UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[JimJamUK]

I don't know why you'd reach for the Senate (created as a co-equal legislative body) for a comparison when the Bundesrat is right there.

Given the animosity between Labour and the Conservatives (and arguably also with other parties) as well as the regionalist/separatist tendencies in Scotland and Northern Ireland, it’s not hard to imagine we’d have one of the most partisan 2nd chambers that is willing to play hardball and block legislation.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1594762181060476928
Hardly surprising, given his wealth/vibe/etc, but plays right into Labour's messaging. I mean, Starmer's wife literally works in the NHS, while Sunak refuses to participate in a single Health Service queue, at a time when the Service is creaking.

Like Truss before him, it's starting to feel like Sunak is writing the opposition's next election campaign adverts himself. The "out of touch" lines, the NHS privatisation attacks, the "too rich to understand the cost-of-living crisis" stuff, it all gets a bit of ammunition out of this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's exactly what you would expect, but I'm surprised at how poorly he has handled the issue: there's no way it won't go down badly with the bulk of the electorate, but if he had framed it along the old 'right to choose' grounds and suggested that patients going private takes the strain off the public system (the truth or otherwise wouldn't be the issue) then that at least has some appeal to a small minority, but instead we've just had awkward non-denial denials. There's little he can do to avoid people viewing him as Rich-y Sunak, but the Shifty Sunak issue was another matter.

[Torrain]

It's exactly what you would expect, but I'm surprised at how poorly he has handled the issue: there's no way it won't go down badly with the bulk of the electorate, but if he had framed it along the old 'right to choose' grounds and suggested that patients going private takes the strain off the public system (the truth or otherwise wouldn't be the issue) then that at least has some appeal to a small minority, but instead we've just had awkward non-denial denials. There's little he can do to avoid people viewing him as Rich-y Sunak, but the Shifty Sunak issue was another matter.

Aye - the weird denials and misdirections in Bali definitely suggested there was something here. Answering all questions about your healthcare coverage with "look, I'm obviously not going to go into details about my kids' medical records was such a weird move.

I get that it was probably supposed to come across as "family-man Sunak defends kids against invasive media", but I was just left with the impression that he was literally trying to hide behind his kids (*insert height joke*), and use them as a political shield. Not a great look.

[oldtimer]

Replicating the American Senate in the UK will probably be a good idea, just without filibusters and with shorter terms.

It would have prevented the breakup of the British Empire, since people on some god-forsaken terrirory (like Ireland, Scotland) would have gotten more attention by London, instead of letting them rot.

Of course the UK being a lot smaller would probably only need 20 Senators, I can easily find 19 just using this:

2 from N.Ireland
2 from S.Wales
2 from N.Wales
2 from N.England
2 from S.England
2 from London
2 from Midlands
2 from Scottish Lowlands
2 from Scottish Highlands.
1 from Territories and Crown Lands.

England total 8
Scotland total 4
Wales total 4
Ireland total 2
Rest 1

A simple 8,4,2,1 from largest to smallest.

In political terms you would expect depending on the political weather:
Conservatives: 2-12 Seats.
Labour: 4-12.
LD: 0-2
SNP: 0-4
Irish Unionists: 0-2
Irish Nationalists: 0-2

[Cassius]

Replicating the American Senate in the UK will probably be a good idea, just without filibusters and with shorter terms.

It would have prevented the breakup of the British Empire, since people on some god-forsaken terrirory (like Ireland, Scotland) would have gotten more attention by London, instead of letting them rot.

Of course the UK being a lot smaller would probably only need 20 Senators, I can easily find 19 just using this:

2 from N.Ireland
2 from S.Wales
2 from N.Wales
2 from N.England
2 from S.England
2 from London
2 from Midlands
2 from Scottish Lowlands
2 from Scottish Highlands.
1 from Territories and Crown Lands.

England total 8
Scotland total 4
Wales total 4
Ireland total 2
Rest 1

A simple 8,4,2,1 from largest to smallest.

In political terms you would expect depending on the political weather:
Conservatives: 2-12 Seats.
Labour: 4-12.
LD: 0-2
SNP: 0-4
Irish Unionists: 0-2
Irish Nationalists: 0-2

Ireland received a very great deal of attention from Westminster in the decades prior to partition.

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1594762181060476928
Hardly surprising, given his wealth/vibe/etc, but plays right into Labour's messaging. I mean, Starmer's wife literally works in the NHS, while Sunak refuses to participate in a single Health Service queue, at a time when the Service is creaking.

Like Truss before him, it's starting to feel like Sunak is writing the opposition's next election campaign adverts himself. The "out of touch" lines, the NHS privatisation attacks, the "too rich to understand the cost-of-living crisis" stuff, it all gets a bit of ammunition out of this.

Didn't the Conservatives call Starmer a out of touch elitist in 2020 ?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1594762181060476928
Hardly surprising, given his wealth/vibe/etc, but plays right into Labour's messaging. I mean, Starmer's wife literally works in the NHS, while Sunak refuses to participate in a single Health Service queue, at a time when the Service is creaking.

Like Truss before him, it's starting to feel like Sunak is writing the opposition's next election campaign adverts himself. The "out of touch" lines, the NHS privatisation attacks, the "too rich to understand the cost-of-living crisis" stuff, it all gets a bit of ammunition out of this.

Didn't the Conservatives call Starmer a out of touch elitist in 2020 ?

Pretty sure they tried a number of "North London elitist" lines between 2020-2021 (example from a Tory-friendly paper). That sort of worked when Starmer was losing by-elections in must-win, working class seats like Hartlepool - and thus the "out of touch" thing had some basis (Starmer was facing similar attacks from Novara Media types on the left at the time).

However, once Starmer took a small lead over Johnson, won a by-election, and the whole political focus became about Johnson drinking wine at parties that included the high-end interior decorator who (reportedly) remodelled his government flat with gold wallpaper, it became harder to get the line to stick.

Truss briefly cast herself as someone from an unprivileged background (she had to go to a comprehensive, and live in Leeds), but that fell apart almost as fast as her premiership, given she was the daughter of a well-established academic.

As others have pointed out further back in the thread, Starmer does actually have a rather working class background, it's just not all that apparent these days. It always end being discussed in long-form interview with him (see the Times interview this week), but isn't really part of any stump speech or weekly soundbite from him.

Curiously, now that Starmer is ahead in the polls, several of his former critics on the left have taken to defending him against Sunak's recent attempts to use these sort of attacks against him.

[Silent Hunter]

Starmer is however establishment enough to be a "Sir" before becoming party leader.

[oldtimer]

Replicating the American Senate in the UK will probably be a good idea, just without filibusters and with shorter terms.

It would have prevented the breakup of the British Empire, since people on some god-forsaken terrirory (like Ireland, Scotland) would have gotten more attention by London, instead of letting them rot.

Of course the UK being a lot smaller would probably only need 20 Senators, I can easily find 19 just using this:

2 from N.Ireland
2 from S.Wales
2 from N.Wales
2 from N.England
2 from S.England
2 from London
2 from Midlands
2 from Scottish Lowlands
2 from Scottish Highlands.
1 from Territories and Crown Lands.

England total 8
Scotland total 4
Wales total 4
Ireland total 2
Rest 1

A simple 8,4,2,1 from largest to smallest.

In political terms you would expect depending on the political weather:
Conservatives: 2-12 Seats.
Labour: 4-12.
LD: 0-2
SNP: 0-4
Irish Unionists: 0-2
Irish Nationalists: 0-2

Ireland received a very great deal of attention from Westminster in the decades prior to partition.

Not in a good way though.

[Silent Hunter]

It got offered domestic autonomy. In time, it may have even become a Dominion.

[Badger]

If you’re going to do Lords reform then either simply tinker about with it a bit eg; remove hereditary peers, switch to a panel of experts style house, or just abolish it completely. The whole ‘house of regions’ style idea sounds stupid, either it duplicates the geographic representation role of currently elected MPs, or it goes down a US Senate style route of a powerful 2nd chamber that can block things supported by a majority of more democratically elected MPs (and who looks at the US Senate and thinks “let’s do that”?).

This times 10. As I understand it the House of Lords can't best delay legislation nominally, whereas an elected chamber might actually have the political clout to stop things like the US Senate and turn into a needless bicameral system.

[brucejoel99]

So long as Labour's reform bill explicitly provides that the Parliament Acts 1911 & 1949 still apply, no matter that the Lords/Second Chamber would now be popularly (& not appointively or hereditarily) constituted, there should be no precipitation of mandate-based conflict with the Commons… right?

[Torrain]

Chloe Smith (Work and Pensions Secretary under Liz Truss) is standing down at the next election.

Understandable on a purely numerical level - her seat is fairly marginal, with a 4,500 majority in 2019, and a win by only 500 votes in 2017.

But man, its not a great omen for the party. Smith's 2009 by-election win was the big symbolic "the Tories are back" story of that summer, foreshadowing their political recovery. For that same MP to be giving up the ghost, and leaving politics entirely (at only 40 years old!) is quite a signal.

Edit: apparently CCHQ has asked any Conservative MP standing down at the next election to inform them within the next fortnight, so there's a chance we see a few more marginal-seat MPs, or older grandees announcing their retirements in the coming days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Smith had a cancer scare quite recently, which may have aided this decision.

[TheTide]

The by-election in 2009 produced an interesting result due to it being held around the time of the expenses scandal. Both UKIP and the Greens polled well and Craig Murray received almost 1,000 votes standing on a 'Put An Honest Man Into Parliament' ticket, ahead of the BNP (which was more or less at its height). Labour got around 18% of the vote - diabolically low for a seat like that.

Following politics at that time, particularly online, was quite depressing (not that it ever isn't). The subject of the BNP (who had an army of trolls across the political internet) was so often at the forefront and the Tory critique of Labour's economic record was portrayed as fact by pretty much the entire media, including those parts supposed to be impartial......

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The by-election, of course, was caused by the resignation of Ian Gibson under a massive expenses-related cloud. He insisted that he had done nothing wrong (in reality he was lucky to avoid prosecution) and resigned to spite his party as he had been barred from seeking re-election at the next GE.

[Torrain]

Another high-profile retirement announced this evening - William Wragg, Vice-Chairman of the 1922 committee, and Chairman of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee.

He's only 34, and played a high-profile role in the defenestration of two Conservative PMs this year.

Wragg represents the fairly-marginal Hazel Grove, which was Lib Dem from 1997-2015, with that party maintaing a strong second-place ever since (Wragg's majority has shrunk each election since his first victory, from over 6K, to about 4.4K).

[Lechasseur]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63727562?utm_campaign=later-linkinbio-bbcnews&utm_content=later-31226638&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkin.bio

The Supreme Court has ruled that Scotland can not hold an independance referendum without the UK Government's consent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never any chance that it would have ruled differently: the constitutional position is very clear and the Court is (and rightly so) 'conservative' by default in its readings and interpretations of the law.

[Torrain]

Few more polls released Mon-Wed this week:

Redfield and Wilton:

• Labour 49% (+1)
• Conservative 28% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 5% (–)
• Green 4% (–)
• SNP 4% (-1)
• Other 2% (+1)

YouGov:

• Labour 47% (-1)
• Conservative 26% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 6% (+1)
• SNP 5% (-)
• Green 5% (-)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait I'm sorry why are people shocked that a near-billionaire would pay money for better healthcare?

[Torrain]

Wait I'm sorry why are people shocked that a near-billionaire would pay money for better healthcare?

It's not surprising, but it's still a bad look, especially if you try to dodge the question, then are caught out, as Sunak was.

The political problem is that the NHS is the third-rail of British politics. Using using private healthcare is actually a taboo in some social circles - and given most can't afford it (and almost all think that they shouldn't have to), it's often seen as a sign of elitism or "jumping the queue", especially when the queue-jumping is being done by someone who is viewed as creating issues in the NHS through tough budget measures when he was Chancellor, and voting for COVID measures that are seen as contributing to the current backlogs.

When Boris Johnson was hospitalised with COVID, he used it as an oppourtunity to praise the NHS staff who treated him, raising it whenever health was mentioned. Even suggesting that some point-of-entry services be privatised is met with resistance, on and offline.

Here's some polling on the NHS from this summer:

To what extent should three key principles of the NHS apply?
 
Does the NHS have a funding problem?
 

[CumbrianLefty]

Few more post-budget polls released Mon-Wed this week:

Redfield and Wilton:

• Labour 49% (+1)
• Conservative 28% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 5% (–)
• Green 4% (–)
• SNP 4% (-1)
• Other 2% (+1)

YouGov:

• Labour 47% (-1)
• Conservative 26% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
• Reform UK 6% (+1)
• SNP 5% (-)
• Green 5% (-)

Looks like the budget's not really had an impact either way - mostly seems like statistical noise at this point...

YouGov poll was actually done 15-16 Nov (ie *before* the not-Budget)

[Torrain]

YouGov poll was actually done 15-16 Nov (ie *before* the not-Budget)

My bad - should have double-checked that...
Not sure why they've sat on that poll for so long.