2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Florida Man for Crime]

Nate Cohn mentioned that PA-07 and NJ-03 would be the first polls of theirs to find more Democratic-friendly results than Monmouth, so it's not a surprise that Monmouth found a tie in VA-07.

Yeah, I don't see the surprise/shock that some posters seem to be expressing at this poll. We knew from the Siena/NYT poll (which had Brat +4, 47-43) that it was a close and competitive race. That is very close to this poll (47-47 standard LV model), and can easily be explained just by MOE alone. Then on top of MOE, you have differences in methodology and the plausible possibility that there has been a bit of movement to Spanberger as her name ID continues to go up in the time between the 2 polls. This poll shouldn't change anyone's view of the race who was aware of the NYT/Siena poll.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

[Politician]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

Tossup, but gun to my head McGrath wins.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Generic Ballot Florida-

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

Democrats had a 3-point lead last Marist poll in the state.

[Ebsy]

Generic Ballot Florida-

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

Democrats had a 3-point lead last Marist poll in the state.

Large enough margin to put 3-5 seats seriously in play.

[Antonio the Sixth]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

Isn't POR a partisan pollster?

[GeorgiaModerate]

KY-6 Pulse Opinion Research: Barr (R-inc) 47, McGrath (D) 47

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/KentuckyTermLimitsPollResults2018.pdf

Isn't POR a partisan pollster?

They're the ones who do the actual polling for Rasmussen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, so it being tied sounds like good news for McGrath.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

[ON Progressive]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

Honestly, that's better than I expected.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

Honestly, that's better than I expected.

Yeah, this is pretty good.

[libertpaulian]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

Yeah, Dems need to stop trying to make CA-21 happen.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

Yeah, Dems need to stop trying to make CA-21 happen.

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

[Devils30]

Trump approval 48/43 there despite losing 40/56 in 2016. I bet the final margin is inside 4%.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

MN-2 SUSA: Craig (D) 48, Lewis (R-inc) 45

https://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-craig-leads-lewis-by-narrow-margin/5084609/

[Florida Man for Crime]

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

It is because no Democrats participate in the political process enough to actually vote in CA-21, much less run for office.

[Florida Man for Crime]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

OK, there is actually one interesting thing in the crosstabs...

Cox actually leads Valadao among voters that were contacted by cell phone (41% of the sample) by 42%-39%.

Valadao leads with the 59% of the sample that was contacted by landline by 58%-38%.

The thing is, it seems at least offhand to me like 41% of the sample to be cellphone may be a little low. In the NYT/Siena, polls, the percent of the samples contacted by cell phone is generally much higher than that.

And in particular, Latinos are more likely to be cell-phone only, so this could have an especially large impact in this district.

So if there is some way for Valadao to potentially lose, it could be from the polls underestimating turnout from cell-phone only voters. Remember that Latinos are not easy to poll, especially in a district like CA-21.

[ON Progressive]

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

It is because no Democrats participate in the political process enough to actually vote in CA-21, much less run for office.

It’s sad because this is true. There’s British parliament constituencies that had a higher total vote count in 2017 than CA-21 did in 2014. British parliament constituencies are also way smaller in population than American CDs, keep in mind.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

538 keeps a record of all these polls.

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I wish one our Entrepreneurial and Innovative Atlas Members could find a way to develop some type of spreadsheet to track all of these house polls into one database....

IDK, it doesn't seem like there is currently a mechanism to include a variety of polls (Internal/External) topline numbers, hyperlinks to official or semi-official sources, etc....

Surely that would be a service that would be valuable to internal and external customers alike, and make it much easier to examine these numbers ourselves, rather than being heavily influenced by various pundits elsewhere, that sometimes might have less valuable contributions, and in other cases where we might be able to compliment the data that they provide?

Something to think about....

Maybe Atlas already has that feature, but it requires some sort of subscription fee?

If not, that might be a Forum improvement, which might convince some leaners to chip in a few $$$  for access to such a database?

538 keeps a record of all these polls.

If it's good enough for 538, then it could be even better on Atlas....

Plus, if we have a "voluntary donation" that allows one to access not just "current data" but also "historical data" that is a sales pitch right there, and maybe even justify a potential minor increase in the price point to the core institutional consumers of Atlas.... (Academia and possibly even the Media Sector).

538 is but a fleeting glimpse in time and space, and despite some of the awesome stuff that we saw starting roughly back in '08, is essentially destined to confine political analysis as a "side gig" to shop other stuff they do, such as sports statistics, etc....

Atlas will outlast 538 by a 100 Years, even with an "Old Skool" web template....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas is more interesting has better data/takes on politics for 21 months out of 24, but as soon as election season kicks in, 538 is miles ahead. I think specialization works to both's advantage.

[IceSpear]

MonmouthPoll
‏ @MonmouthPoll
22m22 minutes ago

VIRGINIA CD07 POLL: US House election
All potential voters:
  
@SpanbergerVA07 (D) 47
@DaveBratVA7th (R) 42
  
Likely voters:
Standard model - Spanberger 47 / Brat 47
Dem-surge model - Spanberger 48 / Brat 45
    
#VA07 #Midterms2018

Great poll! Hopefully Abby gives the Brat a good spanking in November!

[Politician]

CA-21 SUSA: Valadao (R-inc) 50, Cox (D) 39

https://abc30.com/politics/political-insider--valadao-leads-cox-in-new-poll/4339229/

But but but candidate quality doesn't matter in wave years! Fundamentals + the national environment make this Lean D!

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

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