🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[DavidB.]

I already suspected AfD would outperform the pre-election polls at least in Hessen: it is one of their best Western states and if they are at about 21-22% nationally, they cannot be a lot lower there. In Bavaria it's more complicated given the fact that quite a significant number of voters opt for AfD federally but for FW on the state level.

The heinous attack on Chrupalla may have netted them some additional swing voters too.

[lfromnj]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support

Doesn't explain Bavaria though as it is the one right wing government in Germany.

[RGM2609]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support

Well, it depends on how you define being "right-wing". CDU is, uncontestably, a conservative (i.e. preserve society as it is) party, now even led by someone who thinks Merkel was too moderate. And I am pretty sure that out of every AfD voter, maybe 10% would be right-wing in any meaningful way.

Look at how they are doing in Bavaria, running against the strongest FW in the country, against the most right-wing branch of the Union. It is not a "right-wing" option their voters were missing.

[kelestian]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support

Doesn't explain Bavaria though as it is the one right wing government in Germany.

I think federal-level politics influenced it. During Merkel era, CSU was a part of governing coalition, voters remember that.

[kelestian]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support

Well, it depends on how you define being "right-wing". CDU is, uncontestably, a conservative (i.e. preserve society as it is) party, now even led by someone who thinks Merkel was too moderate. And I am pretty sure that out of every AfD voter, maybe 10% would be right-wing in any meaningful way.

Look at how they are doing in Bavaria, running against the strongest FW in the country, against the most right-wing branch of the Union. It is not a "right-wing" option their voters were missing.

And what exactly CSU did during their time in power on federal level? Regarding immigration and everything else?

Same with CDU - they are doing relatively ok, but again, a lot of people don't believe their changed rhetoric, we all could see what they were doing while having Chancellorship.

[DavidB.]

Well, it depends on how you define being "right-wing". CDU is, uncontestably, a conservative (i.e. preserve society as it is) party, now even led by someone who thinks Merkel was too moderate. And I am pretty sure that out of every AfD voter, maybe 10% would be right-wing in any meaningful way.

Look at how they are doing in Bavaria, running against the strongest FW in the country, against the most right-wing branch of the Union. It is not a "right-wing" option their voters were missing.

Closing down all nuclear power plants to build the country full of wind turbines (with skyrocketing electricity costs) and letting in more than 1 million immigrants every year since 2012 isn't very much "preserve society as it is" policy. Many ordinary voters feel the difference. Under Merkel the CDU shifted from conservative to centrist, leaving the electoral space on the right wide open. From that perspective, AfD's big breakthrough was always a matter of time.

[Cassius]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support

Well, it depends on how you define being "right-wing". CDU is, uncontestably, a conservative (i.e. preserve society as it is) party, now even led by someone who thinks Merkel was too moderate. And I am pretty sure that out of every AfD voter, maybe 10% would be right-wing in any meaningful way.

Look at how they are doing in Bavaria, running against the strongest FW in the country, against the most right-wing branch of the Union. It is not a "right-wing" option their voters were missing.

And what exactly CSU did during their time in power on federal level? Regarding immigration and everything else?

Same with CDU - they are doing relatively ok, but again, a lot of people don't believe their changes rhetoric, we all could see what they were doing while having Chancellorship.

Given that they’ll inevitably end up in government with some combination of the Ampel parties (presuming the current coalition fails to get re-elected), it’s perfectly reasonable that voters dissatisfied with the present government and the trajectory German politics has taken since the Merkel era would distrust the CDU’s willingness or ability to actually change anything.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1711144103876915237?t=ElxsPEiZeQM07Md-u6...

[DavidB.]

I'd be very interested in seeing an FW vs. AfD map. Wonder what the pattern would be like.

[rob in cal]

Does a CDU which goes back to Kohl era immigration stance or toward that direction end up absorbing most of AFD voters? Probably a lot but would lose some voters as well who wouldn’t like such a move.

[Sir Mohamed]

It almost feels like Scholz becomes Sunak 2.0 in reverse. Totally DOA and he opposition just has to aviod gaffes and wait for the next election to happen. The 2021 was probably just a fluke and won't be repeated despite incumbency.

A lot of that seems to come from inner coalition divisions, what differs from the UK situation. I'm not that much into daily federal politics, though it appears to me that's because FDP wants to be the opposition with the govt. On the other hand, if they just concede more to SPD and Grune, it backfires as well since their voters are more sympathic to the Union parties.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

A lot of that seems to come from inner coalition divisions, what differs from the UK situation. I'm not that much into daily federal politics, though it appears to me that's because FDP wants to be the opposition with the govt. On the other hand, if they just concede more to SPD and Grune, it backfires as well since their voters are more sympathic to the Union parties.

There is a social-liberal tradition, though Lindner is more on the pro-CDU/CSU side. The FDP as it is has to decide whether it wants to continue the coalition or draw the same conclusion they've drawn after all the other election defeats - to be even more prominent in the coalition and even more aggressive in promoting their positions. It hasn't helped them so far, quite the contrary.

That being said, while I'm certainly not a fan of Wagenknecht, she should just go on and start her party. If there's an unconstructive protest vote, I'd prefer it to go to a party which is not a right-wing extremist.

[jaichind]

It seems for the 3 states going to the polls in 2024 (Brandenburg, Sachsen, Thüringer) the latest polls have AfD in the lead in all three.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It almost feels like Scholz becomes Sunak 2.0 in reverse. Totally DOA and he opposition just has to aviod gaffes and wait for the next election to happen. The 2021 was probably just a fluke and won't be repeated despite incumbency.

This is not a very good comparison at all. Germany and the UK are in completely different situation and Scholz and the SPD have absolutely no common dynamics with Sunak and the Tories.

The SPD is only one of two parties, along with the CDU, that have a majority favorable rating (not voting intention, but favorability):


It is true that supermajorities disapprove of Scholz's political work so far....


...but he also is one of the top politicians in Germany who still has a positive personal favorability rating:


The Tories have completely wrecked the UK after 13 years in power, and Sunak comes off as the typical elitist Conservative that everyone hates. Scholz and the SPD are unpopular now, halfway through the electoral term, but this is because of the bad overall situation and government infighting.

The SPD competes for lower-income voters and blue collar workers with the CDU and AfD, and this is especially true in the East. Along with middle-aged voters and rural/small city voters, these groups (all of which overlap heavily, by the way) are the most fluid in their voting preferences; the ultimate swing voters. These are also the voters under the most economic pressure right now. Compare this to the Greens, Linke, and AfD, who all have a hardcore, dedicated base of support, but also hardened opposition to them.




I think all of this shows the problem facing the SPD: many people have a neutral opinion of them, which means that during a good election, they have a large potential voter pool, but these same potential voters have no attachment to the SPD, so they could easily abandon the party for others if they are dissatisfied or some other party is more compelling in the moment (Greens, CDU, AfD).

People don't feel strongly about Scholz either way. They're annoyed at his current performance but he doesn't generate the personal dislike that politicians like Merz do. And although Germany has a parliamentary system, Chancellor candidates' personal favorability/likability does still play a strong role in voting.

If things continue to be bad in 2025, then yes, the SPD will likely suffer a crushing defeat, possibly even falling below their 2017 result and as far down as their 2019 EU result, yes, I agree. But if things improve in the next two years, then the SPD could enter the election with a strong message of delivering on its promised agenda, enacting critical reforms, shielding households and the economy from financial collapse, and leading the country.

Last night, Saskia Esken was asked whether "the traffic light policy reached the wallets of many citizens, but not their hearts". I think that's a very valid question. The current government has had a lot of success in terms of bullet-point policy, where we have a massive energy price relief package, a big jump in the minimum wage, faster-than-inflation tax cuts, expansion of benefits, the wildly popular Deutschlandticket, and finally equalizing pensions between East and West after 35 years. But why are Scholz, the SPD, and incumbent government not able to reach citizens emotionally and give them a feeling of security in the face of change?

The "Scholz-o-Mat" style of governing worked during the Merkel years, when Germans were uninterested in hearing much from the government and things were quiet in Europe. But it doesn't work now, with Ukraine, energy prices, an even bigger wave of asylum seekers & refugees, housing costs, etc.

The SPD will have its federal party congress at the start of December, and the Jusos have said they want to make themselves heard. But honestly, I think that's precisely what ISN'T needed. The "Jusosification" of the SPD over the past 5 years has led to a lot of good economic policies being enacted, such as turning back to the left on economics and finally disowning and repealing Hartz IV, but also entails pouring gasoline onto the flames of the culture war. The Jusos-style of campaigning primarily seems to be about saying "RACIST RACIST RACIST" when it comes to the AfD and CDU, throwing out culture war buzzwords like feminism, trans rights, anti-fascism, etc. Describing yourself as feminist is great, but it doesn't fix Germany's horribly deficient childcare system, which prevents women from easily rejoining the workforce and helping solve the labor shortage. The new Self-Determination Act is good but most people don't care either way about the trans debate (indeed, thank GOD Germany has avoided this entire debate unlike the UK!), especially when supermarket prices increase by 20% and your energy bills double. Calling the CDU fascist or the new Nazi Party because they want changes to the asylum system just makes you look childish; how did it work out in the Berlin election earlier this year?

(/rant)

People are under a lot of pressure regarding cost of living and the SPD messaging on this has been terrible. Even when they talk about the good things that have been done, it comes off as a laundry list and not really a comprehensive strategy, and either way gets drowned out by everything else. And then many of these helpful policies are delivered late, after much debate and after anxiety has already set in.

And now, highly-visible tent cities for refugees start popping up and your local mayor (who might even be SPD!) are loudly sounding the alarm about their capacities, yet the Traffic Light government has still dragged its feet on even acknowledging the existence of the crisis and has been even slower in reaching out the CDU to propose a cross-bloc solution. Scholz proposed working with the CDU-governed states to get a majority in the Bundesrat for a solution on asylum, but it is a terrible idea to try to bypass the federal CDU, even if you have personal distaste for Merz.

I think Scholz gets a lot of unfair criticism, but a lot of it is also deserved. And as the Chancellor, you are the one ultimately in charge. He definitely needs to change his governing style, but I don't think the SPD is going to knife him anytime soon. There's not that much anger at him personally, just frustration, and even if they did ditch him, who would take over as Chancellor...? Nobody wants this in the current situation.

The first order of business should be working with the CDU to enact a comprehensive and long-term solution to asylum policy, like what happened in 1992. 72% of Hessians and 83% of Bavarians wanted a fundamentally different asylum policy, so this means that even many Traffic Light voters want changes. It doesn't mean turning your backs totally on your responsibilities, but the current system isn't working and its overwhelmed. Then, you need to do more on the economics front. That was actually the most important issue for voters in both states. People and businesses are anxious.

Like I said earlier, if things turn around, then the SPD could actually weather the storm and do okay in 2025. In fact, I think people are underrating this possibility. We could definitely still see a Chancellor Scholz after 2025 as well! But what complicates this, is that another Traffic Light government is probably not in the cards. So I don't know what constellation we could see, if it includes the SPD at all...

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I managed to find age-based crosstabs for both Hessen and Bayern:


The Union parties continue to show their strength amongst younger voters, as is the norm in Germany. The Greens predictably hold up amongst young voters as well, but the most notable difference is the shift amongst younger voters as well to the AfD. Before this, the AfD tended to do best amongst the middle-aged (especially those in their 40s and 50s), but were weak amongst the 60+ crowd and the under 35 demographic. So, having such gains across the age spectrum is part of their Western breakthrough.


Here's some interesting voter surveys from the Hessen election: https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/landtagswahl/analyse-der-hessen-wahl-2023-wie-es-zum-wahlergebnis-kam-und-was-es-bedeutet-v1,ltw23-wahl-analyse-100.html

"Satisfaction with the federal government"
(zufrieden = satisfied)


"Which topic plays the biggest role for your election choice?"
21% Economic developments
20% Climate & energy
18% Migration
15% Education
12% Internal security
8% Housing poliyc
3% Transportation policy


"Current conditions in Germany give rise to...(anxiety/confidence)"


"We need a fundamental change in asylum and refugee policy, so that fewer people come to us"
*72% of all agree, with even a majority of SPD voters and almost half of Green voters


"Satisfaction with the state government"
*interestingly, despite an almost 50-50 topline result, this was a relatively status-quo election


"Most competent governor candidate" and "strongest leader"


"Competence of the CDU on..."
Economic policy
Education policy
Asylum & immigration policy
Social justic
Affordable housing
Climate & environmetal policy
*interesting that the CDU loses on economics, but gains on everything else


"Competence of the SPD on..."
Social justice
Affordable housing
Education policy
Asylum & refugee policy
*the crash in trust on social justice and affordable housing, combined with the CDU gaining in these topics, is pretty dire for the Hessen SPD


"Competence of the Greens on..."
Climate & environment
Transportation
Asylum & refugees
Education policy
Social justice
Affordable housing
Economics
*massive losses across the board for them as well


"Election choice resulted from....(disappointment/enthusiasm)"
*again showing that many AfD and FW voters are not ideologically aligned with them, but rather frustrated voters


"Views on the FDP"
53% - find it good that they oppose the Greens in climate policy
50% - find it good if they remain in the state parliament
50% - they have not kept their promises in the federal government
34% - compromise too much in the federal government
40% - Christian Lindner is a good Finance Minister


"With whom should the CDU build a government?"
36% of all voters believe with the Greens
45% of all voters believe with the SPD
52% of CDU voters with the Greens
44% of CDU voters with the SPD

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

One last post for today, promise

Regarding the CDU/CSU Chancellor question for 2025

The way I see it there are three possible scenarios:

• Merz asserts his claim to the candidacy for chancellor as CDU chairman and prevails, whether with or without resistance, despite his unpopularity among the general population (68% of Germans think he is not suitable for the chancellorship), and in the CDU/CSU itself (at least half of Union voters think he is not suitable)
• Söder tries again. Although he lost a few votes in yesterday's elections, he still stands confidently. The CSU can now demand more concessions from the CDU, and they can now say that the CSU represents more of Germany because the CSU's vote share held up, and Bavaria represents a good 15% of the German population. He can score points with his relative popularity and a high level of recognition, but he is also someone who divides people, both inside and outside of the party. Many in the CDU are still bitter about him publicly undermining Laschet in 2021. Some on the right may also be suspicious of him, because he also changes positions often, e.g. regarding the nuclear shutdown.
• Wüst has announced a claim to the Chancellery, he is significantly more popular than Merz, has ruled the largest federal state for four years without scandals or incidents, and with the Greens, a coalition with which is probably inevitable for the CDU at the federal level. He is a team player and not a splitter. His supporters include Rhein and Günther, who both won their elections VERY confidently, and he himself was also able to gain votes in 2022.

Honestly, I think Merz is the loser here. He is unpopular, and he has been around for so long that opinions of him are unlikely to change. He puts his foot in his mouth too often, comes off as an elitist, and also has been forced to backtrack on pronouncements. As we have seen this year, he has also lost authority in the party. That so many CDU state governors have felt comfortable openly criticizing and contradicting him is a sign that his own party does not respect him. He will probably continue on as party leader, but I think him running for Chancellor candidate would end up in humiliation for him.

There is obviously still 1.5 years left until the "K-Question" will be answered, but I think it will come down to Hendrick Wüst as the candidate of a "modern", environmentally-conscious, and liberal-conservative CDU vs. Markus Söder as the candidate of a traditional, conservative, and populist CSU.

Both wings are in strong positions, so this will be a very interesting selection process.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

You might want to add yesterday's big winner Boris Rhein. Proven vote-getter and also looks like a chancellor.

[Sir Mohamed]

It almost feels like Scholz becomes Sunak 2.0 in reverse. Totally DOA and he opposition just has to aviod gaffes and wait for the next election to happen. The 2021 was probably just a fluke and won't be repeated despite incumbency.

This is not a very good comparison at all. Germany and the UK are in completely different situation and Scholz and the SPD have absolutely no common dynamics with Sunak and the Tories.

The SPD is only one of two parties, along with the CDU, that have a majority favorable rating (not voting intention, but favorability):


It is true that supermajorities disapprove of Scholz's political work so far....


...but he also is one of the top politicians in Germany who still has a positive personal favorability rating:


The Tories have completely wrecked the UK after 13 years in power, and Sunak comes off as the typical elitist Conservative that everyone hates. Scholz and the SPD are unpopular now, halfway through the electoral term, but this is because of the bad overall situation and government infighting.

The SPD competes for lower-income voters and blue collar workers with the CDU and AfD, and this is especially true in the East. Along with middle-aged voters and rural/small city voters, these groups (all of which overlap heavily, by the way) are the most fluid in their voting preferences; the ultimate swing voters. These are also the voters under the most economic pressure right now. Compare this to the Greens, Linke, and AfD, who all have a hardcore, dedicated base of support, but also hardened opposition to them.




I think all of this shows the problem facing the SPD: many people have a neutral opinion of them, which means that during a good election, they have a large potential voter pool, but these same potential voters have no attachment to the SPD, so they could easily abandon the party for others if they are dissatisfied or some other party is more compelling in the moment (Greens, CDU, AfD).

People don't feel strongly about Scholz either way. They're annoyed at his current performance but he doesn't generate the personal dislike that politicians like Merz do. And although Germany has a parliamentary system, Chancellor candidates' personal favorability/likability does still play a strong role in voting.

If things continue to be bad in 2025, then yes, the SPD will likely suffer a crushing defeat, possibly even falling below their 2017 result and as far down as their 2019 EU result, yes, I agree. But if things improve in the next two years, then the SPD could enter the election with a strong message of delivering on its promised agenda, enacting critical reforms, shielding households and the economy from financial collapse, and leading the country.

Last night, Saskia Esken was asked whether "the traffic light policy reached the wallets of many citizens, but not their hearts". I think that's a very valid question. The current government has had a lot of success in terms of bullet-point policy, where we have a massive energy price relief package, a big jump in the minimum wage, faster-than-inflation tax cuts, expansion of benefits, the wildly popular Deutschlandticket, and finally equalizing pensions between East and West after 35 years. But why are Scholz, the SPD, and incumbent government not able to reach citizens emotionally and give them a feeling of security in the face of change?

The "Scholz-o-Mat" style of governing worked during the Merkel years, when Germans were uninterested in hearing much from the government and things were quiet in Europe. But it doesn't work now, with Ukraine, energy prices, an even bigger wave of asylum seekers & refugees, housing costs, etc.

The SPD will have its federal party congress at the start of December, and the Jusos have said they want to make themselves heard. But honestly, I think that's precisely what ISN'T needed. The "Jusosification" of the SPD over the past 5 years has led to a lot of good economic policies being enacted, such as turning back to the left on economics and finally disowning and repealing Hartz IV, but also entails pouring gasoline onto the flames of the culture war. The Jusos-style of campaigning primarily seems to be about saying "RACIST RACIST RACIST" when it comes to the AfD and CDU, throwing out culture war buzzwords like feminism, trans rights, anti-fascism, etc. Describing yourself as feminist is great, but it doesn't fix Germany's horribly deficient childcare system, which prevents women from easily rejoining the workforce and helping solve the labor shortage. The new Self-Determination Act is good but most people don't care either way about the trans debate (indeed, thank GOD Germany has avoided this entire debate unlike the UK!), especially when supermarket prices increase by 20% and your energy bills double. Calling the CDU fascist or the new Nazi Party because they want changes to the asylum system just makes you look childish; how did it work out in the Berlin election earlier this year?

(/rant)

People are under a lot of pressure regarding cost of living and the SPD messaging on this has been terrible. Even when they talk about the good things that have been done, it comes off as a laundry list and not really a comprehensive strategy, and either way gets drowned out by everything else. And then many of these helpful policies are delivered late, after much debate and after anxiety has already set in.

And now, highly-visible tent cities for refugees start popping up and your local mayor (who might even be SPD!) are loudly sounding the alarm about their capacities, yet the Traffic Light government has still dragged its feet on even acknowledging the existence of the crisis and has been even slower in reaching out the CDU to propose a cross-bloc solution. Scholz proposed working with the CDU-governed states to get a majority in the Bundesrat for a solution on asylum, but it is a terrible idea to try to bypass the federal CDU, even if you have personal distaste for Merz.

I think Scholz gets a lot of unfair criticism, but a lot of it is also deserved. And as the Chancellor, you are the one ultimately in charge. He definitely needs to change his governing style, but I don't think the SPD is going to knife him anytime soon. There's not that much anger at him personally, just frustration, and even if they did ditch him, who would take over as Chancellor...? Nobody wants this in the current situation.

The first order of business should be working with the CDU to enact a comprehensive and long-term solution to asylum policy, like what happened in 1992. 72% of Hessians and 83% of Bavarians wanted a fundamentally different asylum policy, so this means that even many Traffic Light voters want changes. It doesn't mean turning your backs totally on your responsibilities, but the current system isn't working and its overwhelmed. Then, you need to do more on the economics front. That was actually the most important issue for voters in both states. People and businesses are anxious.

Like I said earlier, if things turn around, then the SPD could actually weather the storm and do okay in 2025. In fact, I think people are underrating this possibility. We could definitely still see a Chancellor Scholz after 2025 as well! But what complicates this, is that another Traffic Light government is probably not in the cards. So I don't know what constellation we could see, if it includes the SPD at all...

Wow, thanks for that huge effort post. I enjoyed reading it.

I guess it's way too early to talk 2025 anyway, as nobody even in early 2021 predicted SPD would win (or ever take the chancellorship again).

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

In Bayern, the CSU received about 0.2% less than during the 2018 vote.

But in terms of seats, it remained unchanged.

Because the overall size of the Landtag declined by 2 seats, the CSU actually has more power compared to 2018 because their share of seats increased.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My buest guess:

Bayern

35% CSU (-2)
16% Greens (-2)
16% AfD (+6)
14% FW (+2)
  8% SPD (-2)
  4% FDP (-1)
  1% Linke (-2)
  1% BP
  1% ÖDP
  4% Others

CSU-FW will continue.

Hessen

32% CDU (+5)
19% AfD (+6)
17% Greens (-3)
15% SPD (-5)
  5% FW (+2)
  4% FDP (-3)
  3% Linke (-3)
  5% Others

CDU-Greens will continue.

My guess wasn't so bad after all.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Maps:



In Bayern, CSU, FW and AfD are parties of the rural areas.

Greens, SPD and FDP are parties of the urban areas (Großstädte).

In Hessen, the same - but the SPD is about as strong (or weak) in rural areas as it is in urban areas. The Linke is also a more urban party.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I'd be very interested in seeing an FW vs. AfD map. Wonder what the pattern would be like.

See below (or now, above).

[Keep Calm and ...]

Some more maps


https://twitter.com/minionofmidas/status/1711261161595732081

https://twitter.com/minionofmidas/status/1711425863483351091

[President Johnson]

You might want to add yesterday's big winner Boris Rhein. Proven vote-getter and also looks like a chancellor.

As for 2025, I would much keep a much closer eye on Daniel Günther and Hendrick Wüst. Günther in particular in my view would be a formidable candidate for chancellor. He's just 50, won in a landslide last year and entered a coalition with the Greens despite the fact the FDP was also possible. The question would only be whether he can appeal to enough centrist swing voters without losing too much ground on the right flank. Wüst might be better for that, but he also governs with the Greens and a sound communicator. Not sure though whether Merz would forgo a candidacy, since party leader usually are seen as natural candidates (often referred to as "erstes Zugriffsrecht"). He repeatedly said that Merkel stepping down as party leader in 2018, three years before leaving the chancellorship, was a huge mistake and that a CDU chancellor should always be party leader as well.

Meanwhile, Söder remains an open question. His performance wasn't poor enough just to write him off, though cracking 40% would have put him in a better position for another pitch.

[RGM2609]

Are CSU/FW in Bavaria and CDU/Greens in Hesse still the most likely coalitions, or is it possible we see a change in one of these states?