Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[MaxQue]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

What China would gain from doing that?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile Human Rights / War Criminal from Chechnya allegedly visited Ukraine recently per The Guardian reporting ~ 1 hour ago from a Reuters article.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia’s Chechnya region, said he traveled to Ukraine to visit Chechen troops attacking Kyiv, according to Reuters. Reuters could not independently verify whether he actually traveled to the region.

Kadyrov is a close ally of Vladimir Putin and has previously described himself as Putin’s “foot soldier” and has been accused of human rights abuses by the US and the European Union -- which he denies.

“Chechen television channel Grozny posted a video on its Telegram social media channel earlier on Sunday that showed Kadyrov in a darkened room discussing with Chechen troops a military operation they said took place 7 km (4.3 miles) from the Ukrainian capital,” Reuters reported. “The post did not make clear where or when the meeting had taken place.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/13/ukraine-news-russia-war-ceasefire-broken-humanitarian-corridors-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-latest-updates-live

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

You know, generally when a citizen of one country is living and working in another, they're motivated to support good relations between the two countries, rather than actively rooting for those relations to worsen.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1503127520253779974?s=20&t=nwB1vtgy6Wuw...

[Storr]

In case you needed any additional evidence to convince you that Kadyrov and his goons are legitimately bad people:

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1503134748000104448?s=20&t=jaPwoOZ58Ugm...

[pppolitics]

In case you needed any additional evidence to convince you that Kadyrov and his goons are legitimately bad people:

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1503134748000104448?s=20&t=jaPwoOZ58Ugm...

Well, of cause.

They would get slaughtered fighting combat trained troops.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1503144378617184259

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1503126946372362240

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1503126946372362240

One of the comments, I'm definitely skeptical of the claim:

https://twitter.com/IdiotProof/status/1503130453477367809?s=20&t=GiKW8CJv54L...

and a OSINT twitter account I follow:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503156208571752452?s=20&t=xVAaVyeFVoe...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Round 2 of "What take is closer to the current situation?"

'Ukraine is in trouble if they're getting no help and Russia is reorganizing' or 'Russia is in trouble if they're looking at asking China for help'

[NOVA Green]

Oracle is now pulling out of Russia per The Guardian...

Official tweets replying to Zelenskiy below...

Oracle says it was the first to stop all of its operations in Russia in response to a tweet from President Zelenskiy urging the company as well as Microsoft and SAP to cease supporting all products in Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/13/ukraine-news-russia-war-ceasefire-broken-humanitarian-corridors-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-latest-updates-live

https://twitter.com/Oracle/status/1503104376298221582?s=20&t=lgTY1d4-29RrhYo...

https://twitter.com/Oracle/status/1503104560570765313?s=20&t=4lX8fi5wRUoMcj-...

[Storr]

Round 2 of "What take is closer to the current situation?"

'Ukraine is in trouble if they're getting no help and Russia is reorganizing' or 'Russia is in trouble if they're looking at asking China for help'

The US intelligence community spread the reports about Russia asking China for help (most of the reports about it came from US media). The question is why? I'd guess the main purpose was to disrupt any possible Russian plan to get aid from the Chinese. It's even more unlikely the Chinese would help Russia now that the idea is being publicly discussed in the media.

So, the first one. Ukraine is still outmatched against Russia "by the numbers". Russian incompetence has given them a chance. Seriously, who thought 190k troops would be enough to defeat and occupy a country of 40+ million people?

[It’s so Joever]

Round 2 of "What take is closer to the current situation?"

'Ukraine is in trouble if they're getting no help and Russia is reorganizing' or 'Russia is in trouble if they're looking at asking China for help'

Obviously the first.
Russia suffered a bad couple weeks, but they still gained land. Now that they are reorganizing, the same tactical blunders from early on probably wont be made again. Everything East of the Dnieper is DOA, and the Russians will 100% take the entire Black Sea coast within a few months and likely everything East of Zhytomyr. The Russian economy is hurt, but clearly not enough for actual change.

[Storr]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503166730356629505?s=20&t=TZIJ7i6KN9a...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503166730356629505?s=20&t=TZIJ7i6KN9a...

There's a pretty strong case to be made that journalism should go where armies do not want it to. Tracey is a moron and Russia is bound to know whatever he and other journos know about US activity at that base regardless of whether they report on it.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russian models will have their Instagram accounts disabled on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/russia-to-block-instagram-after-meta-relaxes-putin-hate-speech

Something about hate speech.

This woman did not appear stressed  Must have an account in another country.

https://instagram.com/alenakryukovaa

In other news, Russian tourists are trapped in Thailand and have no way of paying with their credit card or getting a flight.

6,500 Russians are currently holidaying in Thailand.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-14/russian-tourists-stuck-in-thailand-as-sanctions-hit-after-ukrain/100906612

[NOVA Green]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1503166730356629505?s=20&t=TZIJ7i6KN9a...

OK--- this is a new story for me.

Still, I remember being in Southern Hungary right over the border from the former "Yugoslavia" and seeing streams of NATO convoys steaming towards the border shortly after a New Years Eve celebration in Budapest somewhere around Pécs.

There was something going on at the time with some random Far-Right Dictator in Serbia back around '94, but either way we pulled over to the side of the road with our German Plates and let the international NATO truck convoy do their work.

Poland wasn't NATO when I spent some time over there back in the early '90s.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1503182932437053447?s=20&t=kL1Cy7A...

[DaleCooper]

Apparently Russia has asked China for military assistance
https://www.ft.com/content/30850470-8c8c-4b53-aa39-01497064a7b7?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content

Big if true. That would tell you that things are going very poorly for Putin.

I seriously doubt China has any desire to get involved militarily in any shape or form. While don't want to stab Moscow in the back, Xi has little interest in this war prolonging. Alone for China's economic investments in Ukraine and Western sanctions hurting the global economy, to which the Chinese are extensively connected.

At most I could see the Chinese sending weapons (like NATO). I just don't see what the benefit for the Chinese would be, if they directly got involved. In the best scenario (for Russia) a new "denazified" Ukrainian government is installed and China gets what exactly out of their help? They already have a 25 year cheap oil deal with Russia, signed a few weeks before the invasion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/russia-s-gazprom-signs-new-gas-supply-contract-with-china

it's a chance to test their gear in a real world situation, which they need.  Probably not worth the ...ahem....fallout though.   ugggg

Would sh-tty made-in-China military tech be much better than what Russia has now?

[Edu]

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if we assume there's much truth to this and even if we assume that the request is to be granted (not minor assumptions), there are certain practical... one might even say logistical difficulties in moving Chinese military equipment to the front line.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin: If you give me your guns now I will crush those Ukrainian Nazis in no time!

Xi: What the hell am I doing here?





Courtesy of Der Spiegel.

[WMS]

Noble Russian liberators!
https://twitter.com/ikoshiw/status/1503049053210300417?s=21

Always Russian territory!
https://twitter.com/greenjdandwords/status/1503051748260294656?s=21

Ukrainians are horrible Nazis!
https://twitter.com/mok_brianna/status/1503040755199315973?s=21

Putin will be satisfied with Ukraine!
https://twitter.com/dietmarpichler1/status/1502941950470762498?s=21

“Both sides!”
https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1502983563020537857?s=21

Unverified Ukrainian propaganda!
https://twitter.com/denio_vale/status/1502733500079878146?s=21

Russia is united behind the war!
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1502159841631997960?s=21

Clearly Azov Battalion supporters!
https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1502757477712027654?s=21

Ukrainians are really fellow Russians and this isn’t imperialism!
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1502991031352102913?s=21

Banning Russia Today is the equivalent of what Putin’s regime does to journalists! A compucomp special!
https://twitter.com/janeferguson5/status/1503000669153808387?s=21

Both sides, again!
https://twitter.com/alanabdo13/status/1502705613838688263?s=21

More unverified Ukrainian propaganda!
https://twitter.com/ohitsbenji/status/1503023995569913859?s=21

As always, a firm fuck off to fascists of all stripes and all continents who think there is any moral equivalence whatsoever between one or more members of the West and Russia!

[compucomp]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

They happily report on Russian troop movements. You're making the argument that because the American media is doing the bidding of the US government on this issue, Russia is perfectly justified in treating them in the same way the US treated RT.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

They happily report on Russian troop movements. You're making the argument that because the American media is doing the bidding of the US government on this issue, Russia is perfectly justified in treating them in the same way the US treated RT.

But Russia is not treating Western journalists "the way the US treated RT". The various RT personalities are, as far as is known, all still alive.