Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[John Dule]

I haven’t been following this thread very closely so forgive me…

Is there any legitimate concern this could end up being WWIII?

Yes. No matter how unlikely that outcome is, it carries such serious consequences that all concerns about it under these circumstances are legitimate.

[Storr]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the cartoonish megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status/1502337993012658177

[AndyHogan14]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

It's totally speculative on my part, but I wonder if a large contingent of the Belarusian forces would just surrender en masse once entering Ukraine. Some, I assume, would even be willing to start fighting for the Ukrainians.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/provoqio/status/1502326769684299781

[Storr]

At least it didn't drive off a bridge. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502697207266484228?s=20&t=7iF0i46Jv8r...

[Torie]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

It's totally speculative on my part, but I wonder if a large contingent of the Belarusian forces would just surrender en masse once entering Ukraine. Some, I assume, would even be willing to start fighting for the Ukrainians.

Seems perfectly reasonable if 1) there is somebody to surrender to, and 2) it is not perceived that there is a substantial prospect of being picked up later and hung as traitors, and 3) they are willing to face the prospect of not being able to go home again until there is a regime change.  It is far easier to surrender when it is clear "your side" has lost, and a regime change on your side looks likely.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1502677453642289155

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At least it didn't drive off a bridge. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502697207266484228?s=20&t=7iF0i46Jv8r...

This is an old photo.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1502658812897112064

[GeorgiaModerate]

Update to Belarus' situation. Lukashenko is the physical embodiment of the megalomaniac post-Soviet dictator stereotype, but he's not stupid:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502630211644534787?s=20&t=XaXvZul2p...

It's totally speculative on my part, but I wonder if a large contingent of the Belarusian forces would just surrender en masse once entering Ukraine. Some, I assume, would even be willing to start fighting for the Ukrainians.

Seems perfectly reasonable if 1) there is somebody to surrender to, and 2) it is not perceived that there is a substantial prospect of being picked up later and hung as traitors, and 3) they are willing to face the prospect of not being able to go home again until there is a regime change.  It is far easier to surrender when it is clear "your side" has lost, and a regime change on your side looks likely.

Here's a story I was told by someone who was deployed in Iraq during the first few days of Desert Storm; whether it actually happened this way I can't say.  He and another soldier were on a recon.  On the way to rejoin their unit, their vehicle broke down and they were stranded in the desert.  They radioed for help but it was at least an hour away.  Five minutes later, a string of Iraqi soldiers, at least platoon strength, appeared over a nearby hill.  They weren't shooting and there was nowhere to run or hide, so the two Americans just waited for them to approach.  The Iraqis halted, and their commander stepped forward and asked "You are American soliders?" (which was fairly obvious).  My friend responded "Yes, we are."  The Iraqi responded "We surrender."

[Storr]

Vindman has had some bad takes about the war. But, the whole "do anything more to help Ukraine = WWIII" narrative is simplistic and tired.

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1502424961318719489?s=20&t=GUEnHrBeli82z...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719711234174981?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

[Silent Hunter]

Big if true.

[NOVA Green]

Recent NYT snippet. Considering that some recent Russian military claims have proven to be inaccurate taking it with a grain of salt until confirmed elsewhere.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that it had used high-precision weapons to destroy a military airfield in Vasilkov, southwest of Kyiv, and Ukraine’s main center for signals intelligence in the city of Brovary, east of the capital. The claims could not be independently verified. From the start of its invasion, the Russian government has emphasized that its forces are focused on the “demilitarization” of Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/11/world/ukraine-russia-news

[President Johnson]

Still a big if, but I wonder whether Ukrainian forces would try to reclaim Crimea in case they're successful in pushing the Russians out of the mainland with increased help from the West? If I were Ukraine, I'd seriously consider to do so.

[Storr]

Big if true.

I hope this isn't just propaganda.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502732655103811590?s=20&t=NsDXgjDQJ-m...

[NOVA Green]

Innovative strategy to help spread news about the War in Ukraine to the Russian population using.... spam. It's a free article so no paywall.

Ukraine: Spam website set up to reach millions of Russians

A Norwegian computer expert has created a website enabling anyone to send an email about the war in Ukraine to up to 150 Russian email addresses at a time, so that Russian people have a chance to hear the truth their government is hiding.

All over Russia email inboxes are pinging.

Millions of messages are being received with the same intriguing subject Ya vam ne vrag - I am not your enemy.

The message appears in Russian with an English translation and it begins: "Dear friend, I am writing to you to express my concern for the secure future of our children on this planet. Most of the world has condemned Putin's invasion of Ukraine."

The lengthy email goes on to implore Russian people to reject the war in Ukraine and seek the truth about the invasion from non-state news services.

In just a few days, more than 22 million of these emails landed in Russian inboxes, and they're being sent by volunteers around the world, who are donating their time and email addresses to the cause.

....

His website, which the BBC is not naming, is circumventing Russian censorship through a mix of clever computing and people power. The system allows people to send his templated message to dozens of Russian email addresses at once, and he estimates that tens of thousands of volunteers have done this since the website went live.

Fabian built it with five colleagues, who worked flat-out last weekend to get the job done. They started by trawling the internet for known Russian email addresses and compiled a list of 90 million accounts they believe are active. He says the strength of the system lies in getting volunteers to use their own email accounts instead of bulk-messaging the email addresses using spam software.

Users can choose to contact from one to 150 Russian people. Then, with a click, the volunteer's default email client (Outlook or Gmail, for example) is loaded up with the unique email addresses, subject and body text ready to send.

People are also able to personalise the contents too, to increase the chances of getting their email read.

There are two reasons, says Fabian, for using people's personal email accounts: the emails get through email spam filters if they are sent from real accounts, and in small numbers.

"But also, people can actually receive replies from Russians and engage with them and have conversations about the war."

Fabian says some accounts will be less active than others and in some cases the email may end up in the junk mail folder. But many of the messages are being read, he says, and some Russians are replying.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60697261

[AndyHogan14]

Still a big if, but I wonder whether Ukrainian forces would try to reclaim Crimea in case they're successful in pushing the Russians out of the mainland with increased help from the West? If I were Ukraine, I'd seriously consider to do so.

Would love for them to do so, but the only way that happens is if the government collapses in Moscow. Hope it happens though!

[NOVA Green]

From The Guardian six hours ago.

Russian forces are reportedly planning to conduct a “pseudo referendum” in Kherson, the Ukrainian city under Russian occupation. The deputy head of the local council in Kherson told Reuters that it wants to create a new breakaway republic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/12/ukraine-news-russia-war-ceasefire-broken-humanitarian-corridors-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-latest-updates-live?page=with:block-622cd5fd8f08ec6557dfc15f&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719026522431492?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1502719711234174981?s=20&t=zx0YinT6B...

No way…

[NOVA Green]

From The Guardian six hours ago.

Russian forces are reportedly planning to conduct a “pseudo referendum” in Kherson, the Ukrainian city under Russian occupation. The deputy head of the local council in Kherson told Reuters that it wants to create a new breakaway republic.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/12/ukraine-news-russia-war-ceasefire-broken-humanitarian-corridors-kyiv-russian-invasion-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelenskiy-latest-updates-live?page=with:block-622cd5fd8f08ec6557dfc15f&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation

Here's a bit more on this story from CNN:

Ukrainian officials accuse Russians of planning a referendum for "independence" in southern region

A senior Ukrainian official in the southern region of Kherson, which is now under Russian occupation, has said that the Russians are pressing the regional council to agree to a referendum on the area's "independence" from Ukraine.

Serhiy Khlan, a deputy of the Kherson regional council, said "the occupiers are preparing a referendum on the creation of the People's Republic of Kherson."

He said local deputies were being called to ask if they are ready for "cooperation."

"I flatly refused to co-operate with them," Khlan said.
"The creation of the People's Republic of Kherson will turn our region into a hopeless hole without life and future."
He urged deputies to refuse to cooperate.

After Russian-backed separatists took control in 2014 of parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, people's republics were declared in both areas.

There's been no word from the Russian side about any referendum plans.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-12-22/h_4136cad5104f3955b065c29223cbc1ff

[Frodo]

Putin is screwed no matter what happens, and it seems his alliance with China is not going to pay the dividends he thought it would:

China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It.
Any financial lifeline that Beijing can offer Moscow involves taking on risk and won’t have the power to reverse the damage of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

To help Russia evade sanctions, China would have to offer a viable substitute to the American dollar. But Chinese money — the renminbi — is barely used outside of China. Only 3 percent of the world’s business is done using the redback. Even Russia and China conduct their trade mostly in U.S. dollars and euros.

What’s more, the risks of helping Russia avoid economic ruin may be greater for China than any possible reward. Much of China’s own economy depends on the U.S. dollar and the financial edifice that underpins it. Chinese companies are active around the globe, using the American financial system to pay employees, buy materials and make investments. China is the world’s largest exporter, and is paid for its goods mainly in dollars.

Should Beijing run afoul of the sanctions against Russia, China’s own financial stability would be put at risk at a time when its leaders have emphasized caution. And besides, the few lifelines that Chinese leaders could feasibly offer Russia would not be strong enough to help the country survive a financial blackout from the United States and its allies.

(...) criticizing sanctions is one thing. Choosing to go against the global financial order and risk inviting sanctions at home is another. Beijing has already given some indication that it isn’t willing to do the latter. The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — an investment bank that Washington sees as a World Bank rival — last week said it would put its lending to Russia and Belarus on hold over the war in Ukraine. Some Chinese banks have cut back on the financing of Russian commodities.

“Chinese banks are trying to cut their exposure to Russia,” said Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank. “You can tell that the theory of China offering a financial alternative to Russia remains questionable.”

I know Putin made clear that he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine, and install a puppet in Kiev, but China may well force him to accept an East/West division of Ukraine (and Kiev) along the Dneiper.  And that, from the Russian perspective, is being optimistic, assuming they can even control eastern Ukraine. The Chinese are getting more and more discomfited the longer this war goes on.

And we (NATO and the United States) on our part can make the legitimate Ukrainian government accept this division despite their insistence they want their whole country back including Crimea.   

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin is screwed no matter what happens, and it seems his alliance with China is not going to pay the dividends he thought it would:

China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It.
Any financial lifeline that Beijing can offer Moscow involves taking on risk and won’t have the power to reverse the damage of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.

To help Russia evade sanctions, China would have to offer a viable substitute to the American dollar. But Chinese money — the renminbi — is barely used outside of China. Only 3 percent of the world’s business is done using the redback. Even Russia and China conduct their trade mostly in U.S. dollars and euros.

What’s more, the risks of helping Russia avoid economic ruin may be greater for China than any possible reward. Much of China’s own economy depends on the U.S. dollar and the financial edifice that underpins it. Chinese companies are active around the globe, using the American financial system to pay employees, buy materials and make investments. China is the world’s largest exporter, and is paid for its goods mainly in dollars.

Should Beijing run afoul of the sanctions against Russia, China’s own financial stability would be put at risk at a time when its leaders have emphasized caution. And besides, the few lifelines that Chinese leaders could feasibly offer Russia would not be strong enough to help the country survive a financial blackout from the United States and its allies.

(...) criticizing sanctions is one thing. Choosing to go against the global financial order and risk inviting sanctions at home is another. Beijing has already given some indication that it isn’t willing to do the latter. The Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — an investment bank that Washington sees as a World Bank rival — last week said it would put its lending to Russia and Belarus on hold over the war in Ukraine. Some Chinese banks have cut back on the financing of Russian commodities.

“Chinese banks are trying to cut their exposure to Russia,” said Raymond Yeung of ANZ Bank. “You can tell that the theory of China offering a financial alternative to Russia remains questionable.”

I know Putin made clear that he wanted to conquer all of Ukraine, and install a puppet in Kiev, but China may well force him to accept an East/West division of Ukraine (and Kiev) along the Dneiper.  And that, from the Russian perspective, is being optimistic, assuming they can even control eastern Ukraine. The Chinese are getting more and more discomfited the longer this war goes on.

And we (NATO and the United States) on our part can make the legitimate Ukrainian government accept this division despite their insistence they want their whole country back including Crimea.   

Vladimir Putin is an ex-KGB agent, not an economist.

[Storr]

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is left to post on twitter the type of conspiracy theories you'd expect to see on MAGA boomer facebook.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1502744525588029449?s=20&t=awRZhsha...