🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Middle-aged Europe]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Please define "interference" and then lay down how and why this doesn't meet the criteria.

[Logical]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Please define "interference" and then lay down how and why this doesn't meet the criteria.

Obtaining and disseminating private documents that can influence an election result through illegal means is election interference. Exercising your individual right to free speech to comment on another nation's political issues or endorse some party is not election interference. Melon Muskoid is an important person but he does not speak for anyone but himself. When/if foreign governments or officials do it that would be election interference.

[MaxQue]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Please define "interference" and then lay down how and why this doesn't meet the criteria.

It's not interference, but it should be counted as an AfD electoral expense.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Muskoid is a complete moron but this isn't election interference.

Well, it certainly gets a lot of press here. And we are just a week away from major state elections in Bavaria with 13 million people and Hesse with 7 million people. That's a quarter of Germany voting next Sunday. If he's not interfering in our elections, why would he then post "Is the German public aware of this?" Why would an American post this? I think he has a far-right agenda that extends to Europe.

Wow you guys literally use "American" as a slur. Plenty of people from other countries are also talking about this and you don't seem to care.

[rob in cal]

Ironically Musk has given in to his inner billionaire and has also called for a big increase in legal immigration into the US, probably disappointing many on the right who might have thought he was a restrictionist.

[Kabam]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The tragic events in Israel and Gaza have overshadowed the fact that tomorrow, important state elections will be held here in Germany.

I wonder if the terrorist attacks will have an impact on the voting... which is almost impossible to measure at this late point in time (4 in ten voters have already cast their ballots early via post).

If patrys benefit from this escalation, it could be the AfD or the Left.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

[Germany1994]

The tragic events in Israel and Gaza have overshadowed the fact that tomorrow, important state elections will be held here in Germany.

I wonder if the terrorist attacks will have an impact on the voting... which is almost impossible to measure at this late point in time (4 in ten voters have already cast their ballots early via post).

If patrys benefit from this escalation, it could be the AfD or the Left.

I strongly doubt this will have any impact, foreign policy is rarely a deciding issue in German elections, not on the federal level and even less at the state level.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

The tragic events in Israel and Gaza have overshadowed the fact that tomorrow, important state elections will be held here in Germany.

I wonder if the terrorist attacks will have an impact on the voting... which is almost impossible to measure at this late point in time (4 in ten voters have already cast their ballots early via post).

If patrys benefit from this escalation, it could be the AfD or the Left.

I strongly doubt this will have any impact, foreign policy is rarely a deciding issue in German elections, not on the federal level and even less at the state level.

You are right, it shouldn't have a measurable impact.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

My buest guess:

Bayern

35% CSU (-2)
16% Greens (-2)
16% AfD (+6)
14% FW (+2)
  8% SPD (-2)
  4% FDP (-1)
  1% Linke (-2)
  1% BP
  1% ÖDP
  4% Others

CSU-FW will continue.

Hessen

32% CDU (+5)
19% AfD (+6)
17% Greens (-3)
15% SPD (-5)
  5% FW (+2)
  4% FDP (-3)
  3% Linke (-3)
  5% Others

CDU-Greens will continue.

[rob in cal]

If FDP falls out of both Landtags will that create any complications or pressure on federal FDP leadership?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Gregor Gysi told the Frankfurter Rundschau on Friday that Sahra Wagenknecht's plans for a new party appear to be in the final stages.

Likely, she would first form an association, and then a political party would emerge from this. Already, seven people from Wagenknecht's circle of supporters founded an association called "BSW - For Reason and Justice", which was registered at the Mannheim district court on September 26th.

No one knows what the "BSW" means, but it could easily stand for "Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht" ("Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht").

If this really does go through, several members of the Die Linke parliamentary group would leave. Currently, Die Linke has 39 members elected to the Bundestag. If this number falls below 37, Die Linke would lost its parliamentary group status, along with the money, positions and influence of the small opposition party.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

If FDP falls out of both Landtags will that create any complications or pressure on federal FDP leadership?

(Disclaimer: I am an SPD'er, so obviously I am biased against the FDP here. I of course try to be objective as much as possible, but still)

Almost certainly, yes. The question is, what form will it take, and could it lead to Lindner resigning as party lead while staying on as Finance Minister? I don't think he will resign as party leader to be honest, in part because he did lead them to two strong federal elections, but also it seems like no one else wants to be FDP party leader at the moment.

On September 19th, the FDP had its internal parliamentary group leadership election. It was widely considered a rout for the social liberal (i.e. pro-Traffic Light) wing, and a victory for the neoliberal wing.

The question is, where does the party go from here? Its previous strategy of fighting the Greens and blowing up the government coalition's consensus culture didn't really work (whether they get kicked out of both state parliaments or not), all it did was intensify hatred against both them and their partners. Their new parliamentary group leadership has already declared "no new expansion of social benefits" in the current parliamentary term, which will certainly lead to more conflict with the SPD and Greens, (who are already very annoyed with the FDP).

But will save them going forward? I don't think so. And they probably don't want to pull out of government just halfway through, because they probably wouldn't be forgiven and also would have to forfeit power.

So what are they gonna do? Personally, I think they are just screwed. If you approve of the Traffic Light government, you probably would vote SPD or Green; why vote for the party that keeps blowing up the government? If you disapprove of the Traffic Light government, you probably would vote for the CDU or AfD; why vote for the party that keeps propping up the government? At this point the FDP's supporters are its core base plus some social liberals who stay on, which puts them dangerously close to the 5% barrier.

Like I said several months ago, the FDP negotiated themselves a bad deal (they didn't negotiate enough concessions), but were also unlucky in having the Ukraine situation blow up everything in German politics and the economy.

I think they might just have to ride it out until 2025 like they did previously from 2010-2013 when they bounced around the 5% barrier for 3.5 years until they got ejected from the Bundestag.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

By the way, apparently the FDP has suggested that a Germany coalition (CDU-SPD-FDP) replace the current CDU-Green government in Hessen if they survive. This would however be completely unnecessary, even in the event that the FDP surpasses the 5% threshold, because CDU-SPD would have a comfortable majority on their own.

It will be interesting to see if the CDU continues to work with the Greens after the election, since their national party has been getting hammered for governing with the Greens while rhetorically opposing them. But the state CDU has had a good 10 years of working with the Greens; despite a 1 vote majority, politics have been quiet in Hessen and the working relationship is good, and it hasn't hurt the CDU electorally. Usually state governments do their own thing and don't take orders from the national party, but maybe the CDU will ditch the Greens if they get a better offer from the SPD.

CDU-Green still the most likely coalition after the election, but the chances of CDU-SPD are underrated in my opinion. Boris Rhein is the current Minister-President of Hessen, but only since May 31st, 2022. A CDU-Green would be merely a continuation of his predecessor, while CDU-SPD could offer a new start, especially on the topics of internal security, immigration, transportation, etc. The Hessen SPD has been out of power for 25 years, so I think there is a deep desire in the state SPD to get back into power, even if it means making the CDU a really good deal. We could see a reverse situation like the Berlin election this spring, where the Berlin CDU gave the SPD almost everything in order to get back into power after 22 years, but this time the Hessen SPD gives everything to the CDU to get back into power.

We'll see...

[Oryxslayer]

If FDP falls out of both Landtags will that create any complications or pressure on federal FDP leadership?

But will save them going forward? I don't think so. And they probably don't want to pull out of government just halfway through, because they probably wouldn't be forgiven and also would have to forfeit power.

I mean in other political systems, this would be the obvious answer if the party internally has already turned against the traffic light. Force snap elections, align yourself with with the type of voter who would be happy for snap elections, and promise to only enter government without the SPD - which itself wouldn't that big a promise looking at polling. Especially if Wagenknecht kicks Linke out but doesn't get in herself.  But this is Germany and I don't think things exactly work like that in this arena.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

In the Bayern state election today, the local voting law gives the voters more powers compared to Budnestag elections: a voter can vote for a district candidate directly and cast a party vote. This is the same as for the Bundestag. But the major difference is that in Bayern, if your district candidate does not win the seat, your vote is not wasted. In Bayern, the district vote and party vote gets added up and as a result both votes determine the overall number of proportional seats for a party. Not only that, even the party vote in Bayern gives more power to voters: unlike in Bundestag elections, voters can vote for a candidate that is placed somewhere down on the party list. If a lot of voters are voting for this candidate, this candidate can be elevated up the list and elected. It's a sort of preferential voting. On the other hand, Hessen's voting system is very similar to the Bundestag elections. There is a 5 percent-threshold in both states.

The last polling stations close at around 18 o'clock. Results are expected around midnight, but trends will be available by 19 or 20 o'clock.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

From the Bayrischer Rundfunk:

Postal voting record is emerging

Bavaria is voting - but not just today, but actually for a good month now: Anyone who would rather vote in peace at home has been able to apply for postal voting documents in the past few weeks. According to the state returning officer, almost 38 percent of eligible voters had ballot papers issued with postal voting documents ten days ago - significantly more than at the same time before the 2018 state election (29.5 percent).

This marks a record postal vote in a Bavarian state election. In Munich, for example, according to estimates by the district administration department, up to 60 percent of those eligible to vote could make use of the option to vote by post. Everyone else has time to go to the polling station today from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.

[Kabam]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

I am pretty sure that at least Aiwanger wins his Stimmkreis in Landshut.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

I am pretty sure that at least Aiwanger wins his Stimmkreis in Landshut.

He might win in his Landshut constituency - if the polling trends turn into reality (CSU down slightly, Freie Wähler up slightly).

19 of the 91 constituencies were within 10 percent in the previous election:

https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de/Bewerber%20mit%20Erststimmenmehrheit.html

If you sort by "Abstand" (winning margin) in the right column, you can see the closest districts.

Landshut was CSU +2.8 and Aiwanger (FW) second.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

The question is, where does the party go from here? Its previous strategy of fighting the Greens and blowing up the government coalition's consensus didn't really work (whether they get kicked out of both state parliaments or not), all it did was intensify hatred against both them and their partners. Their new parliamentary group leadership has already declared "no new expansion of social benefits" in the current parliamentary term, which will certainly lead to more conflict with the SPD and Greens, (who are already very annoyed with the FDP).

In my opinion, the FDP doesn't get nearly enough blame for the rise of the AfD which they have helped tremendously with their hardcore obstructionism, but sadly, they will come out of this election day with the wrong conclusions, as always.

[Cassius]

German posters - would it be fair to say that the AfD would be polling a fair bit higher in Bavaria were it not for the existence of FW as a viable option, or are their voting bases too distinct for that to be the case?

[JimJamUK]

German posters - would it be fair to say that the AfD would be polling a fair bit higher in Bavaria were it not for the existence of FW as a viable option, or are their voting bases too distinct for that to be the case?

Not a German poster but absolutely they would. There was a very clear trend in the 2021 federal election where the AFD made major losses which were heavily correlated with the rise of FW support. The latter are a less controversial right wing protest vote option, so it make sense.

[Germany1994]

Already voted more than three hours ago, was quite busy at the polling place.

In my hometown Regensburg turnout is pretty high, at 2 pm it was already 60,1 % if you include postal ballots. In 2018 it was 70,5 % in the end, so there´s a good chance that we´ll see a higher turnout at least where I live. 

[President Johnson]

I'm kind of late, but here are my last minute predictions:

Bavaria

36.5% CSU
16.0% FW
15.5% Greens
15.5% AfD
  7.0% SPD
  3.5% FDP
  1.5% Linke

CSU-FW will continue.


Hesse

34.5% CDU
17.0% Greens
16.5% AfD
14.5% SPD
  4.0% FDP
  3.5% FW
  2.0% Linke

CDU-Greens will continue.