UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Oryxslayer]

Ian Blackford has resigned as parliamentary SNP leader. This is obviously cause of the infighting, but its interesting it comes 1 day after a Scotland regional poll was finally released:

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1598000771085537280?s=20&t=zkU3N6...

[Torrain]

Ian Blackford has resigned as parliamentary SNP leader. This is obviously cause of the infighting, but its interesting it comes 1 day after a Scotland regional poll was finally released

Aye, modelling it out produces some… startling results. https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1598000418428456962

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

God love Lib Dem North East Fife!

[Torrain]

Some *incredible* new attack ads from CCHQ:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1598318946989621251

We must be about two media cycles away from this:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have they hired Max Bialystok as their director of strategy or something?

[afleitch]

Nothing beats this parody gem.

And yes, the cost of children's shoes was actually something politicians talked about

[Silent Hunter]

Well, children's clothing is zero-rated for VAT:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vat-on-young-childrens-clothing-and-footwear-notice-714

[Torrain]

I’m sorry to post dark news at this hour - and I know anything posted by journalists at the Sun should’ve treated with skepticism- but this sounds serious:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1598450600747978765
Best I can tell, this is distinct to the *other* Conservative MP accused of sexual assault, who’s been asked to stay away from Westminster for the past 5 or 6 months.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Johnson has informed his constituency party in Uxbridge that he intends to stand again.

Feels notable. Any plan to switch seats to run somewhere safer in the Home Counties (floated repeatedly over the past year) is now essentially over. Either he bails last minute, or runs in a seat that’s going to be a tad marginal.

The Telegraph (who broke the story) are wish-casting that this indicates a leadership challenge against Sunak is on the cards after the local elections next May.

Johnson challenging Sunak and winning would not meaningfully help the Tories but would likely give Labour the better-than-a-Portillo-moment satisfaction of seeing the incumbent PM lose his seat. But I imagine the Telegraph is too far into the cult of Boris to think this way.

[Silent Hunter]

It's possible that a suspension in either case, before any charges, may have been advised against on legal grounds due to the risk of identifying the victim.

[TheTide]

Sajid Javid has announced his departure at the next election. Someone who could have been Prime Minister at some point in the past few years if certain events had played out differently.

[Torrain]

Johnson has informed his constituency party in Uxbridge that he intends to stand again.

Feels notable. Any plan to switch seats to run somewhere safer in the Home Counties (floated repeatedly over the past year) is now essentially over. Either he bails last minute, or runs in a seat that’s going to be a tad marginal.

The Telegraph (who broke the story) are wish-casting that this indicates a leadership challenge against Sunak is on the cards after the local elections next May.

Johnson challenging Sunak and winning would not meaningfully help the Tories but would likely give Labour the better-than-a-Portillo-moment satisfaction of seeing the incumbent PM lose his seat. But I imagine the Telegraph is too far into the cult of Boris to think this way.

Aye - their political editor (Chris Hope) was one of the chief cheerleaders when Johnson was preparing a run to succeed Truss. They legitimately seem to think he’ll be able to come back, absolved of all sin, and restore enough of the 2019 coalition to save the party. And if they don’t believe it, they’re spending a lot of ink trying to convince the country that they do.

[Torrain]

Sajid Javid has announced his departure at the next election. Someone who could have been Prime Minister at some point in the past few years if certain events had played out differently.

His Bromsgrove seat has been Tory since the 70s, and was only predicted to flip to Labour at the very depths of the Truss premiership - so it seems he’s just unhappy with the thought of a long spell of opposition, where he wouldn’t be on either front bench.

Still - it’s another departure that’s hardly going to bless Sunak, especially on the same day we got the Chester results.

[Conservatopia]

It's possible that a suspension in either case, before any charges, may have been advised against on legal grounds due to the risk of identifying the victim.

It's always frustrating when the usual suspects start screaming about an accused MP not being named and suspended. There's no good reason to identify the MP in the mainstream press and plenty of reasons why it wouldn't be a good idea such as the risk that the accusation is false and the possibility of identifying the victim. Besides, suspension makes little difference anyway.

But seriously to quote my fellow south-westerner Brenda: "Not anotheRR one?!"
This Parliament has so many bad eggs it's unreal.

[Blair]

Sadie clearly had more of a spine than most Conservative MPs but I struggle to see what his legacy will be- maybe it’s because he was never in a post for long enough but he held about 15 cabinet jobs and I struggle to think of a policy area he really changed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sadie clearly had more of a spine than most Conservative MPs but I struggle to see what his legacy will be- maybe it’s because he was never in a post for long enough but he held about 15 cabinet jobs and I struggle to think of a policy area he really changed.

In a way, he was the John Reid of this Tory period.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1598675028966531074?s=46&t=0rMKs6jY...

it’s over for torycels

[TheTide]

East Anglia has something of a 1945 look on that map.

Probably underestimates the Lib Dems too.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not going to happen, surely. But still.....

The pundits who have tried to claim Labour's result in Chester wasn't very good actually, are a bit out of touch with the current mood I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not going to happen, surely. But still.....

The pundits who have tried to claim Labour's result in Chester wasn't very good actually, are very out of touch with the current mood I think.

'It is perfectly fine and healthy when a government party loses a by-election by forty points in a demographically average constituency that was triggered by the opposition MP resigning due to being exposed as a sex pest' is certainly... an argument. We must all admit that it is an argument.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1598675028966531074?s=46&t=0rMKs6jY...
it’s over for torycels

So if this poll plays itself out in the actual 2024 election, the Conservative Party suffers a devastating blow but at least survives the impact, barely.  I read somewhere that it has to retain at least a hundred seats in the House of Commons if it wants to live to fight another election.

[JimJamUK]

So if this poll plays itself out in the actual 2024 election, the Conservative Party suffers a devastating blow but at least survives the impact, barely. I read somewhere that it has to retain at least a hundred seats in the House of Commons if it wants to live to fight another election.

The Conservative Party will live on regardless of how bad the result in 2024 is. At a stretch, you could argue that they would implode by 2029 if Reform won more seats and became the official opposition, but that’s not exactly a likely scenario. Ultimately, the UK electorate will always deliver a significant minority of the vote to a right of centre party, a diminishing but still significant proportion of the electorate have some partisan attachment to the Conservative Party specifically (and quite a few more de facto given their NotLabour position), and the Conservative Party itself has a substantial party operation (its currently in government, has 100s of MPs, 1000s of councillors, over 100000 members, a partisan media etc). They are unlikely to fall below 100 MPs and even if they somehow did they would recover in time.

[Torrain]

Another rebellion on the cards, apparently.

Sunak has announced that the ban on new grammar schools will remain in place. This has infuriated pro-grammar MPs like Jonathan Gullis. Gullis (who took pro-grammars lobbying hospitality while he was Schools Minister), is now gathering support (including selective-schooling fan Graham Brady) to amend the upcoming Schools Bill, currently under review by the Education Secretary.

Not likely to go anywhere (they're hardly going to get opposition support for the motion to pass) - but it does feel like party discipline is plumbing new lows if even Jonathan Gullis thinks he can defeat the government. After the Villiers amendment on housing, and the onshore wind motion, we seem to be averaging one public rebellion per week at the minute.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that we've reached the 'It's a feint!' stage...

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1599372377938624513

[CumbrianLefty]

Zahawi's ability to utter complete rubbish with a totally poker face is one of his main strengths tbf.