🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Yeahsayyeah]

Why does Bremen have 4 year cycles instead of 5 like every other state. Come to think of it, why does most state governments get 5 year terms when the federal government has 4.

Four years was the standard for state elections, too, until the mid-nineties. Then their was an urge of CDU/CSU and SPD alike too prolong the periods for state parliaments in the name of "elections cost money" and "giving governments more time to govern and let's have less 'permanent campaigning'".

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2023/AFSPRAES/ve/index.html

Berlin climate referendum is failing, thank goodness 🙏 Wonder how many more of these pointless and poorly-thought out emotional votes we'll have to suffer through

[President Johnson]

Frankfurt am Main has elected a new mayor: SPD candidate Mike Josef defeats CDU challenger Uwe Becker in a close 51.7% to 48.3% runoff election. In the first round, Becker came in first with 34% of the vote over Josef at 24%. The Greens narrowly missed the runoff and came in third at 22%. Apparently most of their voters flocked to the SPD candidate.

The election was held a year early after corrupt SPD Mayor Peter Feldmann, tainted by several scandals, was recalled in November with 95% of the vote. Mayors in Hesse are elected for a six-year term.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1640053287746519040

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Somebody somewhere on the Internets (I don't know the original source) created this very useful table with the results of the district councils (BVV) and the mathematically-possible coalition options

Minor update on this: Die Linke will lose both of its last two district mayors, the first in Pankow, where a Jamaica-coalition looks set to be formed with a Green district mayor, and in Lichtenberg, where a Kenya-coalition looks set to elect a CDU district mayor.


The SPD and CDU agreed to form district governments together in Spandau and Reinickendorf under CDU district mayors. Similar thing looks set to happen in Marzahn-Hellersdorf.

In Mitte and Tempelhof-Schoeneberg, the SPD and Greens will likely invite Die Linke to form a district government with them under Green mayors.

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg and Treptow-Köpenick will almost certainly see the Red-Red-Green majorities continue.

Steglitz-Zehlendorf will likely see a Traffic Light coalition continue, under a Green mayor.

Only Neukölln and Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf remain uncertain of their next coalition and next district mayors.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Right on schedule, the negotiations in Berlin were finished today and will be presented tomorrow at 11.00 in the morning.

As written earlier, the SPD has succeeded in pushing through the vast majority of its demands, even points that were considered unlikely, such as the minimum wage being automatically adjusted for inflation going forward, buying out GASAG's operations in energy supply, a housing strategy that includes both new construction as well as a fund of 4 billion EUR for buying out existing buildings, and (most controversially for the CDU), the implementation of a state penalty tax if companies do not create enough apprenticeship positions.

Over the weekend, the two parties also finalized a 10 billion EUR climate fund, to be spent in three areas: in the areas of transport, renovation and energy. If implemented, this fund would be the largest fund among the German states on a per capita basis. In transport, the money is to be spent on electrification of the BVG's fleet. In energy, money is to be spent on solar panels and geothermal energy. In renovation, there is an accelerated program for existing properties.

The CDU will receive the assignments of 1.) Digitization & Administrative Modernization, 2.) Finance, 3.) Education, Youth and Family, 4.) Culture & Europe, 5.) Environment, Transport, and Climate Protection, and 6.) Justice & Consumer Protection. The SPD will receive 1.) Urban Development, Building & Living, Monument Protection, 2.) Interior, 3.) Business, 4.) Science, Health, Care, and Equality, 5.) Work & Social Affairs, Diversity, and Anti-Discrimination.

As part of the CDU and SPD emphasizing the modernization of the state bureaucracy in light of the total breakdown of the Bürgeramt offices over the past few years, Digitization & Administrative Modernization is a new separate Senate assignment and no longer under the Interior.

However, the specific politicians who take over the individual portfolios will only be published if the membership vote of the SPD is successful. However, there is wide speculation that Stefan Evers will take over as Finance Senator. Franziska Giffey herself is speculated to either take over the Interior department or Urban Development.


Some more details about the negotiations directly from the negotiators in the SPD and CDU themselves showed that they managed to work together really well; even the left-wing negotiators in the SPD said it went well:

"The mood was initially bad, but that quickly thawed out," says a leading CDU negotiator. According to the CDU, the Greens negotiators could not promise until the end that they would be able to implement what was discussed in the talks. The CDU swung in the direction of the SPD.

Even the negotiators from the CDU-critical left wing of the party report something similar: Many debates with the Left and the Greens were deadlocked, it was often no longer about solutions, but about being right. "Honestly, also with us," says a Social Democrat. Now it's more about arguments. "I find it almost terrible myself, but it went really well," said a negotiator from the left wing of the party.

It is really telling that both the CDU and the SPD's left-wing felt the same way about Linke and the Greens, and that the BVG apparently seems to have a really bad relationship with the Greens in particular, which even to me is quite shocking. The CDU-SPD agreed on other topics that you would think originated out of Red-Red-Green, such as street tree planting programs for streets and the city center, as well as recreational spots like concrete steps leading down to the Spree River, more safe cycle paths, more "park and ride" lots by S-Bahn stations, more frequent public transit services in the periphery, intelligent traffic light systems, and continuing the subsidized public transit tickets introduced last October.


So far, I have yet to find much discussion of areas where the CDU outmanoeuvred the SPD, either in the press or from political opponents of Black-Red (the Left and Greens have entirely focused on repeating the mantra that it is a "regressive coalition", while the Jusos just keep calling Wegner a Nazi, etc.), but there was really only one specific area that the CDU managed to force through over the SPD's objections: that classes on religions will become mandatory from Year 7 in schools. Both parties agreed, however, that there should be fewer exams in schools.

I'll have to look through the entire contract once it's released, but so far I am leaning strongly towards voting "yes" once the SPD member ballots are sent out. This is basically an SPD government program, but under a CDU mayor.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Right on schedule, the negotiations were finished today and will be presented tomorrow at 11.00 in the morning.

As written earlier, the SPD has succeeded in pushing through the vast majority of its demands, even points that were considered unlikely, such as the minimum wage being automatically adjusted for inflation going forward, buying out GASAG's operations in energy supply, a housing strategy that includes both new construction as well as a fund of 4 billion EUR for buying out existing buildings, and (most controversially for the CDU), the implementation of a state penalty tax if companies do not create enough apprenticeship positions.

Over the weekend, the two parties also finalized a 10 billion EUR climate fund, to be spent in three areas: in the areas of transport, renovation and energy. If implemented, this fund would be the largest fund among the German states on a per capita basis. In transport, the money is to be spent on electrification of the BVG's fleet. In energy, money is to be spent on solar panels and geothermal energy. In renovation, there is an accelerated program for existing properties.

However, the allocation of departments between the SPD and CDU will only be published if the membership vote of the SPD is successful.


Some more details about the negotiations directly from the negotiators in the SPD and CDU themselves showed that they managed to work together really well; even the left-wing negotiators in the SPD said it went well:

"The mood was initially bad, but that quickly thawed out," says a leading CDU negotiator. According to the CDU, the Greens negotiators could not promise until the end that they would be able to implement what was discussed in the talks. The CDU swung in the direction of the SPD.

Even the negotiators from the CDU-critical left wing of the party report something similar: Many debates with the Left and the Greens were deadlocked, it was often no longer about solutions, but about being right. "Honestly, also with us," says a Social Democrat. Now it's more about arguments. "I find it almost terrible myself, but it went really well," said a negotiator from the left wing of the party.

It is really telling that both the CDU and the SPD's left-wing felt the same way about Linke and the Greens, and that the BVG apparently seems to have a really bad relationship with the Greens in particular, which even to me is quite shocking. The CDU-SPD agreed on other topics that you would think originated out of Red-Red-Green, such as street tree planting programs for streets and the city center, as well as recreational spots like concrete steps leading down to the Spree River, more safe cycle paths, more "park and ride" lots by S-Bahn stations, more frequent public transit services in the periphery, intelligent traffic light systems, and continuing the subsidized public transit tickets introduced last October.


So far, I have yet to find much discussion of areas where the CDU outmanoeuvred the SPD, either in the press or from political opponents of Black-Red (the Left and Greens have entirely focused on repeating the mantra that it is a "regressive coalition", while the Jusos just keep calling Wegner a Nazi, etc.), but there was really only one specific area that the CDU managed to force through over the SPD's objections: that classes on religions will become mandatory from Year 7 in schools. Both parties agreed, however, that there should be fewer exams in schools.

I'll have to look through the entire contract once it's released, but so far I am leaning strongly towards voting "yes" once the SPD member ballots are sent out. This is basically an SPD government program, but under a CDU mayor.

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

And it gets even better: despite the CDU winning 28.2% of the vote and 52 seats vs. the SPD's 18.4% of the vote and 34 seats, the Senate of Berlin (i.e. the governing administration) will be split equally between the two parties, and both parties will receive 5 Senators each (not including the Mayor, who will be Kai Wegner in such a constellation).

This is how badly the CDU wants to govern: they are willing to do 95% of what the SPD wants, so long as they get the Mayor's office and control over some departments. Much like Angela Merkel's last 8 years as Kanzlerin.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

And it gets even better: despite the CDU winning 28.2% of the vote and 52 seats vs. the SPD's 18.4% of the vote and 34 seats, the Senate of Berlin (i.e. the governing administration) will be split equally between the two parties, and both parties will receive 5 Senators each (not including the Mayor, who will be Kai Wegner in such a constellation).

This is how badly the CDU wants to govern: they are willing to do 95% of what the SPD wants, so long as they get the Mayor's office and control over some departments. Much like Angela Merkel's last 8 years as Kanzlerin.

Well, they might be lucky to get such a result again.
So I guess it makes sense for them to take what they can get.

[Oryxslayer]

Some unhappy CDU member somewhere: "This is the worst trade deal in the history of trade deals!"

And it gets even better: despite the CDU winning 28.2% of the vote and 52 seats vs. the SPD's 18.4% of the vote and 34 seats, the Senate of Berlin (i.e. the governing administration) will be split equally between the two parties, and both parties will receive 5 Senators each (not including the Mayor, who will be Kai Wegner in such a constellation).

This is how badly the CDU wants to govern: they are willing to do 95% of what the SPD wants, so long as they get the Mayor's office and control over some departments. Much like Angela Merkel's last 8 years as Kanzlerin.

Well, they might be lucky to get such a result again.
So I guess it makes sense for them to take what they can get.

That's probably the thought. I don't think anyone but maybe the negotiators understand just how dominant the swing was: Merkel's CDU did win Berlin 3 times but by 2, 4, and 4 points respectively while winning by >10 points overall.

This of course is because Berlin today is a stronghold of all three parties that align themselves to the Unions left. Two of them are large enough to be the governing parties in average circumstances. So when a "time for change" election like this comes in, the beneficiary can approach it in two broad ways. Either you get as much of the stuff that won't normally be passed rammed through cause the normal situation is likely to return, or you see your position as fleeting and precarious and need to ingratiate yourself before tackling that others stuff a ways potentially down the road. Its clear the CDU perceives itself as occupying the second position. I suspect this stems not from any type of campaigning but more from their identity as a low-floor high-ceiling big-tent party: the critical voters' past behavior suggests they will not stick with the CDU unless given reasons, but they potentially could if satisfied.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

A Syrian refugee has been elected mayor in a Swabian village.
Like many other Syrians, Ryyan Alshebl came to Germany in 2015. Now the 29-year-old with a Green party membership card is the new mayor of the 2,500-strong community of Ostelsheim in Baden-Württemberg.
He fled Syria in 2015 and is now the mayor of Ostelsheim: The Swabian village in the Calw (known for the KSK) district elected Ryyan Alshebl as the new town hall chief on Sunday with an absolute majority of 55.41 percent of the votes, as the municipality announced in the evening.

The 29-year-old ran for election as an independent party. Privately, however, he is a member of the Greens. He describes the experiences during the election campaign as “overwhelmingly positive”.

At the age of 21, Alshebl fled his hometown of Suwayda in southern Syria. He has been working in the administration of the Althengstett town hall for seven years now. As mayor, Alshebl now intends to move to nearby Ostelsheim, he said.

Alshebl is probably the first Syrian mayor in the region. According to the municipal council of Baden-Württemberg, there have not yet been any other applicants with Syrian roots for a mayoral office. In the election on Sunday, the 29-year-old prevailed against the non-party candidates Marco Strauss and Mathias Fey.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The CDU-SPD governing contract has been released: https://www.morgenpost.de/bin/bmo-238061059.pdf

Basically no major changes from the previous reports, no major surprises either. It really is the SPD programme, just painted with the color black.

If even half of this is accomplished, or at least set in motion over the next 3.5 years, it will be good for Berlin and an extraordinary accomplishment in this perpetually gridlocked city.

I think the CDU and SPD will actually try very hard to deliver on their promises, as both of them really don't want the next 3.5 years to be an electoral gift to the Greens. To their luck, they may also find that the districts, now with their much more cooperative alliances, will act as less of an impediment to the Senate's policies as they have been over the past 10 years.

[President Johnson]

The CDU-SPD governing contract has been released: https://www.morgenpost.de/bin/bmo-238061059.pdf

Basically no major changes from the previous reports, no major surprises either. It really is the SPD programme, just painted with the color black.

If even half of this is accomplished, or at least set in motion over the next 3.5 years, it will be good for Berlin and an extraordinary accomplishment in this perpetually gridlocked city.

I think the CDU and SPD will actually try very hard to deliver on their promises, as both of them really don't want the next 3.5 years to be an electoral gift to the Greens. To their luck, they may also find that the districts, now with their much more cooperative alliances, will act as less of an impediment to the Senate's policies as they have been over the past 10 years.

Agreed. I was skeptical any contract would be approved by party members, but I'm relatively certain it's going to pass now. However, successful governing might pay off for CDU and Wegner in the end since most accomplishments tend to be associated with the head of government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Brandenburg is the third state where the AfD is leading in the polls. The next state election will be held in fall 2024.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

The DGB branch in Berlin praised the contract agreement between the CDU and SPD, but stopped short of outright endorsing it.

No doubt they might be spooked about the strongest shifts from the SPD and Linke to the CDU came from working class neighborhoods, and possibly also this exit poll that showed that the CDU narrowly won union members in the 2023 election (eternal caveat of MoE):

[Death of a Salesman]

The 2024 Thuringian Government Crisis

The election in Thuringia next year might cause some tension for the CDU.

In the last two polls (INSA and Wahlkreisprognose), the average is
AfD: 28
Left: 26
CDU: 18.5
SPD: 10
Green: 5.5
FDP: 5.5

These polls are both quite old and the AfD has gone up since.

A year ago, the average of those two polls was
AfD: 21.5
Left: 22
CDU: 19.5
SPD: 18
Green: 6
FDP: 6.5

If we extrapolated out those changes to next year (probably about 18 months from now), the results would be

AfD: 34.24%
Left: 28.85%
CDU: 16.48%
SPD: 5.22%
Green: 4.73%
FDP: 4.37%

The crucial thing here is that the Greens drop below the threshold (and their vote share has been dropping sharply since January in national polls, so this is pretty likely), which means that RRG drops below AfD.

Constituency seats would break down as
AfD: 26
Left: 15
CDU: 3

Therefore list seats would be
AfD: 10
Left: 15
CDU: 14
SPD: 5

For a total of
AfD: 36
Left: 30
CDU: 17
SPD: 5

The strategy the CDU used in the prior election, of abstaining and allowing RRG to outvote AfD, would no longer suffice to prevent an AfD plurality.

There are a few possibilities here.

1. The CDU could vote for a Left-led government. Only one vote is needed (assuming no CDU members vote for the AfD candidate). This would not be a popular decision among CDU members.

2. The CDU could accept AfD support for their candidate. There isn't a federal coalition to worry about now, but this is still an unpopular move with CDU voters.

3. CDU and Left could collaborate on the election of a SPD Minister President. It would be somewhat ridiculous for a party which barely managed 4th place to have that position, but it would avoid forcing CDU members to vote for a party they're unwilling to work with.


None of these are exactly easy to stomach for the various parties.

[Oryxslayer]

Bremen. The Union coming in first last time was a shock, but it didn't really matter to coalitions. This time it seems Linke's issues have caused a 1:1 transfer to the SDP - not an unsurprising development in an urban city. Also AfD not being allowed to run has just sent their voters to another kooky minor party based on the the survey's specific inquiry into their behavior.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

As of 10.00 a.m. today, 11,451 out of 18,556 Berlin SPD members have already voted, or almost 62%. Ballots must be delivered to the SPD party headquarters by this evening, with counting starting tomorrow morning, and the final result announced on Saturday afternoon.

If the members vote in favor (only a simple majority is required), then the CDU plans on ratifying the agreement at a state party conference on Monday. If both parties agree, then Kai Wegner could be elected governing mayor on Thursday the 27th.

While the SPD state leadership expects about 60% in favor, some others have suggested that the vote may come down to the wire either way.

The Left and Greens have softened their tone somewhat over the past two weeks; previously they encouraged SPD members to reject the coalition agreement, and said the door to Red-Red-Green was still open but only if Franziska Giffey and Raed Saleh were not behind said door (i.e. change of SPD party leadership). However, some of their statements since then have been a bit more demurred, saying that the door is still open and that "personnel decisions are a matter for the respective party", possibly bracing for a "No" vote from the SPD membership but that Giffey and Saleh won't resign or be overthrown.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

As of 10.00 a.m. today, 11,451 out of 18,556 Berlin SPD members have already voted, or almost 62%. Ballots must be delivered to the SPD party headquarters by this evening, with counting starting tomorrow morning, and the final result announced on Saturday afternoon.

Given it’s now Sunday, has the result been announced? Or has Berlin somehow mismanaged another election .

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

As of 10.00 a.m. today, 11,451 out of 18,556 Berlin SPD members have already voted, or almost 62%. Ballots must be delivered to the SPD party headquarters by this evening, with counting starting tomorrow morning, and the final result announced on Saturday afternoon.

Given it’s now Sunday, has the result been announced? Or has Berlin somehow mismanaged another election .

I was wrong, it was just announced this afternoon:

54.3% in favor, the agreement is ratified

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/knappe-mehrheit-beim-mitgliederentscheid-berliner-spd-stimmt-offenbar-fur-koalition-mit-cdu-9704204.html

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit closer than expected maybe?

[President Johnson]

A bit closer than expected maybe?

Not really in my opinion. I expected something like 52% to be honest, as internal opposition was pretty strong. From the Youth Wing in particular, but not only. Still kind of hurts to lose the top job after more than two decades and becoming junior partner.

I wouldn't have been surprised for the vote to fail, to be honest here. That would have been interesting.

[President Johnson]

CDU also has approved coalition agreement in Berlin via convention vote. Wegner scheduled to be elected governing mayor by the House of Deputies on April 27.

Giffey is set to become Deputy Mayor (formal title is "mayor") and senator (minister) for economic affairs. CDU meanwhile introduced their cabinet positions, among them music manager Joe Chialo as senator for cultural affairs. He hasn't served in public office before and would be the second black state cabinet member in Germany.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Seems like a decent outcome for Berlin, all things considered.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am sceptical of "grand coalitions" generally, but no this one doesn't seem so bad.

[President Johnson]

I am sceptical of "grand coalitions" generally, but no this one doesn't seem so bad.

Could be worse, yeah, though we have to see. I'd prefer a SPD-led grand coalition obviously. And it seems like that's what Giffey banks on for 2026. Whether it's going to work out or not is a completely different question though.