2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[libertpaulian]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

I honestly think Kavanaugh will wound the Dems slightly in Senatorial races, make a negligible difference (no difference at all, really) in governor and state legislative races, and slightly boost House candidates.

I don't think it's crazy to say it can be a mix of all three.

That's a reasonable take. Nuance was certainly not to be found on this subject until recently though.

Honestly, all politics is 1) nuance, and 2) local. 

[Yank2133]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

Not me.

I have said from the start that it will do nothing either way. R's got their seat and D's are motivated by Trump already.

[Devout Centrist]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

You're not exactly batting a thousand, either

[IceSpear]

I like how the D hacks have seamlessly transitioned from "Kavanaugh will help the Democrats" to "Kavanaugh will have no effect" to "Kavanaugh will hurt the Democrats but only temporarily."

You're not exactly batting a thousand, either

Hey, nobody's perfect. But I've been doing pretty well in 2018 so far.

- Was one of the very few people to predict Johnson would beat Pawlenty
- Predicted Balderson by 1 point
- Predicted Bredesen would eventually collapse/Blackburn would surge
- Predicted Stitt would surge
- Predicted NH would get closer after the primary
- Predicted AZ would get closer after the primary
- Predicted Nelson would eventually recover in FL while many people were freaking out over July polls
- Predicted Corey Stewart winning the primary and that he wouldn't be losing by 25-30+ points in the general
- Predicted TN-Gov was safe R despite muh July Emerson polls which snookered many others
- Predicted Whitmer eventually surging even when the polls were still "close" and many thought it was a toss up
- Predicted Dems would easily win CT despite Muhloy
- Predicted Scott Taylor's scandal wouldn't matter
- Predicted Duncan Hunter's scandal wouldn't matter
- Predicted Jaime Herrera Beutler being vulnerable when every pundit had it safe R
- Predicted Ojeda's chances were overrated
- Called Scott Wallace being a weak candidate on primary day
- Called Lamb being strongly favored after he won the special election while all the pundits had it as "pure toss up"
- Was highly skeptical of the "muh Dem lockout" media narrative in California

Of course, there were some misses too, but you can't win em all.

[Devout Centrist]

Lmao! Okay Icy, why are you so on edge today?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

[IceSpear]

Lmao! Okay Icy, why are you so on edge today?

This reply is strange. I don't see what's funny about it or why you think I'm "on edge." I was just responding to your comment about my batting average with objective facts. Projection I guess?

[IceSpear]

I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

Multiple polls have shown Heitkamp and Bredesen collapsing. Kavanaugh is pretty clearly, at minimum, hurting the Dems in the crimson red states.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

Multiple polls have shown Heitkamp and Bredesen collapsing. Kavanaugh is pretty clearly, at minimum, hurting the Dems in the crimson red states.

I've only seen one poll showing Bredesen far behind, he definitely hurt Heitkamp though.

[Virginiá]

Is it really clear Kavanaugh is hurting Heitkamp? Wasn't she already behind? That race has barely gotten polled and so it's kind of hard to assign cause to the movement we've seen. It's possible the race moved against her months ago and continued moving further against her and would have regardless of Kavanaugh.

I'm not against the idea that this debacle hurt her, but the "evidence" of it is lacking, as far as I am concerned.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m sorry the the evidence that Kavanaugh has killed the blue wave isn’t strong l. It’s more or less based on the Fox senate polls which are hardly different from their last batch pre-Ford and a clickbait NPR article about a poll in which the dems had a 9+ lead with LV and 6+ with RV

Multiple polls have shown Heitkamp and Bredesen collapsing. Kavanaugh is pretty clearly, at minimum, hurting the Dems in the crimson red states.

Heidi was viewed as in trouble since July and the polls in Bredesen case are the Fox poll which had him down 3 a week before the CNN poll had him up 5 and this Yougov poll which has Marsha up by more than any poll (including SurveyMonkey) has had her.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Time for the monthly "Dems in Disarray" moment.

Kanye West endorsed Trump, black unemployment is lowest in history,what do blacks have to lose?

#DemsInDisarray

[IceSpear]

Is it really clear Kavanaugh is hurting Heitkamp? Wasn't she already behind? That race has barely gotten polled and so it's kind of hard to assign cause to the movement we've seen. It's possible the race moved against her months ago and continued moving further against her and would have regardless of Kavanaugh.

I'm not against the idea that this debacle hurt her, but the "evidence" of it is lacking, as far as I am concerned.

FOX is an apples to apples comparison. It had Cramer +4 before the Kavanaugh drama heated up and Cramer +12 afterwards.

And I don't see why it wouldn't hurt her. After all, it's a divisive and polarizing issue that turned into a media circus for weeks. Both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular in North Dakota. So it would only make sense for it to hurt her.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.
 

Yea, in less than 2 weeks people moved on from Trump being labelled a unindicted conspirator, while his long time lawyer and fixer plead guilty to very serious crimes. Voters are complete morons, with the attention span of a peanut.

[IceSpear]

My gut tells me we'll be getting a few "not so great for democrats" polls this weeks. Blue avatars will come around and gloat and red avatars will get demoralized. Probably a good week to take off of this forum in all honesty. Really considering doing just that myself.

All that I really care about is the final 3 weeks, polling-wise. I like seeing Democrats up big obviously, but I have learned after 3 years being on here that polls constantly go up and down in the run-up to an election, but the final few weeks tends to show a lasting shift that is far more important than whatever was happening prior to that.

I think Republicans are getting a little too giddy too fast over the Kavanaugh situation though. I don't know exactly what effect it will have, but I do know it's more likely to peter out than leave a deep mark on the election. 2016's crazy series of events in September/October is a more recent example of why that is.

Even ignoring 2016, all you have to do is look at the Manafort/Cohen drama. The entire thing fell out of the American conscious in under 2 weeks.
 

Yea, in less than 2 weeks people moved on from Trump being labelled a unindicted conspirator, while his long time lawyer and fixer plead guilty to very serious crimes. Voters are complete morons, with the attention span of a peanut.

Lol. Actually, you're right. We should stop insulting goldfish by comparing their attention span to that of the average American voter.

[Xing]

I think it's very easy to react quickly to sudden movements in the GCB, but it's not like the Democrats have tanked from +9 to +3. They've dropped about a point, and while that could be significant, there are going to be several stories in the news to distract the voters with the attention span of a goldfish peanut. I'm sure that if polls start to show Democrats up by double digits and only down by 1-2 in ND or TX next week or the week after, we'll be hearing about the Democrats winning 53 Senate seats and gaining 60 seats in the House. This forum is lot like the NYT needle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good God this thread is bad.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yea, in less than 2 weeks people moved on from Trump being labelled a unindicted conspirator, while his long time lawyer and fixer plead guilty to very serious crimes. Voters are complete morons, with the attention span of a peanut.

Lol. Actually, you're right. We should stop insulting goldfish by comparing their attention span to that of the average American voter.

For me, it goes too far to compare the attention span of the average American voter to a peanut. Peanuts are capable of growing into a peanut plant, which is animate activity. A better comparison would be to compare the attention span of voters to the attention span of a rock or another such inanimate object, which is not capable of any activity whatsoever.

[Brittain33]

Good God this thread is bad.

Give it a few days to regress to the mean.

[IceSpear]

Yea, in less than 2 weeks people moved on from Trump being labelled a unindicted conspirator, while his long time lawyer and fixer plead guilty to very serious crimes. Voters are complete morons, with the attention span of a peanut.

Lol. Actually, you're right. We should stop insulting goldfish by comparing their attention span to that of the average American voter.

For me, it goes too far to compare the attention span of the average American voter to a peanut. Peanuts are capable of growing into a peanut plant, which is animate activity. A better comparison would be to compare the attention span of voters to the attention span of a rock or another such inanimate object, which is not capable of any activity whatsoever.

Honestly, our country would probably be in better shape if we just let rocks make our decisions for us.

[Figueira]

Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

I noticed they made a sudden drop maybe 6 or 7 days ago then have hardly budged since - despite the bogus IBD poll.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

I mean, the plateauing is because there haven't been as many polls in the last few days of the week. Don't be surprised if you see either another big drop or a big bump (hoping for the latter...) tomorrow, as Monday usually brings out a slew of new polls.

[Blair]

I don’t understand the obsession with pointing out that people are wrong- as long as you post relatively good quality analysis it’s not an issue. We’ve got what 50+ races where the outcome really isn’t that clear.

We’re just people endlessly talking about politics- of course we’ll get it wrong regularly.

[Virginiá]

Interestingly Democrats in all of 538's metrics (FWIW) made a big drop and have since plateaued. I wonder where things will go from here.

I mean, the plateauing is because there haven't been as many polls in the last few days of the week. Don't be surprised if you see either another big drop or a big bump (hoping for the latter...) tomorrow, as Monday usually brings out a slew of new polls.

Sweet jesus, I forgot about that.

Put it into my veinsssssss