2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Happy Super Poll Sunday!

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/1322673202376642562?s=21

Predictions:
Ohio: Trump +3
Iowa: Trump +2
Michigan: Biden +9

Ohio: Trump +4
Iowa: Trump +5
Michigan: Biden +7

1/3

Shush. 

[wbrocks67]

I find it hard to believe that CBS/WP and Monmouth won't release a final national poll.

Yea, I expect ABC/Wapo and Monmouth tomorrow. Possibly Q-pac.

[forza nocta]

Monmouth has already said that their PA poll tomorrow is their final poll of the cycle, so no final nat. poll from them. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322919245597020160

[Wiz in Wis]

Monmouth has already said that their PA poll tomorrow is their final poll of the cycle, so no final nat. poll from them. 

I'd rather a PA poll at this point, anyways.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322919245597020160

If you compare Trump's 2020 numbers with his 2016 numbers (caveat: "polling isn't predictive", "the only poll that matters is Election Day", blah blah blah), it reinforces the notion that Trump has been generally unable to expand his base across the past four years.  

[xavier110]

Predictions:

IA-Selzer: +2 Trump, Tied Senate
PA-NYT/Siena: +6 Biden
FL-NYT/Siena: +4 Biden
WI-NYT/Siena: +7 Biden
AZ-NYT/Siena: +5 Biden, +7 Kelly

LOL  Selzer, but yasss Siena

[hyouzel the predictor]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1322545158467047424

This, right here, is the reason I think Trump is going to lose worse than the 413 map.


Calling it right now. Dems take at least 54 seats in the Senate, and unless there are major court cases (Harris County, PA VBM, etc), Biden will win states that we didn't even think were competitive like MO, MT, AK, SC, IN.

Everything starts to make sense, like why Pence was campaigning in Indiana, why the Trump campaign is bombarding KCMO and KCK with ads, why Trump telegraphed that he might be down in SC on Twitter.

I think what we will see on Election Night is that Trump's base was completely maxed out in 2016, and he will get around the same amount of votes while Biden gets like 20 million more.


This is the opposite of Dooming, but I am super super optimistic about this election for the first time this entire cycle.

LFG!!!!

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1322545158467047424

This, right here, is the reason I think Trump is going to lose worse than the 413 map.


Calling it right now. Dems take at least 54 seats in the Senate, and unless there are major court cases (Harris County, PA VBM, etc), Biden will win states that we didn't even think were competitive like MO, MT, AK, SC, IN.

Everything starts to make sense, like why Pence was campaigning in Indiana, why the Trump campaign is bombarding KCMO and KCK with ads, why Trump telegraphed that he might be down in SC on Twitter.

I think what we will see on Election Night is that Trump's base was completely maxed out in 2016, and he will get around the same amount of votes while Biden gets like 20 million more.


This is the opposite of Dooming, but I am super super optimistic about this election for the first time this entire cycle.

LFG!!!!

Im not this optimistic, but you def bring up some points that I agree with and I share the overall feelings on the outcome.

Stuff like this + the district polls really do not point to a remotely close race.

Combine that with the turnout going through the roof by the looks of it and many many non voters from 16 voting in 2020 and I think the ingredients are all there for a systemic polling error in Biden's favor.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Will there be any more polls in North Carolina

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1322930029043605504

[ElectionObserver]

Yougov will have one more national poll out for The Economist.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1322545158467047424

Probably just lowering expectations.

[SaneDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1322545158467047424

Probably just lowering expectations.

Yea, exactly. We would be regularly seeing Biden+15 polls if this was true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323001741210771456

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1323010596984528905

[Buzz]

Final Emerson prediction:

NC: Biden +1
GA: Tied
FL: Biden +2
TX: Trump +2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Final Emerson prediction:

NC: Biden +1
GA: Tied
FL: Biden +2
TX: Trump +2

Are they actually releasing polls of these states? I took it as just a general twitter poll

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Final Emerson prediction:

NC: Biden +1
GA: Tied
FL: Biden +2
TX: Trump +2

Are they actually releasing polls of these states? I took it as just a general twitter poll

Yep, they did like 12 state polls

[Buzz]

Final Emerson prediction:

NC: Biden +1
GA: Tied
FL: Biden +2
TX: Trump +2

Are they actually releasing polls of these states? I took it as just a general twitter poll

I believe they are.  They said they were doing 14 yesterday

[TheLaRocca]

Another Democrat on Twitter (unverified) who claimed he had seen them said they were “ok at best.”

I can say I've seen them myself and they're perfectly fine and don't even show much movement at all. Lmao.

What have you heard about the national poll being released?

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322919245597020160

If you compare Trump's 2020 numbers with his 2016 numbers (caveat: "polling isn't predictive", "the only poll that matters is Election Day", blah blah blah), it reinforces the notion that Trump has been generally unable to expand his base across the past four years.  

Also notable here is that the biggest swings appear to be among Whites without College Degrees.

As I noted multiple times on 2016 related threads, despite the stereotype about some guy in his mid '40s with a neckbeard working in manufacturing, the reality is that Whites without College degrees are strongly correlated with age level, and the swing among Seniors is closely connected with whites w/o college degrees.

Also tons of WWC women working in retail, food service sector, medical services, etc are also frequently neglected within the stereotype of WWC White Voters...

[Ferguson97]

Emerson prediction

NC: Biden+2
GA: Biden+1
FL: Trump+1
TX: Tied

[tagimaucia]

Is there really not going to be a final ABC/Wapo national poll this year? The gold standard for national polling IMO, and the state polling they seem to have done instead seems of rather questionable quality in comparison.

[forza nocta]

Today wasn’t as poll heavy as I’d thought it would be. “Super Poll Sunday” my a**