Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is left to post on twitter the type of conspiracy theories you'd expect to see on MAGA boomer facebook.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502744525588029449?s=20&t=awRZhsha...

Six Degrees of Ulyana Suprun. Love it!

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502723221371731976

Lol

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719711234174981?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

No way…

Yeah, I'm quite skeptical of the rumors. But, if it's being shared on twitter by reputable open source intelligence accounts, I felt it was worth sharing here.

[President Johnson]

Putin is screwed no matter what happens, and it seems his alliance with China is not going to pay the dividends he thought it would:

China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It.
Any financial lifeline that Beijing can offer Moscow involves taking on risk and won’t have the power to reverse the damage of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

To help Russia evade sanctions, China would have to offer a viable substitute to the American dollar. But Chinese money — the renminbi — is barely used outside of China. Only 3 percent of the world’s business is done using the redback. Even Russia and China conduct their trade mostly in U.S. dollars and euros.

What’s more, the risks of helping Russia avoid economic ruin may be greater for China than any possible reward. Much of China’s own economy depends on the U.S. dollar and the financial edifice that underpins it. Chinese companies are active around the globe, using the American financial system to pay employees, buy materials and make investments. China is the world’s largest exporter, and is paid for its goods mainly in dollars.

Should Beijing run afoul of the sanctions against Russia, China’s own financial stability would be put at risk at a time when its leaders have emphasized caution. And besides, the few lifelines that Chinese leaders could feasibly offer Russia would not be strong enough to help the country survive a financial blackout from the United States and its allies.

(...) criticizing sanctions is one thing. Choosing to go against the global financial order and risk inviting sanctions at home is another. Beijing has already given some indication that it isn’t willing to do the latter. The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — an investment bank that Washington sees as a World Bank rival — last week said it would put its lending to Russia and Belarus on hold over the war in Ukraine. Some Chinese banks have cut back on the financing of Russian commodities.

“Chinese banks are trying to cut their exposure to Russia,” said Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank. “You can tell that the theory of China offering a financial alternative to Russia remains questionable.”

I know Putin made clear that he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine, and install a puppet in Kiev, but China may well force him to accept an East/West division of Ukraine (and Kiev) along the Dneiper.  And that, from the Russian perspective, is being optimistic, assuming they can even control eastern Ukraine. The Chinese are getting more and more discomfited the longer this war goes on.

And we (NATO and the United States) on our part can make the legitimate Ukrainian government accept this division despite their insistence they want their whole country back including Crimea.  

Vladimir Putin is an ex-KGB agent, not an economist.

He has pretty much stopped bothering about the Russian economy for years. At this point, he doesn't even have much of a domestic policy other than mass-surveillance and repression to keep his war machine going.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1502619211750912000?s=20&t=A7OAJ_fk...

[Sorenroy]

The Kyiv Independent also has this quick blurb about a Kherson referendum, sourced to the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

FM Dmytro Kuleba: Russians plan to organize a sham ‘referendum’ in Kherson.

The Russian forces, who control the southern Ukrainian city since March 5, will try to stage a separatist referendum to create a “Kherson people’s republic,” mimicking what Russians did in eastern Ukraine with Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014.

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/fm-dmytro-kuleba-russians-plan-to-organize-a-sham-referendum-in-kherson/

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1502696396704657414


We have already seen Russia use ceasefires as tools to shift troops before violating them and killing civilians; this makes me concerned that the peace talks are being done to achieve the same thing. Even if Putin and Zelensky could hypothetically come to some mutual agreement around Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, it's hard to see this further violation of Ukrainian sovereignty as acceptable to Zelensky. And, on the Russian side, how would you even start to walk back a referendum like this? It seems like a clear sign that Putin has no intention of peace that respects Ukraine's autonomy beyond what had already been taken.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502723221371731976

Lol

Baghdad Bob called. He said Saddam is doomed to lose against America.

[NOVA Green]

Another way that individuals are attempting to spread info about the War in Ukraine to Russian citizens per the WSJ an hour ago.

It's a long article and includes various stories of individuals who have been using the tool, conversations they are having, etc...

Using a New Cyber Tool, Westerners Have Been Texting Russians About the War in Ukraine

Website developed by hackers is new initiative in West’s battle to counter Russia’s propaganda campaign

People around the world are using a new website to circumvent the Kremlin’s propaganda machine by sending individual messages about the war in Ukraine to random people in Russia.

The website was developed by a group of Polish programmers who obtained some 20 million cellphone numbers and close to 140 million email addresses owned by Russian individuals and companies. The site randomly generates numbers and addresses from those databases and allows anyone anywhere in the world to message them, with the option of using a pre-drafted message in Russian that calls on people to bypass President Vladimir Putin’s censorship of the media.

Since it was launched on March 6, thousands of people across the globe, including many in the U.S., have used the site to send millions of messages in Russian, footage from the war, or images of Western media coverage documenting Russia’s assault on civilians, according to Squad303, as the group that wrote the tool calls itself.

....

“Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Poland-based Squad303 said.

The spokesman, a programmer who asked not to be identified, likened the effort to such Cold War-era projects as the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe, which beamed radio programs in several languages across the Iron Curtain. Nearly seven million text messages and two million emails have been sent using the website since it was created a week ago, he said.

...

The Journal reviewed the websites’ code as published by the authors and tried several numbers served by the database, which turned out to be in service. Whether the entire database is made up of existing numbers and email addresses couldn’t be verified.

...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-a-new-cyber-tool-westerners-have-been-texting-russians-about-the-war-in-ukraine-11647100803?st=2ocms0xzgqzntxz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another way that individuals are attempting to spread info about the War in Ukraine to Russian citizens per the WSJ an hour ago.

It's a long article and includes various stories of individuals who have been using the tool, conversations they are having, etc...

Using a New Cyber Tool, Westerners Have Been Texting Russians About the War in Ukraine

Website developed by hackers is new initiative in West’s battle to counter Russia’s propaganda campaign

People around the world are using a new website to circumvent the Kremlin’s propaganda machine by sending individual messages about the war in Ukraine to random people in Russia.

The website was developed by a group of Polish programmers who obtained some 20 million cellphone numbers and close to 140 million email addresses owned by Russian individuals and companies. The site randomly generates numbers and addresses from those databases and allows anyone anywhere in the world to message them, with the option of using a pre-drafted message in Russian that calls on people to bypass President Vladimir Putin’s censorship of the media.

Since it was launched on March 6, thousands of people across the globe, including many in the U.S., have used the site to send millions of messages in Russian, footage from the war, or images of Western media coverage documenting Russia’s assault on civilians, according to Squad303, as the group that wrote the tool calls itself.

....

“Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Poland-based Squad303 said.

The spokesman, a programmer who asked not to be identified, likened the effort to such Cold War-era projects as the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe, which beamed radio programs in several languages across the Iron Curtain. Nearly seven million text messages and two million emails have been sent using the website since it was created a week ago, he said.

...

The Journal reviewed the websites’ code as published by the authors and tried several numbers served by the database, which turned out to be in service. Whether the entire database is made up of existing numbers and email addresses couldn’t be verified.

...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-a-new-cyber-tool-westerners-have-been-texting-russians-about-the-war-in-ukraine-11647100803?st=2ocms0xzgqzntxz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The more the war drags on, the more it looks as though information and the sharing of information could become the Achilles Heel for Russia.

[DavidB.]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502751813715611650?s=20&t=TObvJFRhBH...

[Storr]

Updated list of Russian officer casualties (from Captain, NATO code OF-2, and up):

Edit, the list doesn't include Captain Yevgeny Ivanov, probably waiting for confirmation or infromation about the date of death.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502658707842379780?s=20&t=10HnhWn...

Looks like there's another Captain that will be added to the list:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502754008376782849?s=20&t=Qk-DYmQS8KkK2L...

[compucomp]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

Channeling Prince William huh? Still believe in the White Man's Burden?

[2952-0-0]

Putin is screwed no matter what happens, and it seems his alliance with China is not going to pay the dividends he thought it would:

I know Putin made clear that he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine, and install a puppet in Kiev, but China may well force him to accept an East/West division of Ukraine (and Kiev) along the Dneiper.  And that, from the Russian perspective, is being optimistic, assuming they can even control eastern Ukraine. The Chinese are getting more and more discomfited the longer this war goes on.

And we (NATO and the United States) on our part can make the legitimate Ukrainian government accept this division despite their insistence they want their whole country back including Crimea.   

The longer this war drags on, the more that Putin just becomes a dead weight for Beijing. The best outcome for Beijing now is for Russia to just end the war and retreat to pre-February 24 boundaries. Russia will be still strong enough to menace the west, but too weak to wage any more wars. But, the problem is this war is now existential for Putin - if he doesn't win this war, he will at best become like Saddam post-1991, and at worst fall out of a window.

It will also be impossible to pressure the Ukrainian government - which ultimately answers to Ukrainian citizens - to give up half of the country to the despised enemy. As much as Putin wishes as such, Russia isn't the Soviet Union, and simply doesn't have the resources to secure an area of ~20 million people, which would require ~400,000 occupation troops. All that has to be done is wait for Russia to give up and withdraw.

[DavidB.]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

Channeling Prince William huh? Still believe in the White Man's Burden?

No idea what this babbling is supposed to mean, but as a European I find a war on my own continent in a country I visited multiple times quite a bit more scary than elsewhere. Sue me.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Israel is still a potential mediator with Jerusalem being a potential location for peace talks per reporting from the NYT and Haaretz within the past hour or so

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett of Israel and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine spoke for over an hour on Saturday night about how to stop the fighting and Israel's efforts to help, the prime minister's office said. Mr. Bennett met with President Vladimir V. Putin in Moscow last week, and Jerusalem has been raised as a possible host for peace talks.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/12/world/ukraine-russia-war?name=styln-russia-ukraine&region=TOP_BANNER&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control&is_new=false

Zelenskyy Says Russia-Ukraine Talks Could Take Place in Jerusalem

Ukraine's president tells Haaretz in Kyiv that Israel can play 'important role' in mediation because of its 'rich history'

....

https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-zelenskyy-says-russia-ukraine-talks-could-take-place-in-jerusalem-1.10669964

[2952-0-0]

The fact that one European state is inflicting such unspeakable evil on another European state and its citizens in this day and age is something I never expected to witness. We truly live in a different world now that this has happened, and it will never be as before again.

Channeling Prince William huh? Still believe in the White Man's Burden?

No idea what this babbling is supposed to mean, but as a European I find a war on my own continent in a country I visited multiple times quite a bit more scary than elsewhere. Sue me.

I think he means that, all the wars in Africa and the Middle East didn't get a fraction of the revulsion from Europeans (and European settler states) as a war in Europe. It's a fair point, but the way he presents it smacks of whataboutism.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/daneshjoon/status/1502711710506881025

[Meclazine for Israel]

People can easily draw parallels to the present situation.  

What about USA-Vietnam vs Russia-Ukraine?

What do you think are the parallels?

[NOVA Green]

Updated list of Russian officer casualties (from Captain, NATO code OF-2, and up):

Edit, the list doesn't include Captain Yevgeny Ivanov, probably waiting for confirmation or infromation about the date of death.

https://twitter.com/4ukraine834614/status/1502658707842379780?s=20&t=10HnhWn...

Looks like there's another Captain that will be added to the list:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1502754008376782849?s=20&t=Qk-DYmQS8KkK2L...

Looks like they are missing a major general from the list, although perhaps that's bcs it hasn't been confirmed by Russian sources yet?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Kolesnikov_(general)

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Russia found themselves a puppet mayor in Melitopol after kidnapping the current mayor yesterday which I reported on.

This sparked large protests within the occupied city earlier in the day.

Per CNN 5 minutes ago.

New mayor appointed in Russia-controlled Melitopol after the Ukrainian city's elected mayor was detained

The Zaporozhye regional administration says a new mayor has been installed in the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which is under Russian military control, after the elected mayor was detained on Friday.

Ivan Fedorov, the elected mayor of Melitopol, was detained by armed men on Friday and accused of terrorism offenses by the prosecutor's office for the separatist Russia-backed Luhansk region.

The newly installed mayor is Galina Danilchenko, a former member of the city council, according to a statement on the Zaporozhye regional administration website.

Danilchenko, who was not elected by the people, was introduced as the acting mayor on local TV, the statement said.

In her televised statement, which was posted by the administration on Telegram, Danilchenko said her "main task is to take all necessary steps to get the city back to normal."

She claimed there were people still in Melitopol who would try to destabilize "the situation and provoke a reaction of bad behavior."

"I ask you to keep your wits about you and not to give in to these provocations," Danilchenko said. "I appeal to the deputies, elected by the people, on all levels. Since you were elected by the people, it is your duty to care about the well-being of your citizens."

Danilchenko proposed the creation of a "People's Choice Committee" to "solve all the critical issues for Melitopol and the Melitopol region.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-12-22/h_d7ddf51a92bd3d4c8e15397ac8b1dfe8

[Mopsus]

It’s amusing that all of these puppet states call themselves “people’s republics”, something Russia itself no longer does. What a throwback.

[Logical]

Looks like Russia found themselves a puppet mayor in Melitopol after kidnapping the current mayor yesterday which I reported on.

This sparked large protests within the occupied city earlier in the day.

Per CNN 5 minutes ago.

New mayor appointed in Russia-controlled Melitopol after the Ukrainian city's elected mayor was detained

The Zaporozhye regional administration says a new mayor has been installed in the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which is under Russian military control, after the elected mayor was detained on Friday.

Ivan Fedorov, the elected mayor of Melitopol, was detained by armed men on Friday and accused of terrorism offenses by the prosecutor's office for the separatist Russia-backed Luhansk region.

The newly installed mayor is Galina Danilchenko, a former member of the city council, according to a statement on the Zaporozhye regional administration website.

Danilchenko, who was not elected by the people, was introduced as the acting mayor on local TV, the statement said.

In her televised statement, which was posted by the administration on Telegram, Danilchenko said her "main task is to take all necessary steps to get the city back to normal."

She claimed there were people still in Melitopol who would try to destabilize "the situation and provoke a reaction of bad behavior."

"I ask you to keep your wits about you and not to give in to these provocations," Danilchenko said. "I appeal to the deputies, elected by the people, on all levels. Since you were elected by the people, it is your duty to care about the well-being of your citizens."

Danilchenko proposed the creation of a "People's Choice Committee" to "solve all the critical issues for Melitopol and the Melitopol region.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-12-22/h_d7ddf51a92bd3d4c8e15397ac8b1dfe8

The Crimea/Donbass playbook. Find some willing collaborators, declare "independent" people's republics, stage a rigged referendum, annex them to the motherland. This should put to rest the idea that Russia would stop after seizing the Donbass. Putin wants Eastern Ukraine if he can't get a puppet regime.

[It’s so Joever]

Another way that individuals are attempting to spread info about the War in Ukraine to Russian citizens per the WSJ an hour ago.

It's a long article and includes various stories of individuals who have been using the tool, conversations they are having, etc...

Using a New Cyber Tool, Westerners Have Been Texting Russians About the War in Ukraine

Website developed by hackers is new initiative in West’s battle to counter Russia’s propaganda campaign

People around the world are using a new website to circumvent the Kremlin’s propaganda machine by sending individual messages about the war in Ukraine to random people in Russia.

The website was developed by a group of Polish programmers who obtained some 20 million cellphone numbers and close to 140 million email addresses owned by Russian individuals and companies. The site randomly generates numbers and addresses from those databases and allows anyone anywhere in the world to message them, with the option of using a pre-drafted message in Russian that calls on people to bypass President Vladimir Putin’s censorship of the media.

Since it was launched on March 6, thousands of people across the globe, including many in the U.S., have used the site to send millions of messages in Russian, footage from the war, or images of Western media coverage documenting Russia’s assault on civilians, according to Squad303, as the group that wrote the tool calls itself.

....

“Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Poland-based Squad303 said.

The spokesman, a programmer who asked not to be identified, likened the effort to such Cold War-era projects as the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe, which beamed radio programs in several languages across the Iron Curtain. Nearly seven million text messages and two million emails have been sent using the website since it was created a week ago, he said.

...

The Journal reviewed the websites’ code as published by the authors and tried several numbers served by the database, which turned out to be in service. Whether the entire database is made up of existing numbers and email addresses couldn’t be verified.

...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-a-new-cyber-tool-westerners-have-been-texting-russians-about-the-war-in-ukraine-11647100803?st=2ocms0xzgqzntxz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The more the war drags on, the more it looks as though information and the sharing of information could become the Achilles Heel for Russia.

People underestimate just how hard it is to be in the 21st century on a societal level and still have a monopoly on information. Some point to China…but nearly all young Chinese know how to get past the “wall” online and just genuinely are willing to accept the regime’s crap for economic interests/stability.

Unless you are a backwater country like North Korea…it’s hard to really do what Putin is trying to do.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another way that individuals are attempting to spread info about the War in Ukraine to Russian citizens per the WSJ an hour ago.

It's a long article and includes various stories of individuals who have been using the tool, conversations they are having, etc...

Using a New Cyber Tool, Westerners Have Been Texting Russians About the War in Ukraine

Website developed by hackers is new initiative in West’s battle to counter Russia’s propaganda campaign

People around the world are using a new website to circumvent the Kremlin’s propaganda machine by sending individual messages about the war in Ukraine to random people in Russia.

The website was developed by a group of Polish programmers who obtained some 20 million cellphone numbers and close to 140 million email addresses owned by Russian individuals and companies. The site randomly generates numbers and addresses from those databases and allows anyone anywhere in the world to message them, with the option of using a pre-drafted message in Russian that calls on people to bypass President Vladimir Putin’s censorship of the media.

Since it was launched on March 6, thousands of people across the globe, including many in the U.S., have used the site to send millions of messages in Russian, footage from the war, or images of Western media coverage documenting Russia’s assault on civilians, according to Squad303, as the group that wrote the tool calls itself.

....

“Our aim was to break through Putin’s digital wall of censorship and make sure that Russian people are not totally cut off from the world and the reality of what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” a spokesman for Poland-based Squad303 said.

The spokesman, a programmer who asked not to be identified, likened the effort to such Cold War-era projects as the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe, which beamed radio programs in several languages across the Iron Curtain. Nearly seven million text messages and two million emails have been sent using the website since it was created a week ago, he said.

...

The Journal reviewed the websites’ code as published by the authors and tried several numbers served by the database, which turned out to be in service. Whether the entire database is made up of existing numbers and email addresses couldn’t be verified.

...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/using-a-new-cyber-tool-westerners-have-been-texting-russians-about-the-war-in-ukraine-11647100803?st=2ocms0xzgqzntxz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The more the war drags on, the more it looks as though information and the sharing of information could become the Achilles Heel for Russia.

People underestimate just how hard it is to be in the 21st century on a societal level and still have a monopoly on information. Some point to China…but nearly all young Chinese know how to get past the “wall” online and just genuinely are willing to accept the regime’s crap for economic interests/stability.

Unless you are a backwater country like North Korea…it’s hard to really do what Putin is trying to do.

This could be a case of Putin's KGB instincts harming the state's social control as opposed to helping.
The Cheka was unable to completely destroy the Bolsheviks and other groups. The modern Russian security apparatus is unable to stop young Russians from accessing Youtube and Western social media.

[Frodo]

It’s amusing that all of these puppet states call themselves “people’s republics”, something Russia itself no longer does. What a throwback.

Strictly speaking, under the Soviet Union, Russia was called a 'Soviet Federative Socialist Republic', not a 'People's Republic'.  Not that I see much of a difference...