🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Oryxslayer]

Why is there no AFD ?

Got suspended and all their voters went to BIW.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is still no official result, but this the last ARD projection from shortly after midnight:


The state of Bremen

SPD 29.8% (+4.9)
CDU 25.7% (-1.0)
Greens 11.9% (-5.5)
Left 11.1% (-0.2)
BIW 9.5% (+7.1)
FDP 5.2% (-0.7)


The city of Bremen only

SPD 29.8%
CDU 26.4%
Left 11.9%
Greens 11.7%
BIW 7.5%
FDP 5.2%


The city of Bremerhaven only

SPD 30.0%
BIW 22.4%
CDU 21.4%
Greens 13.0%
Left 6.1%
FDP 5.1%


So, basically the Greens lost massively to the SPD due to the recent heating debate, and their rather unpopular local lead candidate in this election. And the AfD lost almost all their votes to their local copycat BIW due to the former not being on the ballot (the BIW is actually a distant descendant of the Schill Party of the 2000s, while their lead candidate in this election was in fact a founding member of the AfD who left the party in '15).

That the city of Bremen is a (rare Western) Left Party stronghold and that Bremerhaven is a hotbed of right-wing populism is pretty standard for the state IMO.

[President Johnson]

Why is there no AFD ?

Got suspended and all their voters went to BIW.

BIW ("Bürger in Wut", "citizens in rage") isn't entirely identical to the AfD though. While some former AfD members switched to BIW in recent years, they're mostly from the early phase of the party and belonged to the "moderate" wing which plays no role anymore. BIW sees themselves between CDU and AfD in the political spectrum and more of a national conservative and economically liberal party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why is there no AFD ?

Got suspended and all their voters went to BIW.

BIW ("Bürger in Wut", "citizens in rage") isn't entirely identical to the AfD though. While some former AfD members switched to BIW in recent years, they're mostly from the early phase of the party and belonged to the "moderate" wing which plays no role anymore. BIW sees themselves between CDU and AfD in the political spectrum and more of a national conservative and economically liberal party.

While the BIW is ultimately just too small (with their political activities pretty much limited to Bremen) to have attracted a full-blown Höcke Nazi wing, it also used to be a member of the now defunct European Alliance for Freedom, alongside the FPÖ, PVV, Vlaams Belang, Front National, Lega Nord, and Sweden Democrats.

BIW expansion beyond Bremen never seemed to be an option, considering most right-wing voters (especially in the East) seem to prefer the "real deal" of full Putin apologism, anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories, and occasional  antisemitism the AfD exhibits.

[buritobr]

There is still no official result, but this the last ARD projection from shortly after midnight:


The state of Bremen

SPD 29.8% (+4.9)
CDU 25.7% (-1.0)
Greens 11.9% (-5.5)
Left 11.1% (-0.2)
BIW 9.5% (+7.1)
FDP 5.2% (-0.7)


The city of Bremen only

SPD 29.8%
CDU 26.4%
Left 11.9%
Greens 11.7%
BIW 7.5%
FDP 5.2%


The city of Bremerhaven only

SPD 30.0%
BIW 22.4%
CDU 21.4%
Greens 13.0%
Left 6.1%
FDP 5.1%


So, basically the Greens lost massively to the SPD due to the recent heating debate, and their rather unpopular local lead candidate in this election. And the AfD lost almost all their votes to their local copycat BIW due to the former not being on the ballot (the BIW is actually a distant descendant of the Schill Party of the 2000s, while their lead candidate in this election was in fact a founding member of the AfD who left the party in '15).

That the city of Bremen is a (rare Western) Left Party stronghold and that Bremerhaven is a hotbed of right-wing populism is pretty standard for the state IMO.

But we could see in the polls that the Linke in the west is not the party of the working-class, it is a party of very educated people.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is there no AFD ?

Got suspended and all their voters went to BIW.

BIW ("Bürger in Wut", "citizens in rage") isn't entirely identical to the AfD though. While some former AfD members switched to BIW in recent years, they're mostly from the early phase of the party and belonged to the "moderate" wing which plays no role anymore. BIW sees themselves between CDU and AfD in the political spectrum and more of a national conservative and economically liberal party.

I mean in this instance it's literally people gravitating to the (somewhat obscure) ticket that is closest to their true preferences after their desired party was removed from the ballot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did the Bremen AfD get suspended?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How did the Bremen AfD get suspended?

Irregularities in the nomination process.

Apparently, the AfD state chapter in Bremen is essentially split into two different factions with two competing  executive committees and consequently two lists of candidates.

Instead of picking one of the two lists as legitimate the election authority in Bremen simply told the AfD to go f**k themselves, ruling the AfD's bid invalid altogether based on the argument that it constitutes a violation of election law to hand in two competing lists for the same party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How did the Bremen AfD get suspended?

Irregularities in the nomination process.

Apparently, the AfD state chapter in Bremen is essentially split into two different factions with two competing  executive committees and consequently two lists of candidates.

Instead of picking one of the two lists as legitimate the election authority in Bremen simply told the AfD to go f**k themselves, ruling the AfD's bid invalid altogether based on the argument that it constitutes a violation of election law to hand in two competing lists for the same party.

AfD: phew I'm not banned for extremism
*hands in two lists of candidates*
AfD: this isn't how I expected to get banned
Court: you got banned for extreme interpretations of the electoral law!

[Kabam]

This looks bad, they could even win in the run-off.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1667944621442301954

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am going to become The Joker.

Berlin, having already redone its 2021 state election this February, might have to redo its Bundestag election: https://www.t-online.de/region/berlin/id_100190132/berlin-landeswahlleiter-zur-bundestagswahl-wiederholung-worst-case-.html

Among others, the parliamentary groups of the CDU/CSU and AfD , who are striving for a more comprehensive or complete repetition of the election, have lodged an election scrutiny complaint. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe still has to decide on this.

"We are preparing for the worst-case scenario: a complete repeat election to the Bundestag in Berlin because we simply do not know how the Federal Constitutional Court will decide," said Bröchler. "If we were only prepared for the smaller number of polling stations and there were a complete repeat election, then we would have enormous organizational problems," said the administration scientist.

Together with his office and the districts, he is preparing to hold the repeat election after only 60 days as soon as the Federal Constitutional Court has made its decision. Then not only the polling stations and ballot boxes and enough ballot papers have to be available, but also, for example, enough poll workers.

[Oryxslayer]

I am going to become The Joker.

Berlin, having already redone its 2021 state election this February, might have to redo its Bundestag election: https://www.t-online.de/region/berlin/id_100190132/berlin-landeswahlleiter-zur-bundestagswahl-wiederholung-worst-case-.html

Among others, the parliamentary groups of the CDU/CSU and AfD , who are striving for a more comprehensive or complete repetition of the election, have lodged an election scrutiny complaint. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe still has to decide on this.

"We are preparing for the worst-case scenario: a complete repeat election to the Bundestag in Berlin because we simply do not know how the Federal Constitutional Court will decide," said Bröchler. "If we were only prepared for the smaller number of polling stations and there were a complete repeat election, then we would have enormous organizational problems," said the administration scientist.

Together with his office and the districts, he is preparing to hold the repeat election after only 60 days as soon as the Federal Constitutional Court has made its decision. Then not only the polling stations and ballot boxes and enough ballot papers have to be available, but also, for example, enough poll workers.

INB4 this causes Linke lose 37 seats

[President Johnson]

I am going to become The Joker.

Berlin, having already redone its 2021 state election this February, might have to redo its Bundestag election: https://www.t-online.de/region/berlin/id_100190132/berlin-landeswahlleiter-zur-bundestagswahl-wiederholung-worst-case-.html

Among others, the parliamentary groups of the CDU/CSU and AfD , who are striving for a more comprehensive or complete repetition of the election, have lodged an election scrutiny complaint. The Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe still has to decide on this.

"We are preparing for the worst-case scenario: a complete repeat election to the Bundestag in Berlin because we simply do not know how the Federal Constitutional Court will decide," said Bröchler. "If we were only prepared for the smaller number of polling stations and there were a complete repeat election, then we would have enormous organizational problems," said the administration scientist.

Together with his office and the districts, he is preparing to hold the repeat election after only 60 days as soon as the Federal Constitutional Court has made its decision. Then not only the polling stations and ballot boxes and enough ballot papers have to be available, but also, for example, enough poll workers.

INB4 this causes Linke lose 37 seats

I actually doubt this would cause other members lose their mandates. However, Linke might soon lose their status as official Bundestag faction due to the ongoing feud with Russian propagandist MP Sahra Wagenknecht. Rumors are out she and some of her allies are leaving the party and splitting it up.

[President Johnson]

Disgusting. Even if you think the Scholz government isn't great, it's no reason to vote for a far-right party in a local election.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1673024100938252289

[Middle-aged Europe]

Disgusting. Even if you think the Scholz government isn't great, it's no reason to vote for a far-right party in a local election.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1673024100938252289

There is apparently a possibility - I don't know how likely - that Sesselmann might not become Landrat after all.

As a curiosity of German law, the chief executive of a German district has the legal status of a member of the civil service ("Wahlbeamter") rather than that of an elected official.

The Thuringian state law governing the election of such local-level public servants states that persons who can't guarantee a continuous adherence to the principles of the federal and state constitution are ineligible for the office. Therefore the State Administration Office of the Thuringian interior ministry, the agency repsonsible for overseeing the civil service at the local level, has launched a formal examination of Sesselmann's adherence to the constitution.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-06/robert-sesselmann-demokratie-ueberpruefung-thueringen

[Middle-aged Europe]

Media reports about a Sesselmann election volunteer appearing at an AfD campaign event wearing a t-shirt glorifying the Wehrmacht
(identified as one Daniel W. who as a soldier was at one point during the early 2000s under investigation by German military intelligence due to his ties to the violent skinhead scene in Thuringia).


https://twitter.com/KatharinaKoenig/status/1673558983112638464?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Death of a Salesman]

Disgusting. Even if you think the Scholz government isn't great, it's no reason to vote for a far-right party in a local election.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1673024100938252289

There is apparently a possibility - I don't know how likely - that Sesselmann might not become Landrat after all.

As a curiosity of German law, the chief executive of a German district has the legal status of a member of the civil service ("Wahlbeamter") rather than that of an elected official.

The Thuringian state law governing the election of such local-level public servants states that persons who can't guarantee a continuous adherence to the principles of the federal and state constitution are ineligible for the office. Therefore the State Administration Office of the Thuringian interior ministry, the agency repsonsible for overseeing the civil service at the local level, has launched a formal examination of Sesselmann's adherence to the constitution.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2023-06/robert-sesselmann-demokratie-ueberpruefung-thueringen

To save our sacred Democracy, we must abolish it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

To save our sacred Democracy, we must abolish it.

Well, as you may know, Germany's entire post-WWII constitution is built upon the principle of depriving anti-democratic forces of their ability to exploit political freedoms for their ideological goals. It's also referred to as a "defensive democracy".

That'a why the Basic Law doesn't feature direct presidential elections or national referendums as opposed to the old Weimar constitution. Same reason why Article 21 Section 2 specifically allows for the banning of political parties.

I don't know whether they will truly go through with barring Sesselmann from assuming the office in the end... I'm inclined to say that the opposite seems more likely. But maybe the intention is to show him that in theory they could if push comes to shove.

[Harlow]

AfD candidate got 42% of the vote in the first round of Nordhausen's mayoral elections, but now looks like he might lose in the second round due to a strong anti-AfD vote. Majority of the vote has been counted.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1705992436411945327?s=20

[President Johnson]

AfD candidate got 42% of the vote in the first round of Nordhausen's mayoral elections, but now looks like he might lose in the second round due to a strong anti-AfD vote. Majority of the vote has been counted.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1705992436411945327?s=20

The AfD candidate lost the race 55-45% quite handily in the end. Funny how their officials now downplay the loss as a local one after they tried to nationalize it before.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Elon Musk tried to interfere in the upcoming state elections in Bayern and Hessen:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1707758153977204846

Germany replied that they are saving lives:

https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1707783245171978250

[Logical]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Well, it certainly gets a lot of press here. And we are just a week away from major state elections in Bavaria with 13 million people and Hesse with 7 million people. That's a quarter of Germany voting next Sunday. If he's not interfering in our elections, why would he then post "Is the German public aware of this?" Why would an American post this? I think he has a far-right agenda that extends to Europe.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Here is what the polls have to say about Bavaria and Hesse - which are voting next Sunday:

Bayern




Hessen

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

When you look at the charts and changes from the previous state elections in both states, it's pretty clear that voters are going to punish the governing parties in Berlin (SPD-Greens-FDP) and reward far-right parties such as the AfD and to some extend anti-establishment parties such as the Free Voters (in Bavaria). The SPD here in Hessen with Nancy Faeser also did herself no favor by calling for refugee voting rights, a position which is only popular within a small part of the party. It is much more popular with the Green Party voters, which is the main reason the SPD will continue losing voters (along with the Berlin government being unpopular) to the Greens.