🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Mike88]

Tagesschau ARD live feed:

12 minutes until polls close and the first predictions.

[President Johnson]

Here we go:





My predictions were pretty good. Turnout slightly down.

[Mike88]

As expected, with no major surprises. At least in Germany, opinion polling continues to have a good track record.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

this is so stupid

[President Johnson]

this is so stupid

I'm certainly biased here, but more generally, I think both CDU in Hesse and especially the CSU are in power way too long. It's not healthy when one party rules so long, even if democratically elected. A change for at least one term would be a good thing, even for the CSU.

[Germany1994]

I'm certainly biased here, but more generally, I think both CDU in Hesse and especially the CSU are in power way too long. It's not healthy when one party rules so long, even if democratically elected. A change for at least one term would be a good thing, even for the CSU.
[/quote]

These results must be pretty hard to swallow, right??

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1711050786413674730?t=yQjL7zECv4uG-aIWPI...

[Germany1994]

The results of the AfD aren´t pleasant, but I´m a bit relieved they´re far away of 20 %.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The results of the AfD aren´t pleasant, but I´m a bit relieved they´re far away of 20 %.

If they are getting 14-16% in the west, they are probably pretty close to 20-21% nationally.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1711050233411502546?t=89NUhV5MAJpjQW_9Q2...

[President Johnson]

Projection as of now:










I actually wonder whether Nancy Faeser can remain Interior Minister at this point. The result is pretty much atrocious, especially for such a high-profile cabinet members. Reminds me of Norbert Röttgen in 2012. He was fired as Environment Minister by Merkel after losing the NRW state election in a landslide.

[jaichind]

AfD might come in second place in both states. 

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results:

https://landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/eingangsmeldung.html

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

[Logical]

At this rate of decrease CSU might finally lose power in 30 years.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Results:

https://landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/eingangsmeldung.html

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

No results in Bayern yet, but Hessen has 3000 of 7000 polling stations counted.

AfD is over 20%, but it is presumably rural areas and no big city polls yet.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Results:

https://landtagswahl2023.bayern.de/eingangsmeldung.html

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

No results in Bayern yet, but Hessen has 3000 of 7000 polling stations counted.

AfD is over 20%, but it is presumably rural areas and no big city polls yet.

Postal votes tend to come last for both socio-economic reasons and copying right-wing American talking points, AfD tend to vote in person.

In Bavaria results seem to be only published when the full electoral district/constituency is in.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

There was also a runoff election for mayor in the East-German city of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, a city with once 80.000 people, but now just 40.000. It is in Saxony-Anhalt, in a coal mining and chemical plants area. A lot of people left after the 1980s.

The CDU candidate won the runoff today by 54% to 46% against the AfD candidate.

https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/dessau/bitterfeld/stichwahl-oberbuergermeister-bitterfeld-wolfen-106.html

[Germany1994]

If trends continue the SPD could end up with ZERO direct seats in Hesse. 

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

German posters - would it be fair to say that the AfD would be polling a fair bit higher in Bavaria were it not for the existence of FW as a viable option, or are their voting bases too distinct for that to be the case?

You are correct: the Freie Wähler are a protest party and the AfD would otherwise receive a better result. But it's also the CSU that is appealing to AfD voters. These 3 parties compete for the so-called Stammtisch-vote (populist right-wing pub or beer tent voters).

[President Johnson]

AfD might come in second place in both states. 

That's almost a given at this point. Sadly.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1711091020400636302?t=vqlW_DkhlUWL-3kJ7W...

Seems likely that the AFD will outperform the exit poll.

[jaichind]

What a hammering of the Federal ruling parties

[RGM2609]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

[Germany1994]

Here´s a good link for live results:

https://wahlen.hessen-ltw23.23degrees.eu/wk/00000000000/overview

For the first time ever since it´s creation the SPD lost the Northern consituencies Kassel-County II  and Schwalm-Eder I to the CDU!!

[kelestian]

I know it's already an established fact, but the high support for this cesspool of a party in Germany of all places gives me chills.

They are terrible, but establishment parties are to blame. After Merkel, there are practically none right parties, but the right-wing electorate is always there, and they need someone to vote for. Maybe FW can cut some of potential AfD support