I've been following US elections for over 50 years and have missed two: 2000, when I predicted the reverse of what happened (Gore winning the EC while losing the PV), and 2016, which a lot of people missed.
At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence. As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error. But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead.
To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter. There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.
At this point I simply don't know who's going to win this year, although I like to think it's a highly informed "don't know" rather than a copout. The race is too close and there's too much time left to predict it objectively with any degree of confidence. As I've said before, if the election was held today I'd rate Trump as a slight favorite, although far from a certainty; it's certainly within the margin of error. But there is plenty of time and opportunity for Biden to retake the lead.
To use a football analogy I've used before, Biden is down a touchdown in the second quarter. There's plenty of time and the opportunity is certainly there, but he can't just stand pat; he has to actually do the work needed to make up the deficit.