8, 45% will probably be around what the GOP gets.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/409025-dem-poll-coffman-trails-dem-opponent-by-11-in-colorado

CO-6 Normington Petts (for End Citizens United): Crow (D) 49, Coffman (R-inc) 38

[Person Man]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/409025-dem-poll-coffman-trails-dem-opponent-by-11-in-colorado

CO-6 Normington Petts (for End Citizens United): Crow (D) 49, Coffman (R-inc) 38

He was like the turd that just wouldn't flush. Coffman is a floater. Good Riddance!

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL-15: Spano 49, Carlson 46

https://www.scribd.com/document/389826568/FL-15-Polling-Memo-Ross-Spano-vs-Kristen-Carlson-September-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns

[Brittain33]

FL-15: Spano 49, Carlson 46

https://www.scribd.com/document/389826568/FL-15-Polling-Memo-Ross-Spano-vs-Kristen-Carlson-September-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns

Bold Blue Campaign = (D) poll based on their website. This is Likely R IMO.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1046753358701309952

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1046753358701309952

Heh I forgot about this guy...

[kph14]

The Harkey campaign released a new internal showing her down 45-43 (After having her up 46-43 in July). They also blasted the NYT Poll (https://www.harkeyforcongress.com/faulty-new-york-times-poll-greatly-over-sampled-democrats-in-ca-49-while-new-harkey-poll-shows-race-is-a-dead-heat/) for “oversamping“ Democrats not acknowledging that Siena actually down weighted democratic responses  because of that.